The Weather Thread 2023

[Havors]

2 minutes ago, 2019 said:

Icon7 having a 'mare for Tuesday 13th. 3" of rain. I think this is model error.

That's this Tuesday coming... we need to see next Tuesday haha 

[CaledonianGonzo]

Still could do without 3 inches shafting the site at any point in time.

[Duggyfresh44]

12 minutes ago, CaledonianGonzo said:

Still could do without 3 inches shafting the site at any point in time.

It’ll just run off, it’s so dry. There might be flash flooding though so not good for the set up crews. 

[squirrelarmy]

1 hour ago, stopwn1981 said:

Gav dropping an update shortly - put your tin hats on

I’ll stick with straw. Less conductive if there’s lightning around. 

[Sheffield Steve]

Yep, Gav has posted and as he’s using the GFS, pretty much agrees with what we were saying earlier.  Unsettled with potentially heavy thundery rain around. But too early for any detail….

 

[2019]

1 hour ago, Havors said:

That's this Tuesday coming... we need to see next Tuesday haha 

For sure. Next Tuesday is a bit far off too have any real meaning, but this is what the app shows, and it's not that bad.

 

 

[Euphoricape]

Latest ecm is showing the high remaining in control and not going with any weather breakdown. 

# According to the netweather peoples.

Edited June 11, 2023 by Euphoricape

[Duggyfresh44]

4 minutes ago, Euphoricape said:

Latest ecm is showing the high remaining in control and not going with any weather breakdown. 

# According to the netweather peoples.

 

[WarlyBarly]

How accurate have these long distance forecasts been on the past?  Slightly filling me full of dred what I’ve read today.

[Leyrulion]

1 hour ago, CaledonianGonzo said:

Still could do without 3 inches shafting the site at any point in time.

Some rain in advance now would be really helpful. If it's bone dry the chance of flooding is higher as the ground won't absorb anything.

[Ayrshire Chris]

1 minute ago, WarlyBarly said:

How accurate have these long distance forecasts been on the past?  Slightly filling me full of dred what I’ve read today.

Incredibly unreliable and not accurate.  There’s a reason why the met office only gives a weeks forecast. It starts getting more reliable the weekend before the festival.  It’s been such a dry spell the build has proceeded without damage to the ground by the lorries etc. 

[Euphoricape]

6 minutes ago, Duggyfresh44 said:

 

So I take it the ecm is more reliable? Got to be good news then.

[sprocketrocket]

2 hours ago, briddj said:

Ok, time for the first full breakdown running into the festival!

A biblical set of charts for Tuesday night ahead of gates opening.

Rain around through the day on Wednesday, though not the worst.

However, low pressure remains over the UK with max temps of just 16

 

Small amounts of rain around again through Thursday. Highs of 18.

 

 

We go into the main part of the festival itself now.

Temperatures have improved up to 20 and high pressure begins to return to the UK.

There is a small amount of rain around on Friday afternoon, and overnight into Saturday.

Into the weekend now, very small amount of rain around on Saturday morning but that clears by midday. Highs of 18

 

Sunday also has a small amount of rain around - but warming up considerably with highs of 23.

SUMMARY

The rain on Tuesday could cause some issues for arrival morning, while temperatures aren't close to what we've seen before and the warm-up is delayed until Sunday.

But it's TOO EARLY.

 

FFS, I go away for a weekend and you lot let the 'keep the dust down' wierdos take charge... This isn't acceptable. 

No f**king clouds

No f**king rain

No f**king compromise 

[CaledonianGonzo]

Love the netweather lads.

[Tomothy123]

3 hours ago, Avalon_Fields said:

Living on the Edge

Where abouts are you Avalon_fields? 
that arrow could be in my back garden! 
I’m Tottington, bury. And that rain a few hours ago was biblical! 

[Euphoricape]

14 minutes ago, CaledonianGonzo said:

Love the netweather lads.

A great bunch of lads

[duggyfresh32]

5 minutes ago, Euphoricape said:

A great bunch of lads

 

[PolygonWindow]

Yeah, this ain't good. Probs our biggest blow yet given we've been slagging the GFS off in favour of this ECMWF.

 

 

Edited June 11, 2023 by PolygonWindow

[Euphoricape]

1 minute ago, PolygonWindow said:

Yeah, this ain't good. Probs our biggest blow yet given we've been slagging the GFS off in favour of this.

 

 

Which model is this?

[PolygonWindow]

Just now, Euphoricape said:

Which model is this?

ECMWF daily runs. Called IFS on their site!

[duggyfresh32]

1 minute ago, PolygonWindow said:

ECMWF daily runs. Called IFS on their site!

OH FFS

[FuzzyDunlop]

11 minutes ago, Tomothy123 said:

Where abouts are you Avalon_fields? 
that arrow could be in my back garden! 
I’m Tottington, bury. And that rain a few hours ago was biblical! 

Heywood didnt get it that bad (it was hard, but not out of the ordinary)... & you are only about 3 or 4 miles away from me. 

Still really humid outside around here.

 

.

[Euphoricape]

3 minutes ago, PolygonWindow said:

ECMWF daily runs. Called IFS on their site!

Can't see it on there..?

This is the discussion from most recent ecm run on the site:

 

[tazbang]

Time for an ensemble! While quite a few runs are showing small rain spikes, the Wednesday drenching on the operational run is a big outlier. 

[stuartbert two hats]

56 minutes ago, Duggyfresh44 said:

 

Just what I was going to say.