The Weather Thread 2023

[frostypaw]

27 minutes ago, sprocketrocket said:

wish I'd thought of that in 2005 

Ah the joyous days before folk trying to cram tents into already full fields decided it was all the fault of the gazebos they could see above the tents.

Weather thread still funny. Poor run and everyone declares game over and has a meltdown, good run and everyone starts worrying it'll change. These things do not make sense together folks.

But I'm fully aware nothing will stop this chain reaction now. As our 2hatted friend points out it's an annual cruelty really, but a mostly self-inflicted one. Carry on.

Latest ensemble run in graph form with the pressure line included so y'all can confirm how silly it is imagining it knows what's coming yet. 

[___DGH___]

This would suggest the likelihood of rain all week is minimal or am I interpreting what Gav is saying wrong - 

 Again, it’s models but doesn’t look bad to me.

[Sasperella2]

Then why does Met Check look like we're going to need a bigger Ark??? 7.1mm on Wednesday morning!

[CR77]

1 minute ago, Sasperella2 said:

Then why does Met Check look like we're going to need a bigger Ark??? 7.1mm on Wednesday morning!

...yes, it says 7.1mm of rain, but only with a 14% risk (or certainty) of that actually happening...!

 

[frostypaw]

4 minutes ago, Sasperella2 said:

Then why does Met Check look like we're going to need a bigger Ark??? 7.1mm on Wednesday morning!

Because it's based off the raw GFS main run - the black line in the graph I posted above. There it is - weds morning, tonnes of wet.

But you can also see it's the almost the only run of the 20 suggesting that might happen.

It has no idea this far out. The red line shows you the average of the runs, not much rain if any.

[Trunks1993]

35 minutes ago, frostypaw said:

Ah the joyous days before folk trying to cram tents into already full fields decided it was all the fault of the gazebos they could see above the tents.

Weather thread still funny. Poor run and everyone declares game over and has a meltdown, good run and everyone starts worrying it'll change. These things do not make sense together folks.

But I'm fully aware nothing will stop this chain reaction now. As our 2hatted friend points out it's an annual cruelty really, but a mostly self-inflicted one. Carry on.

Latest ensemble run in graph form with the pressure line included so y'all can confirm how silly it is imagining it knows what's coming yet. 

wrong thread to apply any common sense/logic mate

[Duggyfresh44]

33 minutes ago, ___DGH___ said:

This would suggest the likelihood of rain all week is minimal or am I interpreting what Gav is saying wrong - 

 Again, it’s models but doesn’t look bad to me.

That’s a good forecast. I think the lesson

hereis don’t look at individual GFS runs. 

[frostypaw]

2 minutes ago, Trunks1993 said:

wrong thread to apply any common sense/logic mate

I try to think of it hovering over the margins like a cumulonimbus staying in the next valley

[Sasperella2]

7 minutes ago, CR77 said:

...yes, it says 7.1mm of rain, but only with a 14% risk (or certainty) of that actually happening...!

 

 

5 minutes ago, frostypaw said:

Because it's based off the raw GFS main run - the black line in the graph I posted above. There it is - weds morning, tonnes of wet.

Ok, ok ***breath***

 

[Punksnotdead]

5 hours ago, fightoffyour said:

22C in full sun yesterday was perfect. Borderline taps aff. When the sun went in it was too cold so 25 daytime max is ideal. If you have to wear a tshirt, let alone a hoodie, it's basically too cold.

If it's hot enough for taps aff, then it's too hot!

Who wants to be crammed in with a load of sweaty, topless men who haven't showered for 4 days? Yuck!

[Skip997]

6 minutes ago, Punksnotdead said:

If it's hot enough for taps aff, then it's too hot!

Who wants to be crammed in with a load of sweaty, topless men who haven't showered for 4 days? Yuck!

Or topless men at all

Edited June 9, 2023 by Skip997

[CaledonianGonzo]

You'd better believe that that tap is coming aff.

[The Nal]

[briddj]

22 minutes ago, Duggyfresh44 said:

That’s a good forecast. I think the lesson

hereis don’t look at individual GFS runs. 

56 minutes until the next GFS starts rolling into town.

[PolygonWindow]

 

Don’t even understand this lol. Timescales all over the gaff

Edited June 9, 2023 by PolygonWindow

[Crazyfool01]

39 minutes ago, Sasperella2 said:

Then why does Met Check look like we're going to need a bigger Ark??? 7.1mm on Wednesday morning!

Certainly not floating my boat that 

[Euphoricape]

6 minutes ago, PolygonWindow said:

 

Don’t even understand this lol. Timescales all over the gaff

That's just noise

[PolygonWindow]

Just now, Euphoricape said:

That's just noise

Just seems a whole load of waffle. Hurting my head trying to work out Wed-Sun nxt wk lol

[MEGATRONICMEATWAGON]

How much damage would 7.1mm do anyway? A lot would drain away and soak onto the ground. Leaving it nice and spongey to walk on, no dust swirling around in your eyeballs.

[stopwn1981]

8 minutes ago, MEGATRONICMEATWAGON said:

How much damage would 7.1mm do anyway? A lot would drain away and soak onto the ground. Leaving it nice and spongey to walk on, no dust swirling around in your eyeballs.

12 hour queue into the car park like 2016

[MEGATRONICMEATWAGON]

9 minutes ago, stopwn1981 said:

12 hour queue into the car park like 2016

Nice and spongey then 😅

[Ayrshire Chris]

f**king hell, I decide to avoid this thread for an afternoon and come on to find the doom mongers have taken over. In other words , the usual e fest weather thread.

[dotdash79]

26 minutes ago, MEGATRONICMEATWAGON said:

How much damage would 7.1mm do anyway? A lot would drain away and soak onto the ground. Leaving it nice and spongey to walk on, no dust swirling around in your eyeballs.

depend on over how much time

7 hours it's drizzle, 30 min and it's heavy

https://www.weather.gov/lox/rainrate

[CR77]

1 hour ago, dotdash79 said:

depend on over how much time

7 hours it's drizzle, 30 min and it's heavy

https://www.weather.gov/lox/rainrate

Metcheck has now removed the "14% risk of 7.1mm" for that timeslot and replaced it with 0.0mm anyway!

The various forecasts right now seem to point towards a fair amount of drizzle popping up here and there, but nothing that requires wellies imo.

[Phoenix Girl]

The drama of this thread is unrivalled. Can’t wait for the next instalment.