The Weather Thread 2023

[PolygonWindow]

3 minutes ago, 2019 said:

Saturday 17th afternoon is looking a bit shaky on the rain front, but this is right at the edge of the current forecast for GFS27 and GFS+ so take with a tablespoon of fancy Himalayan pink salt. ECMWF forecast is fairer, with lower winds. 

This is how it currently shapes up.

Wed - dry/23c/NE. Evening looks especially nice with the wind tailing off.

Thur  - dry/22c/NE. Evening similar to Wed.

Fri - mostly dry/23c/ENE. slight drizzle between 8-10pm, but nothing to worry about.

Sat - mixed/23c/NE getting windy. Dry morning, rain between 1pm and midnight, could be annoyingly persistent.

Sun - not in range, but the trends are lower winds, falling barometer, so less sunshine/cooler.

Thanks for the above. How are you getting the ECMWF detailed forecast that far into the future?

 

edit: just noticed this is for the week prior!

Edited June 8, 2023 by PolygonWindow

[George_92]

2 minutes ago, 2019 said:

Saturday 17th afternoon is looking a bit shaky on the rain front, but this is right at the edge of the current forecast for GFS27 and GFS+ so take with a tablespoon of fancy Himalayan pink salt. ECMWF forecast is fairer, with lower winds. 

This is how it currently shapes up.

Wed - dry/23c/NE. Evening looks especially nice with the wind tailing off.

Thur  - dry/22c/NE. Evening similar to Wed.

Fri - mostly dry/23c/ENE. slight drizzle between 8-10pm, but nothing to worry about.

Sat - mixed/23c/NE getting windy. Dry morning, rain between 1pm and midnight, could be annoyingly persistent.

Sun - not in range, but the trends are lower winds, falling barometer, so less sunshine/cooler.

not too bad! minus Saturday 

[CR77]

2 hours ago, DareToDibble said:

Realistically, when can we start to be confident that the forecasts are right? This time next week?

...never, basically!  On the Wednesday morning, last year, the predicted weather for the five days (with actual weather in brackets) was:

Wednesday - Sunny intervals (was in fact very sunny all day!)
Thursday - Thunderstorms (no thunderstorms, no rain etc)
Friday - Light rain (Very light rain for 20 minutes around teatime, but ground dried immediately)
Saturday - Moderate rain (Very light rain around 8am, but ground dried immediately)
Sunday - Moderate rain (No rain at all)

Whole festival weather-wise was absolutely fine - the short sprinkles of light rain were not a problem (no hood needed!), festival was generally sunny, temperature averaged around 20 degrees, although a little cold on the Thursday night - 9 degrees I think.

The weather thread is fun, and I'm addicted to it, but given thunderstorms were predicted for the Thursday, as late as the Wednesday, it's really nothing to go by.  I went with my gut feeling last year and despite the predictions didn't take wellies!

[Jacko45]

1 minute ago, George_92 said:

not too bad! minus Saturday 

 

It's not great is it let's be honest haha. 

[PolygonWindow]

I know it's TOO EARLY etc. but today I am starting to get the sense we are not trending in the right direction unfortunately. Looks as if next week is going to be nice and the week after not great. Want to be proved wrong tho obv.

[2019]

7 minutes ago, PolygonWindow said:

Thanks for the above. How are you getting the ECMWF detailed forecast that far into the future?

 

edit: just noticed this is for the week prior!

I probably confused a few others with this noise! I was trying to see what the impact to the ground may be in the week leading up.

[cb4747]

7 minutes ago, PolygonWindow said:

I know it's TOO EARLY etc. but today I am starting to get the sense we are not trending in the right direction unfortunately. Looks as if next week is going to be nice and the week after not great. Want to be proved wrong tho obv.

All will be fine!👌

[2019]

9 minutes ago, PolygonWindow said:

I know it's TOO EARLY etc. but today I am starting to get the sense we are not trending in the right direction unfortunately. Looks as if next week is going to be nice and the week after not great. Want to be proved wrong tho obv.

I think you're right, it's really too early for anything other than wild arse guesses (wags).

My take is that it will be neither a scorcher, or a mud bath. A classic headging-all-bets forecast.

I hope we will have a Goldilocks festival, not too hot, not too cold, just right.

