The Weather Thread 2024

[rlandy95]

4 minutes ago, Alvoram said:

We'd all take it... Actually, we'd all snap your hands off. 

 

Met Office seem to agree so far, if it does happen I'll snap my own hands off 😂

 

[Sheffield Steve]

Great stuff from the Canadian GEM on the midnight run.   This is the total rainfall between now and the end of the festival and the Pilton forcefield is in full effect.   
A completely dry festival with temps of 27, 25, 21, 21, 20. 
That would do very nicely….
 

[Jinglebells]

1 minute ago, Sheffield Steve said:

Great stuff from the Canadian GEM on the midnight run.   This is the total rainfall between now and the end of the festival and the Pilton forcefield is in full effect.   
A completely dry festival with temps of 27, 25, 21, 21, 20. 
That would do very nicely….
 

I keep holding on to the GEM - it’s been continuously positive unlike the dickhead GFS this morning 😅

[CaledonianGonzo]

Isn't the GFS less useful at close range?

[Sheffield Steve]

And more significantly, the UKMO has a similar picture this morning…

This is total rainfall to midnight Sunday…virtually nothing. 

 

 

and with pressure rising, and the finger coming in, Sunday would be dry too… 

you can see why MetO are going for dry, dry, dry…

 

 

 

Edited June 23 by Sheffield Steve

[CaledonianGonzo]

 

[Euphoricape]

This mornings gfs got to be a massive outlier then? 

[CaledonianGonzo]

Just now, Euphoricape said:

This mornings gfs got to be a massive outlier then? 

 

Definitely shouldn't be focusing on it at the expense of the Met Office.

[Jinglebells]

ICON 0z is also showing a similar picture to GEM / UKMO. Which I means it must be accurate because it’s German but also a stage in SE corner

[AdrianH]

7 minutes ago, Euphoricape said:

This mornings gfs got to be a massive outlier then? 

I thought that yesterday but it had support from its own ensembles. It's massively out of sync with other models though, at least for the Wednesday

[Sheffield Steve]

17 minutes ago, Jinglebells said:

ICON 0z is also showing a similar picture to GEM / UKMO. Which I means it must be accurate because it’s German but also a stage in SE corner

Yep indeed.  ICON total rainfall to midday Sunday.   Virtually no rain throughout the festival. 
 

 

and with a ridge of high pressure moving across, Sunday would be dry too…

 

 

Temperatures with ICON are 25,25,20,15 (!), 17.    Bit of a chilly one for Coldplay……

 

 

 

Edited June 23 by Sheffield Steve

[Sheffield Steve]

And as the icing on the cake, the ECMWF is much better than yesterday… it still has some rain coming through Thursday evening, but it sends most of the heavy storms further east than yesterdays run…

 

 

and it completely does away with the low pressure from yesterdays run for Saturday and Sunday, to give a dry festival apart from the Thursday evening…
 

 

All in all, apart from the GFS, very positive this morning….

 

[Morris48]

00z ECMWF looking good. Dry Wednesday and most of Thursday before a weak front pushes through into the night bringing some light rain. Importantly like the 12z yesterday it keeps the Spanish plume event to the east. From Friday it then wants to build a ridge of high pressure bringing settled conditions for the rest of the festival

[Glasto Weatherwatch]

This is what I wanted to wake up to! If ECM and UKMO are aligned, we’re heading in the right direction 

[briddj]

So close to Glasto, and yet it feels like we re so far away from all the answers! What will the 00Z tell us?

 

GATES OPEN & WEDNESDAY

 

Totally dry at 9am, highs of 21-22!

 

 

Light showers during the day. This is nothing, and an UPGRADE. Highs of24-25.

 

Temps overnight into Thursday of 17!

 

 

 

THURSDAY

 

Some showers around again, but nothing to worry about. Highs of 22-23. UPGRADE!

 

Temps overnight into Friday of 16-17!

 

 

 

Stronger pressure picture. Promising! Latest on the right.

 

FRIDAY

 

Once more there's showers around, but heavier rain misses the site. Lucky. Highs of 19. Not an upgrade.

 

Temps overnight into Saturday of 14-15.

 

 

Pressure picture is better than the 18Z, but the low is trying to push down from the north. Latest on the right.

 

SATURDAY

 

Light rain around but what's this? High of just 16-17?

 

Temps overnight into Sunday of 11-12.

 

 

 

 

Similarities to the 18Z here, with the low pushing down and affecting temps. Latest on the right.

 

 

SUNDAY

 

Ready for some banter? Showers around and highs of ... 13-14!

 

Temps overnight into Monday of 11-12.

 

 

 

The blob of low pressure sits right on top of us, making it feel like February.

 

 

 

SUMMARY

 

A strange run which started off as an upgrade (good news, more reliable timeframe) but next weekend remains a mystery.

 

This run has to be an outlier for the weekend with those temperatures, but it shows how up in the air it is.

 

So, too many showers in this run, with temperatures dropping and a really poor Sunday. Twist!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[briddj]

1 hour ago, CaledonianGonzo said:

Isn't the GFS less useful at close range?

 

Only if the forecast is bad.

[Mcbatesman]

That pack of Lidl premium sausages I buried at the bottom of the garden seems to be paying off

[ramblingmad]

Light showers to cool us all off from a roasting on Wednesday and Thursday all good. Looking  Baltic on Saturday and Sunday though, might bring my puffer jacket.

[AliceR]

Need to see the weekend upgrades come through like we’ve had for Wednesday/thursday… I’ll get my walking boots on now!

 

 

[Colorblindjames]

Packing here now. Can we now confidently say we are avoiding mud bath conditions and can downgrade from wellies to boots? Is it too early for a trainer decision? 

[CaledonianGonzo]

1 minute ago, Colorblindjames said:

Packing here now. Can we now confidently say we are avoiding mud bath conditions and can downgrade from wellies to boots? Is it too early for a trainer decision? 

Walking boots are still the right choice for a mudbath, so if you have walking boots safe to say your wellies can stay home.

[rlandy95]

2 minutes ago, Colorblindjames said:

Packing here now. Can we now confidently say we are avoiding mud bath conditions and can downgrade from wellies to boots? Is it too early for a trainer decision? 

A sturdy pair of waterproof hiking boots will be fine. Think theres no chance its going to be mudbath conditions. Hiking boots in case it does start raining but wellies overkill imo at this point. If your driving always pack them just in case anyway. 

[Ayrshire Chris]

Just now, Colorblindjames said:

Packing here now. Can we now confidently say we are avoiding mud bath conditions and can downgrade from wellies to boots? Is it too early for a trainer decision? 

Packing as well, leaving tomorrow morning. Wellies, boots and trainers all packed in car, same goes for t shirts, fleeces, rain wear, ponchos. Only certainty is that shorts will be worn no matter what the weather,

but things are looking trainers for most days🤞

[CaledonianGonzo]

Its not going to be a repeat of 2016, and I did that with walking boots whilst my friends in wellies all lost them at various points.

[ibilly99]

As Michael always like to say (apart from 2011) it's gonna be the best Glastonbury ever ! The simple equation that sunny dry ones are 100% better than the converse holds true and even Chris Martin can be forgiven his many sins. Pessimists and ye foul vapours of misery begone !

 

Oh and Norway and your YG Bearded Theory prediction - they just got lucky and it would appear they don't have some magic crystal that can read the future.