The Weather Thread 2023

[tarw]

4 minutes ago, badger80 said:

You only really need them unless it's apocalyptic conditions on site. Put some in the boot of your car, just in case.  Walking boots all the way! 

No walking shoes. Walking boots in the car if it’s apocalyptic 

[cerv]

Met Office still sounding a bit meh

[parsonjack]

49 minutes ago, albinolove said:

This morning I woke up my wife at 0630 with the immortal words “ @briddj has some good news for us from the 18z”

Maybe that’s this years flag?

Do you have a good solicitor?

😉

[CaledonianGonzo]

I pack the same regardless of forecast. It can change pretty quickly so you should always take kit for every eventuality.

[The Nal]

45 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Mate, I'm sorry for every bad word I've ever said to/about your behaviour on this thread - because you vanish from this thread for a day and it becomes "it's almost certainly going to be hot every year".

I didn't think this thread needed someone telling people constantly it was going to be an apocalypse, but bizarrely, it does.

 

 

 

51 minutes ago, stopwn1981 said:

https://twitter.com/gavinpartridge/status/1669338286073200643?s=46&t=xboFxe-Q_ZdZpy-aA_a-7w

Gav's just spending the day with his family and then he'll get to work

 

 

 

Edited June 15, 2023 by The Nal

[fightoffyour]

Forecasting accuracy has presumably also improved exponentially since 2005.

[briddj]

20 minutes ago, cerv said:

Met Office still sounding a bit meh

That's exactly what we are seeing on the GFS. Doesn't read meh to me. The south is a big place!

Edited June 15, 2023 by briddj

[BluePaul]

21 minutes ago, turricandanz said:

Walking boots are a total last resort for me.... Trainers or Sliders..... or bare foot 😛

 

You put little beefburgers on your feet?

Each to their own.

[Guest]

Weather forecasts for this area are quite often inaccurate. I think the Mendip hills can skew the figures. I've lost count of the number of BBQ's I've had in the pouring rain when the BBC app is showing full sun.

[Crazyfool01]

Ah great I see we’ve moved on to the less sensitive walking boot / welly debate … festival must be close now 😀

[chazwwe]

Walking boots and crocs this year. 

[2019]

3 hours ago, Bike_Like_A_Mum said:

Still no idea what I'm looking at

Sorry for the delay, I had to pop to Tesco.

I'm definitely not an expert on this...

The colourful wavey lines indicate wind strength. Each line is a different weather forecast model, most of the chat is around the GSF model but there are lots of others.

I use the Beaufort scale, as I find it easier to understand than a mph or metres per second. So the number 3 means force 3, or a gentle breeze. The arrow next to the number is the direction the wind is blowing to. 

If the lines are close together, then it could be interpreted that the models closely agree with each other, and that the possibility that the forecast is right increases.

The forecast temperature through the days is probably self explanatory. The application I use, considers the ecmwf (orange) model to be the most accurate, so the temperature is extracted from that.

Some models also give rainfall in mm/3 hour, and this can be seen in the bottom half. Fortunately these are mostly zero, so dry, with a bump around 7pm, hence my daft quip about spilling beer.

There's also other stuff around relative humidity, cloud ceiling/cover and barometric pressure. 

[4AssedMonkey]

36 minutes ago, chazwwe said:

Walking boots and crocs this year. 

Straight red card.  Off you go.

[Jacko45]

Gig tonight just walked to the shop for some road beers and lord it's humid, sweating cobs and I'm fairly fit lad.

[MEGABOWL]

5 minutes ago, Jacko45 said:

Gig tonight just walked to the shop for some road beers and lord it's humid, sweating cobs and I'm fairly fit lad.

I went to Chvrches at Barrowlands on Sunday. Barrowlands is sweaty in November so it was close to unbearable. Lauren Mayberry had to go off and change after a few songs.

[kerplunk]

2 hours ago, Jose Pose said:

My posts are simply saying that data that spans from 1991 (three decades ago) to 2020, isn’t going to be representative of how often we can expect to see temps of 25+ from 2023 into 2034 and so on. Do you disagree?

Maybe, but the data doesn't offer much confidence about that, there are 10yr periods of no warming and even cooling trend - see 2002-2012 in the graph you posted for example.

Such as it is with the high variability in the obs at the local level.

I've argued with global warming deniers for too long to be extrapolating from small sample sizes like glastonburys since 2016.

[Glastonlocal]

Any chance there could be a separate thread for climate chat and we keep this one mainly on the weather next week?

[Glastonlocal]

(hello everyone) 

When's the 12z then? 😃

[kerplunk]

2 minutes ago, Glastonlocal said:

Any chance there could be a separate thread for climate chat and we keep this one mainly on the weather next week?

seconded 😄

[catavento]

12Z looking good so far apart from it still keeping the bit where we're queuing and putting up tents in Wednesday afternoon rain... if that's the price for the rest of it being dry then I'd happily pay it

 

[Jacko45]

Just now, catavento said:

12Z looking good so far apart from it still keeping the bit where we're queuing and putting up tents in Wednesday afternoon rain... if that's the price for the rest of it being dry then I'd happily pay it

 

 

How much rain though?

We need full synopsis

[DYRTFT]

4 minutes ago, Jacko45 said:

 

How much rain though?

We need full synopsis

Couple mm Wednesday afternoon then completely dry. Sunday temps looking 🥵☀️

[Euphoricape]

Warmer temperatures on this run! Bit of light rain Wednesday afternoon and that's it. Just gets better with each run.

[Bovla]

Yeah looks like another very good run, some reasonable showers Wednesday late afternoon but after that dry all the way - looking a classic. Leave the wellies at home

[briddj]

Let's GO GO GO on the 12Z

THROUGH TO GATES OPEN

Still plenty of rain on Sunday, and I think we can see that as pretty much locked in now.

A small amount of rain possible on Tuesday but really it's a dry gain.

Monday and Tuesday have temps of 21 - excellent for drying that Sunday rain.

By 9am on Wednesday morning for gates open, it's completely dry with pleasant temperatures of 17.

During the day on Wednesday, there is a small increase in rainfall on this run, but nothing much more. Highs of 21.

THURSDAY

Completely dry, with highs of 23.

FRIDAY

Here comes the FINGER!

Completely dry, highs of 25.

SATURDAY

This finger is really taking hold! Completely dry and highs of 25.

SUNDAY

Completely dry, highs of 27.

SUMMARY

Scorchio! But too scorchio for some?

Bar the small amount of extra rain on Wednesday afternoon, this is another brilliant run with all the Friday rain now gone.

As you can see, the finger is stronger this time! Latest on the right.