The Weather Thread 2024

[Sheffield Steve]

10 minutes ago, Euphoricape said:

Both days still dry?

Just the chance of a shower on both days…

[ibilly99]

2 minutes ago, Sheffield Steve said:

Just the chance of a shower on both days…

A cooling dust killer in new money.

[ibilly99]

Feck it's turning the other way.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/jun/22/heat-health-alert-england

[Sheffield Steve]

ECM again comes up with a completely different solution than the GFS. 

 

Like the UKMO it has the suggestion of some showers on the Wednesday and Thursday…

 

But Friday could be very interesting as the cool Atlantic air meets the warm continental air and a classic line of storms breaks out. Impossible to say exactly where this will be at this stage but if it happens over the site we could be in for a deluge…

 

 

It then diverges completely from the GFS which introduces a ridge of high pressure.  ECM brings a significant low pressure just to the west of us which would give cool

weather with showers or longer spells of rain.  Next weekend is still very much up in the air. 
 

[Ayrshire Chris]

Met office still holding firm

[rlandy95]

Stick stick stick!!! (Wednesday through to Monday)

 

 

[CanWeRest]

None of the forecasts I've seen look worrying.

[ibilly99]

2 minutes ago, CanWeRest said:

None of the forecasts I've seen look worrying.

We should be worried about that.

 

 

[Glasto Weatherwatch]

So basically - Weds / Thurs looking safe now bar showers. Next worry is how far in the low comes at the weekend; as Steve says, ECM has it pushing in and causing a front of storms. Much better than 24 hours ago but plenty of rollercoaster left. 

[briddj]

18Z 🕺

[rlandy95]

6 minutes ago, Glasto Weatherwatch said:

So basically - Weds / Thurs looking safe now bar showers. Next worry is how far in the low comes at the weekend; as Steve says, ECM has it pushing in and causing a front of storms. Much better than 24 hours ago but plenty of rollercoaster left. 

 

Think its worth providing some context for the ECMWF 12Z. This guy on Netweather explains it far better than myself https://community.netweather.tv/topic/100278-model-output-discussion-summer-2024/?do=findComment&comment=5087995

 

But essentially the 12Z Op run was part of cluster 4 for that time period with only 16% of members agreeing on that outcome. So a relatively low potential. We're idealy aiming for cluster 3 which will have a brief unsettled spell with high pressure building back in for the weekend and a low pressure system south west of us driving some serious heat up towards the UK.

[Flighty Zoo]

So it’s looking good?

[jarviscocker]

This run so far… 😬

[rlandy95]

4 minutes ago, jarviscocker said:

This run so far… 😬

 

Think Wed & Thurs are looking pretty good at this point with the other models + MetOffice. I'm not putting much stock into the GFS for those days, more interested in Fri, Sat, Sun.

[briddj]

16 minutes ago, jarviscocker said:

This run so far… 😬

 

Erm, not really. So far ..

[jarviscocker]

9 minutes ago, briddj said:

 

Erm, not really. So far ..

I’m happy for this one to stick at the bottom of the previous page 😅

[briddj]

18Z has rain again on the Wednesday, and added on the Sunday.

 

Generally it's a downgrade as a low pushes down from the north to suppress temperatures, but there's no rain of note for most of the festival. 

 

The run is fine but it's nothing remotely spectacular.

Edited June 22 by briddj

[AdrianH]

The GFS is still at odds with the other models. Crazy and very unusual that we haven't got resolution on the position of the low pressure - it's getting close to 72 hours, yet we have a difference of 1000 miles. 

[Alvoram]

Accumulated rain... Most of it falling between Weds and Sun... 

It's not a deluge though, just some showers. 

 

 

 

Temps

Edited June 22 by Alvoram

[JMB01]

Struggling to keep up with where we are at with this rollercoaster but is it too early to at least say we should avoid a mud bath ?

 

[AdrianH]

Something is going to have to give tomorrow. Its rare to have such divergence in models within 96 hours - specifics (like rain) are difficult to pin down sometimes but some of the charts are nothing like each other in the slightest.

[rlandy95]

10 minutes ago, JMB01 said:

Struggling to keep up with where we are at with this rollercoaster but is it too early to at least say we should avoid a mud bath ?

 

 

I personally think its standing at a <1% chance of a mudbath, but given that the models are having a horrendous time of pinning literally anything past day 5 down, its still not 0%.

 

There's definitly been an improvement over the last 24 hours and hopefully that trend continues for the next few days. ECMWF does show some hope with a literal brief incursion of poor weather on either Thur/Fri with temps and dryness rebounding for the weekend. But again its just like the literal definition of a knife edge at the moment. Also just to note the 18Z always seems to throw its toys out of the pram, we'll probably wake to a good 00Z or at least a 06Z later in the morning.

 

My thoughts on how things wil pan out (just remember I'm some guy on a forum I have literally no expertise in this)

 

Wednesday - Hot, hot, hot & dry

 

Thursday - Hot, dry + cloud

 

Friday - A little cooler but still nice, humid, cloudy, a few showers

 

Saturday - Warmer, cloud, humid again possibly a few showers

 

Sunday - On par with Saturday for warmth, periods of sun and patches of cloud,

 

 

Edited June 22 by rlandy95

[Alvoram]

It'll be 2019 all over again... It'll all come together in tomorrow's charts

See this finger, it'll move in bigger, stronger and further North than has been predicted so far, knocking the low to it's East way off up North East towards Russia / Scandinavia, and the finger will stick around for at least a week... Bring a water bottle and Sun Cream!!!



/EndWildSpeculation 🙈😂

[rlandy95]

I feel so strongly this is shaping up to be a repeat of 2022. 

[Alvoram]

3 minutes ago, rlandy95 said:

I feel so strongly this is shaping up to be a repeat of 2022. 

We'd all take it... Actually, we'd all snap your hands off.