The Weather Thread 2023

[Jacko45]

MONDAY IS AN OUTLIER

 

 

*I know nothing btw. 

 

 

 

[Aragorn]

The ensembles should be interesting for the 06z. Willing to bet the operational is right out on its own in terms of precip

[Neverneverland]

3 hours ago, MEGATRONICMEATWAGON said:

Exactly. 

If dust in the eye gave me the same high as snorting ketamine, then great.

But a light drizzle to keep the dust at bay from swirling around will do nicely. 

Not a shellacking or downpour; just enough to keep the dust down.

Lovely stuff. 

What’s the difference between a shellacking and a downpour? And how does it compare to a deluge?

[HyperTechnoHorse]

33 minutes ago, BambooShanks said:

I wouldn't go that far.  Monday before gates open is awful and tuesday has a few showers about but after that it's looking alright

Half a month's rain in a single day is catastrophic - they wouldn't be able to finish putting the site together Monday/Tuesday. Would inevitably have a knock on effect for the rest of the festival. 

[Gnomicide]

26 minutes ago, churlie100 said:

Spoke to a work colleague also going to Glasto last night and the weather came up. My eyes went totally black when they said they just wanted it to rain for a bit now so it'll be sunny next week. I wanted to grab and shake them. That fool knew NOTHING of the GFS! They didn't know the meaning of the 06Z! I wanted to ask if they'd studied the latest meteograms or consulted with the elders on the Netweather forums but I had to leave as I knew the latest ECMWF was coming out in a few hours and I had to prepare to totally flip my sh*t if I saw the colour blue.

😁

These people, sheesh!

[Sasperella2]

27 minutes ago, 2019 said:

My bags getting lighter with these new forecasts. No wellys, no anorak. Just need to ditch the woolly jumper.

For the love of god man, its the UK. Take a mac! 

[stopwn1981]

6 minutes ago, HyperTechnoHorse said:

Half a month's rain in a single day is catastrophic - they wouldn't be able to finish putting the site together Monday/Tuesday. Would inevitably have a knock on effect for the rest of the festival. 

Flash flood and some top mud that would dry out by weds. 

[tazbang]

55 minutes ago, Gnomicide said:

2011 was the year of 4 seasons in one festival. 

The Glastonbury mud scale:

Type 1 - Flood (2005)
Type 2 - Sloshy (Thursday)
Type 3 - Sticky (Friday)
Type 4 - Plasticine (Saturday)
Type 5 - Dry (Wednesday/Sunday)
Type 6 - Dust (2010/2019)

[Thunderstruck]

6 minutes ago, Aragorn said:

The ensembles should be interesting for the 06z. Willing to bet the operational is right out on its own in terms of precip

It’s an outlier. Definitely some thunderstorm spikes in the precip - there’s actually an even bigger outlier the next day!

[fightoffyour]

No way that much rain is getting through the Pilton forcefield

[Thunderstruck]

Just now, stopwn1981 said:

Flash flood and some top mud that would dry out by weds. 

Yeh, it would clear up fine.

[nikkic]

1 hour ago, andymk said:

The wettest I've ever been at Glastonbury is watching U2 on the Friday in 2011, the rain was absolutely torrential.

Saturday into Sunday was great though, the Sun came out during Elbow and then for Coldplay it was glorious. By Sunday I was walking round in trainers for the first time that weekend.

Was there too, and somehow the torrential rain wasn't the worst thing about the situation. 

[mikegday]

All will be fine. The site handles rain better than anywhere else. Step off this rollercoaster and go pack.
 

too positive? 

[MEGATRONICMEATWAGON]

1 hour ago, andymk said:

The wettest I've ever been at Glastonbury is watching U2 on the Friday in 2011, the rain was absolutely torrential.

Saturday into Sunday was great though, the Sun came out during Elbow and then for Coldplay it was glorious. By Sunday I was walking round in trainers for the first time that weekend.

It's strange, I don't remember any, or hardly any, rain during Cee Lo Green at WH. I remember having a great time and his costume malfunctioning, but nowt about any rain. But then, I don't remember any rain during Wu-Tang or BB King, or Metronomy in the early afternoon either.

