The Weather Thread 2023

[Alvoram]

Just now, March Hare said:

As someone with limited understanding of these maps…. is it no looking like a wet festival? 

It's too early to say... these maps are just computer models. Or in English, computer predictions. Every 6 hours the modelling computer (In this case it's the GFS Model) runs a load of simulations, then they make an overall prediction from those simulations. There's also other models that work the same, like ECMWF.

These are VERY early models, and will change back and forth each day until we get closer to the festival.

The 2 or 3 runs before this latest run yesterday were predicting a dry start to the festival, with high pressure building (high is GOOD.) This latest run is predicating a wet start to the festival, with low pressure building... But like I said, it's too early, it will change, several times, we're looking for patterns, and agreement between the different models. 

[Jacko45]

 

 

[Crazyfool01]

21 minutes ago, March Hare said:

As someone with limited understanding of these maps…. is it now looking like a wet festival? 

dont worry none of us are Michael fish ( that I know of ) ..... and the weather guys sometimes get it wrong "someone said there is a storm coming " was a famous quote if i recall .... still all to play for 🙂 

[Henrik]

Can we get @briddj back on the charts please? 

[Bike_Like_A_Mum]

Looks exactly the same as last year, backwards and forwards

[briddj]

6 minutes ago, Henrik said:

Can we get @briddj back on the charts please? 

Will start them up in earnest in a few days when we are getting the trends across the whole 5 days.

Then we can crack on with the fully obsessive updates!

Last time I said this I started them up quicker though.....

Edited June 6, 2023 by briddj

[Sasperella2]

43 minutes ago, March Hare said:

As someone with limited understanding of these maps…. is it now looking like a wet festival? 

Don't worry. Stick with this thread and come Glastonbury, you will be a pro! 

[Trunks1993]

Virtually every weather model was showing a wet festival (excpet the beeb) right up to setting off last year. Big pinch of salt needed this far out. Arguably only worth looking now to see build conditions i.e. avoid 2016.

[Nick Sneddon]

36 minutes ago, March Hare said:

As someone with limited understanding of these maps…. is it now looking like a wet festival? 

I wouldn’t think so – the trend for the last couple of weeks has been the same, some rain the week before then dry on the whole but chilly for the festival week. This could all change of course but that’s what the money is on right now

[Zig-A-Zig-Ah]

1 hour ago, Jacko45 said:

 

 

where can I sign up and agree to locking in this forecast please ?

[fightoffyour]

1 hour ago, Jacko45 said:

 

 

Far too cold. Big twist.

[mungo57]

1 hour ago, Jacko45 said:

 

 

I'll join Zig a zig ah with sticking for this, I don't want it TOO hot so would take this over 24+ any day of the week

[PolygonWindow]

1 hour ago, Alvoram said:

00z is a bit of a disaster... But we'll just call it an outlier...

------------------------

 

Wednesday

 

 

------------------------

Thursday (00:00)

 

 

Definitely an outlier.... TWIST

GEFS has got the most biblical rain ever. Must be based on that GFS. TWIST!

 

[CaledonianGonzo]

Yikes. 

[Alvoram]

20 minutes ago, PolygonWindow said:

GEFS has got the most biblical rain ever. Must be based on that GFS. TWIST!

 

Not too bad, less than 10mm on the few days up to the wednesday... still twist (just hope it doesn't get worse.) 

(P.s that is the GFS, but it's the ensembles)

[Alvoram]

1 hour ago, Henrik said:

Can we get @briddj back on the charts please? 

He won't start until a week or two out...

Basically because there's no point, and they don't mean a lot until we get closer... 

But thanks, nice to know that you appreciate me taking the time to share the pretty pictures with you... 🙈😂

[PolygonWindow]

4 minutes ago, Alvoram said:

Not too bad, less than 10mm on the few days up to the wednesday... still twist (just hope it doesn't get worse.) 

(P.s that is the GFS, but it's the ensembles)

Hopefully just a dud run across the board then!

[squirrelarmy]

Starting to get within range of daily breakdowns from MetCheck. 
 

Dust won’t be an issue and I suspect The Nal will be conjuring up something baity. 
 

Still too far out to worry though. A lot can change. 
 

[BambooShanks]

So that 00z run looked pretty terrible.  Expected really given how great the previous one was.

The 06z run will be done in an hour so will do a brief post once it's finished.  

[The Nal]

Only 14 days out folks. The weather peaked too early.

This is a disaster.

Really worrying.

 

[Henrik]

39 minutes ago, Alvoram said:

Basically because there's no point, and they don't mean a lot until we get closer... 

Oh I know how they work. I am no stranger to obsessive weather watching. 

[Sasperella2]

44 minutes ago, Alvoram said:

He won't start until a week or two out...

Basically because there's no point, and they don't mean a lot until we get closer... 

But thanks, nice to know that you appreciate me taking the time to share the pretty pictures with you... 🙈😂

I appreciate it!!! 🙂

[___DGH___]

1 minute ago, The Nal said:

Only 14 days out folks. The weather peaked too early.

This is a disaster.

Really worrying.

 

🤣 Yes!!! There it is 

[Alvoram]

11 minutes ago, The Nal said:

Only 14 days out folks. The weather peaked too early.

This is a disaster.

Really worrying.

 

Do you reckon they sell inflatable dinghies on site? 

[Crazyfool01]

Just now, Alvoram said:

Do you reckon they sell inflatable dinghies on site? 

theres already a ship on site if things get desperate