The Weather Thread 2023

[Field Commander Jefferson]

 

[HyperTechnoHorse]

7 minutes ago, Trunks1993 said:

Yeah that run is a shocker. Must be an outlier. Someone share the ensembles quick! @briddj please don't bother with this one, too much fuel for the 'it's over' crew

"Everything I don't like is an outlier" is the level of analysis I've come to expect from this thread. 

[Wooderson]

2011 vibes.

[Ayrshire Chris]

13 minutes ago, briddj said:

Right then, we want trends, trends, trends to develop now. What is the 06Z going to tell us?

GATES OPENING

Still a very wet Sunday, and Monday night into Tuesday, in store in this run. In fact the 06Z appears to put more rain on the site, especially on the Sunday.

The latest chart is on the right, previous on the left. This is Sunday.

Tuesday is an improvement on the last run, with less rain, but still some rain nonetheless.

By Wednesday at 9am, there's some very light rain around.

And unfortunately things do not improve from here.

Wednesday is showing as having showers - this is not heavy rain - but certainly a downgrade on the last run. Highs of just 18.

This is being caused by a small green area of low pressure to the north of England. You can see the difference in the runs here, latest on the right. But how will it develop?

THURSDAY

The high pressure begins to build in now, making Thursday a largely dry day with small showers around 6pm. However, highs are of just 18.

FRIDAY

The high pressure finally tries to build in today, but it doesn't prevent it being another day of light showers. High temps of 19.

SATURDAY

Unfortunately the high is pushed back by an area of lower pressure, meaning we don't get the weekend boost we've had in recent runs. Yet more rain through the day, though clearing in the evening. Highs of just 17 now.

SUNDAY

Dry, but max temps of 13. This doesn't make sense with the pressure around the UK so seems to be unreliable.

SUMMARY

Well, we're well and truly back on the rollercoaster.

The area of low pressure on the Wednesday makes the start of the festival damp, and the high never pulls in - so there's rain through the main festival too.

Temps not getting to 20 will make it a chilly festival, especially on the evenings.

However, this doesn't really seem to be a reliable run with what is shown for Sunday.

Definitely a downgrade, but it's still TOO EARLY. Huge amount of uncertainty.

See you in 6 hours.

 

 

 

[frostypaw]

18 minutes ago, Trunks1993 said:

Yeah that run is a shocker. Must be an outlier. Someone share the ensembles quick! @briddj please don't bother with this one, too much fuel for the 'it's over' crew

Won't have those until 1.30-something. 

Patience grasshoppers. There's precisely Zero point in trying to rush to the weather reports now, it's still a week away and particularly the main run will vary wildly every 6 hours. Save yourselves the stress and at least wait until we have ensembles.

So far the models all suggest the same - some drop in pressure tues/weds/thurs then rising. That's all we know for sure at this range.

 

[andymk]

25 minutes ago, briddj said:

Right then, we want trends, trends, trends to develop now. What is the 06Z going to tell us?

GATES OPENING

Still a very wet Sunday, and Monday night into Tuesday, in store in this run. In fact the 06Z appears to put more rain on the site, especially on the Sunday.

The latest chart is on the right, previous on the left. This is Sunday.

Tuesday is an improvement on the last run, with less rain, but still some rain nonetheless.

By Wednesday at 9am, there's some very light rain around.

And unfortunately things do not improve from here.

Wednesday is showing as having showers - this is not heavy rain - but certainly a downgrade on the last run. Highs of just 18.

This is being caused by a small green area of low pressure to the north of England. You can see the difference in the runs here, latest on the right. But how will it develop?

THURSDAY

The high pressure begins to build in now, making Thursday a largely dry day with small showers around 6pm. However, highs are of just 18.

FRIDAY

The high pressure finally tries to build in today, but it doesn't prevent it being another day of light showers. High temps of 19.

SATURDAY

Unfortunately the high is pushed back by an area of lower pressure, meaning we don't get the weekend boost we've had in recent runs. Yet more rain through the day, though clearing in the evening. Highs of just 17 now.

SUNDAY

Dry, but max temps of 13. This doesn't make sense with the pressure around the UK so seems to be unreliable.

SUMMARY

Well, we're well and truly back on the rollercoaster.

The area of low pressure on the Wednesday makes the start of the festival damp, and the high never pulls in - so there's rain through the main festival too.

Temps not getting to 20 will make it a chilly festival, especially on the evenings.

However, this doesn't really seem to be a reliable run with what is shown for Sunday.

Definitely a downgrade, but it's still TOO EARLY. Huge amount of uncertainty.

See you in 6 hours.

 

 

 

06z Operational run is once again an outlier in regards low pressure

rain wise there is still a chance of thunderstorms coming through with the very big spikes, though the majority of runs are showing much lower

Temperature wise it's also on the very low end

 

 

 

 

Edited June 14, 2023 by andymk

[briddj]

21 minutes ago, StePotts said:

When was the last time it was 13 degrees in the UK in June? 

Last year two weeks before the festival!

[Littlechef87]

23 minutes ago, StePotts said:

When was the last time it was 13 degrees in the UK in June? 

Last week in East Anglia...

[Henrik]

24 minutes ago, StePotts said:

When was the last time it was 13 degrees in the UK in June? 