[DeanoL]

27 minutes ago, HyperTechnoHorse said:

Half a month's rain in a single day is catastrophic - they wouldn't be able to finish putting the site together Monday/Tuesday. Would inevitably have a knock on effect for the rest of the festival. 

While I suspect you may be right in practice, in theory at least the build schedule should allow for some days to be rained off, and they should be able to plan for something like this.

It's nowhere near as bad as 2016 when it barely stopped raining in the two weeks leading up to the festival. It was a close call, but they still managed it. Losing two days of prep to heavy rain is a walk in the park in comparison.

[mandana]

17 minutes ago, MEGATRONICMEATWAGON said:

It's strange, I don't remember any, or hardly any, rain during Cee Lo Green at WH. I remember having a great time and his costume malfunctioning, but nowt about any rain. But then, I don't remember any rain during Wu-Tang or BB King, or Metronomy in the early afternoon either.

see I seem to remember rain at both Wu and BB 😅

[chazwwe]

58 minutes ago, briddj said:

Onto the 06Z. Are we going to continue with the positive theme?

GATES OPEN

Well, fair to say this run brings the most apocalyptic rain for Monday, and would absolutely do serious damage to site. 20-25 mm in the morning, followed by another 10mm, would definitely not be a good thing!

Lighter rain through the rest on Monday, and then dry through Tuesday. Highs of 20 degrees, which is excellent for drying for site recovery.

When the gates open on Wednesday it's dry and 17 degrees. 

The position of the low at this stage of the run is more threatening, looks at big old Grotbags on the left.

But the high pressure still looks to be on the winning side as the chart is developing.

Wednesday stays completely dry with highs of 20. Again, great drying conditions.

THURSDAY

High pressure doesn't build in today, but it holds its position against the doom of the low.

A dry day with highs of 21.

FRIDAY

The high is still in a strong position, without any finger presence. But it's building.

Completely dry with highs of 22.

 

SATURDAY

Here comes the finger! Completely dry with highs of 23.

SUNDAY

Completely dry, max temps of 21.

SUMMARY

The level of rain on Monday has the potential to cause real issues ... but the festival itself is pretty much spot on and the temperatures would mean the site would dry up very quickly.

Ideally we definitely need less rain a couple of days before the gates open, but this is another excellent run for the festival.

But the trend for a fingering is continuing now through several runs.

 

 

 

Stick.

[DYRTFT]

OUTLIER.

KNIFEDGE.

TOO EARLY.

[FuzzyDunlop]

The weather in manchester is currently horrendous. 

Thank god I work inside with air con. 2 mins outside on my dinner is more than enough for me

[andymk]

39 minutes ago, Aragorn said:

The ensembles should be interesting for the 06z. Willing to bet the operational is right out on its own in terms of precip

Currently up to Sunday midday and the operational is way out compared to the rest

[Justcalledtosay]

Don't you dare Steve. I'm warning you...

[balti-pie]

Just got back from a ridiculously hot and dusty Download, two days at 28 degrees was just such hard work. There’s so much more shade available at Glastonbury though, it would’ve been so much easier to tolerate there. I do really yearn for some cloudy non-challenging weather at glasto though, just for a change #sorrynotsorry 

[sprocketrocket]

1 minute ago, balti-pie said:

Just got back from a ridiculously hot and dusty Download, two days at 28 degrees was just such hard work. There’s so much more shade available at Glastonbury though, it would’ve been so much easier to tolerate there. I do really yearn for some cloudy non-challenging weather at glasto though, just for a change #sorrynotsorry 

Clouds = rain. 

No f**king clouds

No f**king rain

No f**king compromise

[FuzzyDunlop]

1 minute ago, balti-pie said:

Just got back from a ridiculously hot and dusty Download, two days at 28 degrees was just such hard work. There’s so much more shade available at Glastonbury though, it would’ve been so much easier to tolerate there. I do really yearn for some cloudy non-challenging weather at glasto though, just for a change #sorrynotsorry 

Where?

[MEGATRONICMEATWAGON]

12 minutes ago, mandana said:

see I seem to remember rain at both Wu and BB 😅

Hmmm. I was obviously in the zone so much that a bit of drizzle didn't stick in the ol' noggin 😆