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The Weather Thread 2023


tazbang

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The situation might look dire now but big improvements are on the way.  This is the moisture level of the top layer of soil as of today. The dark blue indicates 100% saturation where any further significant rainfall will result in flooding:
1EA7DA69-49BA-4C2F-B37F-431C66494822.thumb.jpeg.d092bf0d01e91806b5801fddc2397c7b.jpeg

However, the situation in 10 days time is much better with all the dark blues having disappeared:

A3498039-8AED-4584-8BC6-D1BC7DCAECE4.thumb.jpeg.6ca9dc9920802df35bda8481ee816e8f.jpeg

Beyond that, the models are predicting a warmer and drier than average spring and summer. This is the next 6 weeks temperature predictions when compared to average:

31CE02C2-5B12-4171-9C38-9728625D599B.thumb.gif.c23c3c39581f6938647b6c2ecc333c32.gif

 

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2 minutes ago, Neil said:

The wettest march for forty years.yetit doesn't feel that soggy.

Quite a lot of the fields near me are flooded, first time I’ve seen that in 5 years of living here. 

Certainly feels wetter where I am, thankfully I’m hundreds of miles from the festival!

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6 minutes ago, nikkic said:

Quite a lot of the fields near me are flooded, first time I’ve seen that in 5 years of living here. 

Certainly feels wetter where I am, thankfully I’m hundreds of miles from the festival!

not the driest but because we had such a dry year last year its all hopefully just topping up the reservoirs which is much needed ... I look at the post above and take the positives from that . will dry out fairly quickly this week and the sun is out now like forecast 

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7 hours ago, Neil said:

The wettest march for forty years.yetit doesn't feel that soggy.

Does round here. The lake has been pretty consistently high (although I've seen it higher before now, including the 2015 floods) and there are paths and fields which normally dry out between soakings which just don't seem to have this year.

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So the April run of the ECMWF seasonal forecast model has been released.  If anything, it has become warmer than the March run. The whole of Europe is predicted to have a much warmer than average May/June/July, with June now looking particularly warm in France and Spain.  If we get a southerly at the end of June, we could be in for a scorcher…

May:

3E6C2BBC-D848-476A-9652-058010A63F8F.thumb.jpeg.4b81453c5d8e7e2ccc77ccc4a7719025.jpeg

June:

19E86FA5-6B6D-47FF-A99B-B0DD4DA17FA3.thumb.jpeg.d955dd3795ceb8863bb1fcf12e3b0e88.jpeg

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Just now, Sheffield Steve said:

So the April run of the ECMWF seasonal forecast model has been released.  If anything, it has become warmer than the March run. The whole of Europe is predicted to have a much warmer than average May/June/July, with June now looking particularly warm in France and Spain.  If we get a southerly at the end of June, we could be in for a scorcher…

May:

3E6C2BBC-D848-476A-9652-058010A63F8F.thumb.jpeg.4b81453c5d8e7e2ccc77ccc4a7719025.jpeg

June:

19E86FA5-6B6D-47FF-A99B-B0DD4DA17FA3.thumb.jpeg.d955dd3795ceb8863bb1fcf12e3b0e88.jpeg

sat here in my hoodie watching the drizzle on the webcam and very firmly crossing fingers 

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2 hours ago, Sheffield Steve said:

So the April run of the ECMWF seasonal forecast model has been released.  If anything, it has become warmer than the March run. The whole of Europe is predicted to have a much warmer than average May/June/July, with June now looking particularly warm in France and Spain.  If we get a southerly at the end of June, we could be in for a scorcher…

May:

3E6C2BBC-D848-476A-9652-058010A63F8F.thumb.jpeg.4b81453c5d8e7e2ccc77ccc4a7719025.jpeg

June:

19E86FA5-6B6D-47FF-A99B-B0DD4DA17FA3.thumb.jpeg.d955dd3795ceb8863bb1fcf12e3b0e88.jpeg

Confirmed then, Glastonbury called off because of dangerous 40° heat. 🤣

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1 minute ago, Bike_Like_A_Mum said:

Bumping up the weather thread again! Come on...some more insights anyone?

Getting anxious now after a freezing wet bank holiday weekend camping. Let there be sun!!!

Loads of time for it to dry out. 
 

site has loads of drainage now so it does shift quite quickly 

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26 minutes ago, Bike_Like_A_Mum said:

Anyone got inside info on rain? ...put a few people off trying for tickets maybe?

Well the next few weeks don't look that great.

If the Monthly Outlook still looks like this in a month's time, I'll start to worry.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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