The Weather Thread 2024

[The Nal]

20 days out. Time for the Netweather lads to meet for their first forecast.

 

[Aragorn]

yes the first GFS Fantasy Island chart at 384 hours away is not far now 

[Pipine]

The models are a mess atm.. hoping for some shift in about a weeks time to something more hopeful, still too far out.  I think the good news is it doesn’t look really wet, just a mixed bag and colder than expected. 

[Jacko45]

7 minutes ago, Pipine said:

The models are a mess atm.. hoping for some shift in about a weeks time to something more hopeful, still too far out.  I think the good news is it doesn’t look really wet, just a mixed bag and colder than expected. 

 

16c in June is sacrilege - if someone says its the hottest June on record I'll be raging. 

[Thunderstruck]

Looks cool/cold with sunshine and showers for the forseeable future.

 

Absolutely no indications of the festival weather, it's just too far out unfortunately!

 

Maybe it's not a bad thing this cold spell is happening now...

[Thunderstruck]

1 hour ago, Jacko45 said:

 

16c in June is sacrilege - if someone says its the hottest June on record I'll be raging. 

 

We're currently running -0.4C below the CET mean for June.

 

Looking at todays ensembles it'll need a significant warm up in the second half of June to bring the CET back above the mean

[O'Doyle Rules]

Getting married next Saturday in Kent.

 

Don't suppose any weather gurus could (i) let me know what they think forecast likely to be and (ii) how likely a miserable forecast 8/9 days out may be subject to change?

 

The forecasts look pretty terrible so feeling quite deflated.

[Ayrshire Chris]

4 minutes ago, O'Doyle Rules said:

Getting married next Saturday in Kent.

 

Don't suppose any weather gurus could (i) let me know what they think forecast likely to be and (ii) how likely a miserable forecast 8/9 days out may be subject to change?

 

The forecasts look pretty terrible so feeling quite deflated.

Best keeping an eye on the met office forecasts for your area from Saturday onwards, and watch the countryfile forecast on Sunday, it gives the weather reasonably accurately up until the following weekend.

but whatever the weather I’m sure you’ll have a brilliant day, best of luck!

[devonhammer]

4 minutes ago, O'Doyle Rules said:

Getting married next Saturday in Kent.

 

Don't suppose any weather gurus could (i) let me know what they think forecast likely to be and (ii) how likely a miserable forecast 8/9 days out may be subject to change?

 

The forecasts look pretty terrible so feeling quite deflated.

 

a) Rain which isn't heavy, but is persistent is by far the most likely scenario.

b) This far out there's still at least a 1 in 3 chance that this is wrong.

c) If it rains on your wedding day, you've made a massive sacrifice to the weather gods and they will return the favour two weeks later in Somerset (and that's a scientific fact)

[devonhammer]

1 minute ago, devonhammer said:

 

a) Rain which isn't heavy, but is persistent is by far the most likely scenario.

b) This far out there's still at least a 1 in 3 chance that this is wrong.

c) If it rains on your wedding day, you've made a massive sacrifice to the weather gods and they will return the favour two weeks later in Somerset (and that's a scientific fact)

 I take it that you mean the 15th?

[O'Doyle Rules]

14 minutes ago, devonhammer said:

 I take it that you mean the 15th?

Yep! 

[Euphoricape]

7 hours ago, The Nal said:

20 days out. Time for the Netweather lads to meet for their first forecast.

 

The lads are over excited because the weather ls looking to pick up from 19th June, just in time. 

[Spindles]

I've always found Ventusky very reliable for weather predictions, unfortunately this is the rain map for Saturday lunchtime, 15th June, take a brolly:

[briddj]

9 hours ago, Bike_Like_A_Mum said:

And @briddjyou've normally got rays of sunshine for us! 🙏🏼✨️

TOO EARLY

[mrfunk]

1 hour ago, Spindles said:

I've always found Ventusky very reliable for weather predictions, unfortunately this is the rain map for Saturday lunchtime, 15th June, take a brolly:

looks similar to Windy.com ...  which model do you use?

[Spindles]

It's Ventusky.com I'm not sure which model(s) they use tbh, but I've been using it for years and it's always done me solid.  

[mrfunk]

28 minutes ago, Spindles said:

It's Ventusky.com I'm not sure which model(s) they use tbh, but I've been using it for years and it's always done me solid.  

sorry to go off topic... its this setting, have you left it set to Auto?

[Spindles]

It is indeed!

[cb4747]

4 hours ago, O'Doyle Rules said:

Getting married next Saturday in Kent.

 

Don't suppose any weather gurus could (i) let me know what they think forecast likely to be and (ii) how likely a miserable forecast 8/9 days out may be subject to change?

 

The forecasts look pretty terrible so feeling quite deflated.

Absolutely hammered it down on our wedding day just as we were signing. 
The photos in the rain were absolutely glorious and incredibly unique. So glad it rained on our wedding day. The saying goes… a wet knot is harder to untie! 

[Thunderstruck]

No real change in the model output this morning, looks cool with northerly type weather the next few days.

 

Brief high pressure ridge settles things down early next week before more unsettled from the west with some bands of showery rain coming through.

 

Nothing disasterous at the moment but nothing in the way of warm settled weather.

[Thunderstruck]

16 hours ago, O'Doyle Rules said:

Getting married next Saturday in Kent.

 

Don't suppose any weather gurus could (i) let me know what they think forecast likely to be and (ii) how likely a miserable forecast 8/9 days out may be subject to change?

 

The forecasts look pretty terrible so feeling quite deflated.

 

Given the current forecast it's just too far out to say with any certainty. Both the main models I look at (GFS and ECMWF) seem to have low pressure over us around that date. But that doesn't mean it will be bad weather - inbetween fronts at this time of year you could end up with blazing sunshine! All about the timing...

[devonhammer]

16 hours ago, O'Doyle Rules said:

Yep! 

In the crazy world of weather forecasting, Kent is now showing as dry all day on the 15th

[devonhammer]

Latest ensembles showing limited rain in the run up:

 

[A Particular Grey Chihuahu]

I'm getting really nervous about the weather now. Praying for the summer to kick in!

[Neverneverland]

13 hours ago, cb4747 said:

Absolutely hammered it down on our wedding day just as we were signing. 
The photos in the rain were absolutely glorious and incredibly unique. So glad it rained on our wedding day. The saying goes… a wet knot is harder to untie! 

I woke up on our wedding day to absolutely biblical rain, didn't stop all day except for an hour in the afternoon for a few photo's. We had the best day despite the rain, it just meant everybody stayed together inside in the bar rather than spreading off into little groups outside, don't worry about the weather you'll have an amazing time regardless.