The Weather Thread 2023

[PolygonWindow]

5 minutes ago, Euphoricape said:

Can't see it on there..?

This is the discussion from most recent ecm run on the site:

 

Extended run (showing weekly avg rain for festival week):

https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A[]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Extended (42 days)"]}

 

medium range (showing rainfall up until the Wednesday gates opening):

https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A[]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Medium (15 days)"]}

 

I guess the guys on that forum think this run potentially looks better than the previous and the risk of a breakdown is reducing? Not sure how the extended stuff works tbh but it updates daily on the IFS version about 9pm. Medium range twice in morning and evening.

[nikkic]

59 minutes ago, WarlyBarly said:

How accurate have these long distance forecasts been on the past?  Slightly filling me full of dred what I’ve read today.

About as accurate as a blind sniper 

[Leyrulion]

I'm gonna need to set off on the Sunday, I currently think I'm gonna have to pack for everything but no wellies. 

What's the best one to look at when making a final decision?

[stopwn1981]

Is it still over? Or is it back on?

[briddj]

9 minutes ago, stopwn1981 said:

Is it still over? Or is it back on?

KNIFE EDGE

[Sasperella2]

4 hours ago, DYRTFT said:

Yep. We’re just going off of one wildly changeable and possibly wildly incorrect model at the moment. For those genuinely panicking, please don’t. My prediction is some changeable weather with some showers but plenty of sun. 

Sorry, i downvoted by accident and i dont know how to rectify! (too much wine rather than a site issue) 

[Sasperella2]

1 hour ago, Leyrulion said:

I'm gonna need to set off on the Sunday, I currently think I'm gonna have to pack for everything but no wellies. 

What's the best one to look at when making a final decision?

No wellies??? We are clearly not looking at the same efest thread... I'm in a puddle of woe (my own fault for lookint+g) 

[Crazyfool01]

3 minutes ago, Sasperella2 said:

Sorry, i downvoted by accident and i dont know how to rectify! (too much wine rather than a site issue) 

Just click and you’ll reverse it 

[Crazyfool01]

Despite the forecast rain Lionel was dry . f**k the forecasts 

[Crazyfool01]

At this stage 

[briddj]

The 18Z is bringing good news and a royal fingering.

Full update incoming!

 

[briddj]

Let's see what the 18Z has in store!

Finger at the ready!

Still forecasting some heavy rain on the Tuesday -- but this is much reduced from the 12Z and clears by the evening. Latest on the right.

On Wednesday, high pressure is coming into play earlier than in the 12Z.

Only a very small amount of rain showing on the festival site in the morning. Temperature 19 degrees.

Onto Thursday, some light rain around in the afternoon, dry early evening and through. High still in a better position. Temperature 19 degrees.

Now we come to Friday, and in comes the finger! Temps up to a max of 22, and completely dry.

We move to Saturday, completely dry and highs of 24.

And finally Sunday, the finger really gets us now. Very small amount of insignificant rain in the afternoon, highs of 25.

 

SUMMARY

A huge upgrade on the last run. Though there is some troublesome rain on the Tuesday, it has been massively downgraded and the site would soon be drying out.

 

[scaryclaireyfairy]

f**k it, STICK! 

[CaledonianGonzo]

Nobody expects the Azores Finger 

[Sheffield Steve]

Far too hot to sleep here in Sheffield, so I’m up doing this… not much change in the GFS this morning.   Brings plenty of rain through on Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday with some showers for Friday and Saturday, before finally giving us a dry Sunday and pack up day Monday.  
All to play for, we’ll see if the ECMWF agrees on Wednesdays rain when it’s out later….

[Avalon_Fields]

9 hours ago, Tomothy123 said:

Where abouts are you Avalon_fields? 
that arrow could be in my back garden! 
I’m Tottington, bury. And that rain a few hours ago was biblical! 

I’m just down the road in Ainsworth. I’ve lived in Tottington too. 

[squirrelarmy]

Had storms and rain forecast up here for last night. Ended up bone dry. Even predictions hours before can be wrong. 
 

Looking at the overall trends it’s likely to be warm with a potential shower which will just be absorbed into the parched ground. 
 

Nothing to complain about. For it to be a muddy one, the next week would have be non stop rain and there’s no sign of that on the charts. 
 

 

[Phoenix Girl]

Briddj I’m having that. 
 

Sheffield Steve can politely and respectfully do one 

[Ayrshire Chris]

Good morning fellow rollercoaster riders. 

[Tranquility of Solitude]

6 hours ago, briddj said:

in comes the finger!

 

[stopwn1981]

We seem to have swung from saved to it being over in the space of a nights broken, sweaty sleep

[Sasperella2]

35 minutes ago, Sheffield Steve said:

Far too hot to sleep here in Sheffield, so I’m up doing this… not much change in the GFS this morning.   Brings plenty of rain through on Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday with some showers for Friday and Saturday, before finally giving us a dry Sunday and pack up day Monday.  
All to play for, we’ll see if the ECMWF agrees on Wednesdays rain when it’s out later….

Again why is this different to Briddj? I prefered when the dips in the rollercoaster were a few hours apart.... This is too much

[Sasperella2]

25 minutes ago, Phoenix Girl said:

Briddj I’m having that. 
 

Sheffield Steve can politely and respectfully do one 

I know.... I'm considering temporarily ignoring him until gates open 😛

[briddj]

So, the 18Z was an improvement. What will the 00Z serve up for us?

There is still heavy rain before gates open, but this has now pulled back to overnight into Tuesday, rather than into Wednesday. The rain pushes north. Tuesday itself is mainly dry.

There is some rain around when the gates open on Wednesday, which could be heavy in the morning, and then light during the day before clearing in the evening.  15 degrees at gates open, and getting no higher than 16.

The high pressure is struggling to build in again in this run, which shows a downgrade on the 18Z.

Thursday is again showing some rain around, highs of 19.

Friday again shows high pressure struggling to make an impact, some very light showers around. Highs of 20.

On Saturday, high pressure tries to force its way in, but there's a low looming large in the Atlantic. Some light showers, back down to highs of 17.

And finally on Sunday, after some overnight showers, we finally have a dry day! Highs of 21.

SUMMARY

Unfortunately we have failed to build on the 18Z, and there remains a huge KNIFE EDGE over whether that breakdown will happen involving the low in the Atlantic. Rain around for the first 4 days - though nothing heavy really, and temperatures not great.

But it's TOO EARLY.

[briddj]

6 minutes ago, Sasperella2 said:

Again why is this different to Briddj? I prefered when the dips in the rollercoaster were a few hours apart.... This is too much

Steve's was the run after the one I posted.

I've just done the 6am update which Steve's referred to.