The Weather Thread 2023

[TGCarr]

Manchester was stunning weekend and then the heavens opened for 45mins. Then beautiful.

 

I don’t trust anything anymore 

[Jacko45]

2 minutes ago, fred quimby said:

It is one of those forum in joke things.

Just think of him as one of those lovable uncles you see once a year that tells the same old stories ever time, but he's fun. Eventually he always soils himself and you all laugh about it on the way home

 

Haha I get the bit, I think my nervous / excited energy isn't making me appreciate it!

Just don't f**king rain loads

 

[Alvoram]

3 minutes ago, The Nal said:

f**k!

Setting up tents in the rain and mud.

Roll on your footprint / ground sheet protector before putting the tent up to make the ground nice and smooth... That way you have a nice smooth surface to sleep / sit on for the rest of the festival. 

Every cloud has a silver lining. 🙂 

[Jacko45]

10 minutes ago, BambooShanks said:

The tuesday Queue Crew look to avoid rain over night, but looks like we're in store for a little soak for when gates open

 

I'm not smart enough for this - how much rain can we expect Tuesday if you go by that?

I'm a Tuesday arriver. 

[jfaragher]

40 minutes ago, Bike_Like_A_Mum said:

I dunno...apparently its officially been declared that we're in the El Nino pattern over the weekend and the last El Nino was 2016...

Climate teleconnections =/= weather.  Sure they impact on the overall trends of the weather, but the atmosphere / pacific ocean has been in El Niño state for a few months now, just they only declare it when it persists for a few months, and there hasn't been (and unlikely to be) impacts on European weather for a while - in fact, there are no proven connection between rainfall in the UK and El Niño at all...

[BambooShanks]

Just now, Jacko45 said:

 

I'm not smart enough for this - how much rain can we expect Tuesday if you go by that?

I'm a Tuesday arriver. 

tuesday until 6am wednesday appears dry but after that it could be anywhere from 5mm to 10mm of rain depending on how quickly it blows over.

While that may seem a lot, it isn't enough to do any serious damage.  Soggy underfoot and the main walkways may get a bit churned but nothing that won't dry quickly if it remains dry

[The Nal]

10mm of rain turns it into a mudbath.

And if there is more rain after that (which looks likely now) it'll be muddy all weekend. 

[Duggyfresh44]

There’s talk of a plume appearing on the Netweather forums. I honestly reckon this could be an almost carbon copy of 2019….

[churlie100]

1 minute ago, The Nal said:

10mm of rain turns it into a mudbath.

And if there is more rain after that (which looks likely now) it'll be muddy all weekend. 

Come on mate at least leave it to once per page or something, genuinely making the thread unusable after a point.

[BambooShanks]

2 minutes ago, The Nal said:

10mm of rain turns it into a mudbath.

And if there is more rain after that (which looks likely now) it'll be muddy all weekend. 

It doesn't.

As long as temps get above 21c (which it is looking it will), the mud will dry out quickly.

[briddj]

What does the 06Z have in store? Will it give us a more settled outlook?

Let's find out!

Through to gates open, it's excellent news - and all the troublesome rain that had been forecast for Monday and Tuesday has GONE.

As you can see from the pressure chart, with the latest on the right, there is a much less pronounced influence from the low.

WEDNESDAY: GATES OPEN

There is some rain around in the first half of the day, though the heavier stuff it out to the west of the area. While there is some rain on Wednesday afternoon, it's nothing serious. Any rain clears in the evening. Max temps of 20.

We can see that we remain in a stronger position for high pressure (latest on the right).

THURSDAY

A very, very small amount of rain showing for the Thursday. Barely worth mentioning. Highs of 23. Really starting to warm up.

 

FRIDAY

There is some rain around, but not too much. But what about the position of the low? Highs of 18 as the battle for pressure hots up.

Latest on the right as usual. There is no big area of low pressure that is looking to push in - but how will this play out over the weekend? This is going to be critical.

SATURDAY

Not good news at this point, with the low taking control over the weekend and making it a wet Saturday. Highs of 18.

SUNDAY

There's no real fightback from the high pressure. Temps of up to 20. Largely dry but with some rain for Elton.

SUMMARY

So we avoid the bad weather before the festival starts, but instead there's a breakdown from Friday into Saturday.

The change in the charts proves it's still TOO EARLY and all to play for. KNIFE EDGE.

 

[Sasperella2]

Is this better? I genuinely don't even know anymore 😅

[Sasperella2]

I just spent £70 on a fancy poncho. So y'all know it won't be raining now... You're welcome 

 

[briddj]

2 minutes ago, Sasperella2 said:

Is this better? I genuinely don't even know anymore 😅

Definitely better in the more reliable timeframe. That's how I look at it!

[Zen Dog]

[BBC7BBCHEAVEN]

3 minutes ago, Sasperella2 said:

I just spent £70 on a fancy poncho. So y'all know it won't be raining now... You're welcome 

 

Have you got a link? Genuinely curious what a poncho could offer to warrant £70

 

Weather looks ideal for me in terms of temp, if we could just avoid the rain now it'll be perfect

[sunnyshoes]

6 minutes ago, Sasperella2 said:

I just spent £70 on a fancy poncho. So y'all know it won't be raining now... You're welcome 

 

Thank you. I'll toast a cold cider in the glorious dry weather to you. 

[stopwn1981]

10 minutes ago, Sasperella2 said:

Is this better? I genuinely don't even know anymore 😅

Broadly the same. It needs to turn the other way and improve fast 

[briddj]

3 minutes ago, stopwn1981 said:

Broadly the same. It needs to turn the other way and improve fast 

It's not broadly the same.

[stopwn1981]

2 minutes ago, briddj said:

It's not broadly the same.

For the days of the festival it’s low pressure and wet stuff. Accept run up is better. Let’s hope it’s like last year and it just keeps getting pushed back

[briddj]

2 minutes ago, stopwn1981 said:

For the days of the festival it’s low pressure and wet stuff. Accept run up is better. Let’s hope it’s like last year and it just keeps getting pushed back

We've gone from absolutely torrential rain on the Monday and Tuesday to those days being dry. It changes the whole nature of what might follow.

[Neil]

30 minutes ago, The Nal said:

10mm of rain turns it into a mudbath.

And if there is more rain after that (which looks likely now) it'll be muddy all weekend. 

It needs the ground to be water-logged before the festival for a mud bath. There might be some muddy spots this year but no mud bath.

[Justcalledtosay]

56 minutes ago, briddj said:

06Z looks really promising, big improvement in the days before the festival. Full report coming in roughly 30 minutes. 

You can’t say this then give us a shitter of a forecast 😠

[Duggyfresh44]

Just now, Justcalledtosay said:

You can’t say this then give us a shitter of a forecast 😠

It’s not. The days in a more reliable time frame have improved. 

[Harry3]

I love this thread 😂