The Weather Thread 2023

[Sheffield Steve]

51 minutes ago, Supermerv said:

What does this really mean though? Looking at the scale on the rain chart, it seems to mean that there is a 0-10% chance that rainfall during festival week will be above average, but what's average? If average means a brief shower, then could above average mean 2 brief showers? Also is it only up to a 10% chance that this is correct? If thats the case then those are pretty good odds.

Any chance someone could explain this to me please?

Yes, you make some good points.  All these charts show are predicted temperature and rainfall compared to the average for that period over a previous 30-year period.  The computer does 51 runs using slightly different parameters to get an average prediction for the week.

The average for the period of the festival in SW England is:

Maximum temperature : 18c

Number of days with rain : 2

Amount of rainfall : 12mm (1/2 inch)

So the rainfall chart is predicting that over the course of the 5 days rainfall will be 10% higher than the average, ie. 13mm.  So, in terms of any kind of specifics at this range, it doesn’t help much.  But as a general indicator it can give you an idea of what the model expects.  In this case, over 1/2 inch rainfall and max temps between 19-22c.  
 

And it’s not true to just dismiss this data as irrelevant and say it’s TOO EARLY. Businesses like farmers and supermarkets pay companies using this data millions of pounds a year to predict the weather. So can it tell us if it’s going to rain just as Sir Elton comes on stage? No, of course not. But does it tell us that there is a slightly higher risk at this stage of a slightly wetter and warmer festival?  Yes.

[Control Shift Delete]

I’ll stick with Metcheck ☀️ 

[hodgey123]

Not going to this year's festival unfortunately, but was always gripped by this thread when I had a ticket. Looking back, ticketless, it is hilarious how similar/almost identical this thread is to last year's, and the year before's, and the year before's. It really is pointless this far out.

[PolygonWindow]

1 minute ago, hodgey123 said:

Not going to this year's festival unfortunately, but was always gripped by this thread when I had a ticket. Looking back, ticketless, it is hilarious how similar/almost identical this thread is to last year's, and the year before's, and the year before's. It really is pointless this far out.

the 2016 thread is in the hall of fame. It's absolutely goated.

[Supermerv]

54 minutes ago, Sheffield Steve said:

Yes, you make some good points.  All these charts show are predicted temperature and rainfall compared to the average for that period over a previous 30-year period.  The computer does 51 runs using slightly different parameters to get an average prediction for the week.

The average for the period of the festival in SW England is:

Maximum temperature : 18c

Number of days with rain : 2

Amount of rainfall : 12mm (1/2 inch)

So the rainfall chart is predicting that over the course of the 5 days rainfall will be 10% higher than the average, ie. 13mm.  So, in terms of any kind of specifics at this range, it doesn’t help much.  But as a general indicator it can give you an idea of what the model expects.  In this case, over 1/2 inch rainfall and max temps between 19-22c.  
 

And it’s not true to just dismiss this data as irrelevant and say it’s TOO EARLY. Businesses like farmers and supermarkets pay companies using this data millions of pounds a year to predict the weather. So can it tell us if it’s going to rain just as Sir Elton comes on stage? No, of course not. But does it tell us that there is a slightly higher risk at this stage of a slightly wetter and warmer festival?  Yes.

OK, thanks for the explanation, it certainly makes a lot more sense now. Just to clarify one thing regarding the rainfall prediction, its an estimate of the amount of rain that will fall, not the possibility that the amount of rainfall will exceed the average?

[Barneym]

9 minutes ago, Control Shift Delete said:

I’ll stick with Metcheck ☀️ 

With rain everyday except the Wednesday? No thanks 

[4AssedMonkey]

11 minutes ago, Control Shift Delete said:

I’ll stick with Metcheck ☀️ 

Too wet.  Too cool.  Twist.

[Control Shift Delete]

14 minutes ago, Barneym said:

With rain everyday except the Wednesday? No thanks 

Temperatures in the shade. With a max rainfall of 0.9mm (tiny, just enough to keep the dust down)

[Skip997]

Just now, Control Shift Delete said:

Temperatures in the shade. With a max rainfall of 0.9mm (tiny, just enough to keep the dust down)

This is what people don't/refuse to understand. A tiny shower now and again is a good thing.

[Barneym]

10 minutes ago, Control Shift Delete said:

Temperatures in the shade. With a max rainfall of 0.9mm (tiny, just enough to keep the dust down)

I like the temperature. How much rain would still allow me to wear trainers, if that is low enough then fine I’ll change my mind 

[The Nal]

Met Office forecasting "thundery showers"

This is a disaster.

[TGCarr]

7 minutes ago, The Nal said:

Met Office forecasting "thundery showers"

This is a disaster.

“An uncertain second half to the month. The most likely scenario is for dry settled conditions in the north, and a risk of rain or showers, perhaps thundery, in the south. Winds may ease over the period leading to temperatures increasing to average to above average in eastern areas; elsewhere in the UK, it is likely to feel warm to rather warm.”