[briddj]

21 minutes ago, PolygonWindow said:

I know it's TOO EARLY etc. but today I am starting to get the sense we are not trending in the right direction unfortunately. Looks as if next week is going to be nice and the week after not great. Want to be proved wrong tho obv.

It means absolutely nothing right now.

There are no trends this far out. 

It will swing wildly.

[Trunks1993]

11 minutes ago, briddj said:

It means absolutely nothing right now.

There are no trends this far out. 

It will swing wildly.

Agreed. One week at a time. Next week looks good therefore better ground/build conditions. Predicting festival weather now is 'finger in the sky' equivalent.

[T-Mouse]

23 minutes ago, 2019 said:

My take is that it will be neither a scorcher, or a mud bath. A classic headging-all-bets forecast.

It could still be either of those things. We are predicting weather 2 weeks away.

[Mark E. Spliff]

Forecasting for a chaotic system like the weather is always going to be probabilistic.  Once you understand that, you can make appropriate use of the expertise provided in this thread, i.e. get an idea of the most likely scenarios, although if you want to play it safe as far as risking a miserable festival, you'll still pack for all eventualities.

But expecting people in this thread to understand the probabilistic nature of weather forecasting might be asking a bit much judging by some of the repeated handbag-swinging that goes on.  I'm wondering if the Father Ted 'reality/dreams' diagram could be employed to help people struggling with the concept that someone's personal weather preference has zero impact upon what the actual weather will be.  I, for example, am looking forward to a nuclear winter followed by meteorite-strikes and locust swarms from mid-June, but these thoughts reside only in my head and don't have any influence over what the weather will do in reality.

[Sheffield Steve]

Here we go. It’s the pre-festival apocalypse.  Thunderstorm watch issued for today for the SW.  Might just reach Pilton….

[The Nal]

Beeb now saying the nasty stuff (low pressure) is hitting from the Saturday before the festival and continues throughout.

Its all gone to sh*t.

[turricandanz]

5 minutes ago, The Nal said:

Beeb now saying the nasty stuff (low pressure) is hitting from the Saturday before the festival and continues throughout.

Its all gone to sh*t.

staying fairly mild though 😛

What a rollercoaster this thread is.... someone should make it into a movie or a 3 part Netflix series.

Edited June 8, 2023 by turricandanz

[Duggyfresh44]

It’ll be reet.

[2019]

40 minutes ago, Sheffield Steve said:

Here we go. It’s the pre-festival apocalypse.  Thunderstorm watch issued for today for the SW.  Might just reach Pilton….

Any forecast greater than 1 day ahead is witchcraft.

[Avalon_Fields]

4 minutes ago, 2019 said:

Any forecast greater than 1 day ahead is witchcraft.

And anyone spreading evil forecasts will be treated as such...

Edited June 8, 2023 by Avalon_Fields

[CaledonianGonzo]

10 minutes ago, 2019 said:

Any forecast greater than 1 day ahead is witchcraft.

It's for today?

[2019]

5 minutes ago, CaledonianGonzo said:

It's for today?

My bad. I'll get the stocks and ducking stool.

[Ayrshire Chris]

38 minutes ago, 2019 said:

ducking stool.

Be careful how you say that😉

[stuartbert two hats]

4 hours ago, KidneyTerra said:

Where’s the fun in that? 

Oh none. It's fine to do this for sport, but I think I used to be under some illusions that there was something to it all earlier on.  It's just noise 2 weeks out.

[stuartbert two hats]

4 hours ago, CaledonianGonzo said:

This seems to be the consensus view, but I had a read back at the 2016 and in the run up it seems there were periods when the site seemed to be a bone-dry dustbowl.

There was loads and loads of rain falling closer to the festival, during the timeframe where we have forecasts that are actually reliable, so it's looking pretty likely we'll avoid a 2016 style quagmire.

 

*Godfather III gif here*

[briddj]

5 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Oh none. It's fine to do this for sport, but I think I used to be under some illusions that there was something to it all earlier on.  It's just noise 2 weeks out.

The GFS did predict the 40 degrees two weeks out last summer though!

[sunnyshoes]

Slightly off topic but does anyone else like the lightning map website? Love it.