The Weather Thread 2023

[2019]

Festival still looks nice across 3h and 1h models.

Of concern to me at the moment is this Saturday (10th), which looks to be bringing in persistent rain between 11am and 4pm. I'll be watching the ram jam jar and the divers report with interest.

[briddj]

The 00Z is definitely an outlier.....

[Jackomanaco]

Last 2 GFS runs have looked a bit better after yesterday's sh*t show😬

[squirrelarmy]

MetCheck isn’t as bad as it seems. Little bit more than drizzle but far from catastrophic. 
 

[briddj]

1 minute ago, Jackomanaco said:

Last 2 GFS runs have looked a bit better after yesterday's sh*t show😬

Are you looking at the right 00Z?

The 18Z was better, but the 00Z is a definite downgrade again. 

[gazzared]

Still to early but can't stop myself from checking

[Jackomanaco]

20 minutes ago, briddj said:

Are you looking at the right 00Z?

The 18Z was better, but the 00Z is a definite downgrade again. 

Yep. The 1200 run yesterday was awful. The two runs since have been better. Midnight run does have a looming low to the west Thursday but it does look like the high ridge is strengthening a bit as the festival goes on.

1200 Run (Thursday)

0000 Run (Thursday)

[PolygonWindow]

3 minutes ago, Jackomanaco said:

Yep. The 1200 run yesterday was awful. The two runs since have been better. Midnight run does have a looming low to the west Thursday but it does look like the high ridge is strengthening a bit as the festival goes on.

1200 Run (Thursday)

0000 Run (Thursday)

That low under us/ coming south eastern from Europe is proper annoying me

[briddj]

12 minutes ago, Jackomanaco said:

Yep. The 1200 run yesterday was awful. The two runs since have been better. Midnight run does have a looming low to the west Thursday but it does look like the high ridge is strengthening a bit as the festival goes on.

1200 Run (Thursday)

0000 Run (Thursday)

I was talking rainfall on the 00Z tbh. 

[Cooter]

7 hours ago, fightoffyour said:

2010 was actually perfect wasn’t it? Wall To wall sunshine but no oppressive heat like Saturday 2019.

You weren't in the Avalon field when The Wurzels were playing then!

[Phoenix Girl]

I regret coming in here already 😆 

[briddj]

The 00Z (left) does have the small low having appeared below the UK, which is causing the Tuesday and Wednesday rain. Really nice and warm even on Weds and Thurs though.

 

But by Friday, the finger is coming on the 00Z (left)

 

Edited June 8, 2023 by briddj

[Sheffield Steve]

Outlier or not, it’s a possibility.  The GFS 0z is horrendous, bringing heavy thundery rain over the site from the Wednesday right through to Saturday morning.  It would be carnage.  Too early to panic, plenty of time for things to change….

 

[briddj]

No one should start panicking, btw. These charts are pretty meaningless at the moment, which is why I won't be starting by full updates just yet.

[mungo57]

awaiting entry of Nal with his doom and gloom about us all dying 😄

[CaledonianGonzo]

13 minutes ago, Sheffield Steve said:

 The GFS 0z is horrendous, bringing heavy thundery rain over the site from the Wednesday right through to Saturday morning.  It would be carnage.

Bit an emphatic victory for people who don't want to wear sunblock for some reason.

[Sheffield Steve]

12 minutes ago, briddj said:

No one should start panicking, btw. These charts are pretty meaningless at the moment, which is why I won't be starting by full updates just yet.

Me neither.  Just wait until you get my full updates… 🤓

[Jacko45]

@Sheffield Steve just gone and ruined my day. 

[FuzzyDunlop]

Meh. Not good, but not that bad.

It'll all change later

 

Edited June 8, 2023 by FuzzyDunlop

[DareToDibble]

I am firmly in the "I want sun" camp. However in all honesty as long as it's dry then I'm cool with any temperature. I'd rather have to spend the weekend in a jumper/hoody than a poncho/coat.

[The Nal]

1 hour ago, Sheffield Steve said:

Outlier or not, it’s a possibility.  The GFS 0z is horrendous, bringing heavy thundery rain over the site from the Wednesday right through to Saturday morning.  It would be carnage.  Too early to panic, plenty of time for things to change….

 

 

With only 12 days to go, its time to panic.

[st dan]

49 minutes ago, FuzzyDunlop said:

Meh. Not good, but not that bad.

It'll all change later

 

‘Heavy thundery showers from Wednesday night until Saturday morning’ 

Edited June 8, 2023 by st dan

[fightoffyour]

1 hour ago, Cooter said:

You weren't in the Avalon field when The Wurzels were playing then!

I don't remember it that well being 13 years and a metric f**k tonne of booze since then which is why I framed it as a question, but no I was not in The Avalon Field when The Wurzels played 😀

[Crazyfool01]

Has it changed yet ? 

[Jacko45]

2 minutes ago, Crazyfool01 said:

Has it changed yet ? 

 

We can only hope and pray as @Sheffield Steve forecast is Armageddon stuff.