[CaledonianGonzo]

1 hour ago, Skip997 said:

This is what people don't/refuse to understand. A tiny shower now and again is a good thing.

They understand the point being made - they just disagree with it. Rain to "keep the dust down" can f**k off and then f**k off a bit more.

[Lizzim]

9 minutes ago, TGCarr said:

“An uncertain second half to the month. The most likely scenario is for dry settled conditions in the north, and a risk of rain or showers, perhaps thundery, in the south. Winds may ease over the period leading to temperatures increasing to average to above average in eastern areas; elsewhere in the UK, it is likely to feel warm to rather warm.”

I don't want dry in the north, I want some rain to keep my garden alive.with hot and sunny in the south 

[churlie100]

21 minutes ago, The Nal said:

Met Office forecasting "thundery showers"

This is a disaster.

Nice to see the standard of measured emotions and expectations in the weather thread is the same as ever.

[Franky]

1 hour ago, Skip997 said:

This is what people don't/refuse to understand. A tiny shower now and again is a good thing.

Heretic 😂

[Franky]

6 minutes ago, CaledonianGonzo said:

They understand the point being made - they just disagree with it. Rain to "keep the dust down" can f**k off and then f**k off a bit more.

Post of the day for me so far 👍😂☀️

[briddj]

2 hours ago, Sheffield Steve said:

Yes, you make some good points.  All these charts show are predicted temperature and rainfall compared to the average for that period over a previous 30-year period.  The computer does 51 runs using slightly different parameters to get an average prediction for the week.

The average for the period of the festival in SW England is:

Maximum temperature : 18c

Number of days with rain : 2

Amount of rainfall : 12mm (1/2 inch)

So the rainfall chart is predicting that over the course of the 5 days rainfall will be 10% higher than the average, ie. 13mm.  So, in terms of any kind of specifics at this range, it doesn’t help much.  But as a general indicator it can give you an idea of what the model expects.  In this case, over 1/2 inch rainfall and max temps between 19-22c.  
 

And it’s not true to just dismiss this data as irrelevant and say it’s TOO EARLY. Businesses like farmers and supermarkets pay companies using this data millions of pounds a year to predict the weather. So can it tell us if it’s going to rain just as Sir Elton comes on stage? No, of course not. But does it tell us that there is a slightly higher risk at this stage of a slightly wetter and warmer festival?  Yes.

Not dismissing anything...

 

BUT....

 

Three weeks ago the end of May was going to be a washout, and it didn't rain at all.

 

Thus, I will stand by TOO EARLY if the chart shows any rain.

Edited June 2, 2023 by briddj

[4AssedMonkey]

1 hour ago, Skip997 said:

This is what people don't/refuse to understand. A tiny shower now and again is a good thing.

Dust + rain = mud.  Bad. Very bad.

[sime]

1 hour ago, Skip997 said:

This is what people don't/refuse to understand. A tiny shower now and again is a good thing.

I agree. I don't mind a bit of rain over a hot Glastonbury. I find it a bit refreshing. Helps with my hayfever too.

[rosieangel]

2 hours ago, PolygonWindow said:

the 2016 thread is in the hall of fame. It's absolutely goated.

I think it was the 2019 one for me that absolutely transfixed me - the days of thinking it would be like the somme and then all of a sudden it becomes hotter than hell and we all lost our minds it had me weeping

[Crazyfool01]

2 hours ago, hodgey123 said:

Not going to this year's festival unfortunately, but was always gripped by this thread when I had a ticket. Looking back, ticketless, it is hilarious how similar/almost identical this thread is to last year's, and the year before's, and the year before's. It really is pointless this far out.

Thats why I love it 🙂 in a weird kind of way 

[Bike_Like_A_Mum]

I can't see myself wearing anything other than jogging bottoms, jumpers and a dressing gown at the moment. It's freeeeeezing in the East. Beginning of June and we've had the heating on and everyone I know is in the same position. Don't know where these warmer than average temperatures are?! Seriously, everyone near me still wearing coats. Keeps saying the temperature should be 17-18 but we're not getting past 13-14 and the wind makes it feel even colder!! Someone explain? It's got me so worried for camping in it, can't get warm at all!! Please tell me its warmer in the west?!! Never known a May/June like it, its rubbish!!!

[Justcalledtosay]

It's been loitering between 16 - 22 in north yorkshire for the last two weeks or so.

[Crazyfool01]

17 minutes ago, Bike_Like_A_Mum said:

I can't see myself wearing anything other than jogging bottoms, jumpers and a dressing gown at the moment. It's freeeeeezing in the East. Beginning of June and we've had the heating on and everyone I know is in the same position. Don't know where these warmer than average temperatures are?! Seriously, everyone near me still wearing coats. Keeps saying the temperature should be 17-18 but we're not getting past 13-14 and the wind makes it feel even colder!! Someone explain? It's got me so worried for camping in it, can't get warm at all!! Please tell me its warmer in the west?!! Never known a May/June like it, its rubbish!!!

shorts and t-shirts weather down here .... ive got t-shirt tan lines