About 3am this morning on the Isle of Wight

[Sheffield Steve]

5 minutes ago, andymk said:

06z Operational run is once again an outlier in regards low pressure

rain wise there is still a chance of thunderstorms coming through with the very big spikes, though the majority of runs are showing much lower

Temperature wise it's also on the very low end

 

 

 

 

Good post. That at least shows the operational is out on its own.  It is a shocker, let’s hope it clears off soon.

[2019]

My current take.

GSF and ECMWF agree. Wed 21st/Thur 22nd/Fri 23rd look ok. Dry, day/20c night/15c. A little windy.

Sat 24th & Sun 25th 50/50 rain. This is a best guess, as I don't have any data, only charts.

ICON13 comes in to play for Wednesday 21st  from tomorrow, and should start to reinforce the probability.

Edited June 14, 2023 by 2019
Typo

[Bike_Like_A_Mum]

30 minutes ago, T-Mouse said:

I've gotta say this thread is super f**king entertaining to follow after you truly stop giving a f**k about any of the actual "data". 

You've got the hang of it 😜

[JoeyT]

I f**king love this thread.

Every year it never disappoints.

[The Nal]

Can't think of a worse forecast this close to the festival.

[Sheffield Steve]

Well we can assume the GFS 6z is outlier but what a shocker it is.   It still brings the thundery downpours up from the south on Sunday, and then again on Monday night, which would make the site very wet.  Then on Tuesday night, just before gates open it brings in the sort of depression you’d expect to see in winter.  There would be strong winds and plenty of heavy rain associated with that.

The GFS is known for over-deepening areas of low pressure though, so we need to hope it’s done the same here.  It would leave us with a windy (hang on to your tent) and very showery set up day.

Another batch of heavy rain close by for Thursday night.  More showers on Friday and then more persistent rain on Saturday from yet another area of low pressure developing in the North Sea, which it then has the audacity to bring in from the east over the U.K. to bring more rain on Sunday.

It’s been consistent with the thundery rain early next week but is undoubtedly overplaying the rain later on, so let’s pretend this one hasn’t happened and move on to the next…

 

[fightoffyour]

06z is a meteorological Maguire

[The Nal]

[stopwn1981]

6 minutes ago, Sheffield Steve said:

Well we can assume the GFS 6z is outlier but what a shocker it is.   It still brings the thundery downpours up from the south on Sunday, and then again on Monday night, which would make the site very wet.  Then on Tuesday night, just before gates open it brings in the sort of depression you’d expect to see in winter.  There would be strong winds and plenty of heavy rain associated with that.

The GFS is known for over-deepening areas of low pressure though, so we need to hope it’s done the same here.  It would leave us with a windy (hang on to your tent) and very showery set up day.

Another batch of heavy rain close by for Thursday night.  More showers on Friday and then more persistent rain on Saturday from yet another area of low pressure developing in the North Sea, which it then has the audacity to bring in from the east over the U.K. to bring more rain on Sunday.

It’s been consistent with the thundery rain early next week but is undoubtedly overplaying the rain later on, so let’s pretend this one hasn’t happened and move on to the next…

 

 

[sime]

6 minutes ago, Sheffield Steve said:

Well we can assume the GFS 6z is outlier but what a shocker it is.   It still brings the thundery downpours up from the south on Sunday, and then again on Monday night, which would make the site very wet.  Then on Tuesday night, just before gates open it brings in the sort of depression you’d expect to see in winter.  There would be strong winds and plenty of heavy rain associated with that.

The GFS is known for over-deepening areas of low pressure though, so we need to hope it’s done the same here.  It would leave us with a windy (hang on to your tent) and very showery set up day.

Another batch of heavy rain close by for Thursday night.  More showers on Friday and then more persistent rain on Saturday from yet another area of low pressure developing in the North Sea, which it then has the audacity to bring in from the east over the U.K. to bring more rain on Sunday.

It’s been consistent with the thundery rain early next week but is undoubtedly overplaying the rain later on, so let’s pretend this one hasn’t happened and move on to the next…

 

This forecast is Nal's wet dream

[Twisted Melon]

11 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

I f**king love this thread.

Every year it never disappoints.

Agreed.

Every damn year I’m drawn to it! I just can’t help myself.

[Drinky]

That GFS 6z is 2007-adjacent

[mikegday]

Glad we avoid this Sundays downpour anyway! 

[Sheffield Steve]

The ECMWF now stretches as far as midnight festival Saturday.   It is fortunately much drier than the GFS, but still brings us some rain.  It has the thundery rain come up on Sunday night like the GFS but sends Tuesdays heavy rain to the east of the U.K. unlike the GFS.

It has showers around Wednesday, Thursday and Friday but nothing calamitous.   Let’s hope the ECMWF is more accurate than the GFS (quite likely).

(ignore the glitch in the middle of the gif, caused by a hole in the space time continuum)
 

Edited June 14, 2023 by Sheffield Steve

[duke88]

1 hour ago, StePotts said:

When was the last time it was 13 degrees in the UK in June? 

Was colder than that here at the start of last week.

[Drinky]

34 minutes ago, Sheffield Steve said:

Then on Tuesday night, just before gates open it brings in the sort of depression you’d expect to see in winter.  There would be strong winds and plenty of heavy rain associated with that.

 

 

The sort of depression you’d expect to see in winter? At this time of year? At this time of day? In this part of the country? Localized entirely within the Vale of Avalon?