The Weather Thread 2024

[kemosabe]

1 minute ago, Aragorn said:

Left hand side shows pressure

Generally high pressure is 1020 and above and means usually dry weather depending on position of high over UK. Anything below 1020 and you're getting into more low pressure territory and therefore more chance of rain 

 

And what are the e numbers that make up the chart? 

[Aragorn]

When weather models run they feed in lots of different data over a number of different runs. There's normally an operation run, a control run, the mean of all runs then lots of others with different starting data fed in.

 

The e numbers are each individual run 

 

 

[gooner1990]

🤦‍♂️

[gherkin8r]

12 minutes ago, gooner1990 said:

🤦‍♂️

The rain in mm is the key data point there and while the lightning bolts, rain drops and clouds in the symbols looks pretty scary, there's not a massive amount of rain on any of those days given the relatively high temps and some sun

[Supernintendo Chalmers]

It's not the rain that concerns me, it's the temperature, particularly at night. It was low single figures at the Underworld gig in Cornwall last night. Dry, yes, but I'm so glad I wasn't camping there. Ridiculously cold for this time of year. 

 

It was lovely and sunny yesterday but it struggled to get above 16c during the day. 

 

That said, I guess we'd take yesterday's weather if it meant no rain. We'll need to pack some serious layers though! 

[charlierc]

15 minutes ago, Supernintendo Chalmers said:

It's not the rain that concerns me, it's the temperature, particularly at night. It was low single figures at the Underworld gig in Cornwall last night. Dry, yes, but I'm so glad I wasn't camping there. Ridiculously cold for this time of year. 

 

It was lovely and sunny yesterday but it struggled to get above 16c during the day. 

 

That said, I guess we'd take yesterday's weather if it meant no rain. We'll need to pack some serious layers though! 

Seems to be repeating last year where the rest of Europe gets a stronger summer whereas ours is weaker.

 

Yay.

[nikkic]

8 hours ago, Supernintendo Chalmers said:

It's not the rain that concerns me, it's the temperature, particularly at night. It was low single figures at the Underworld gig in Cornwall last night. Dry, yes, but I'm so glad I wasn't camping there. Ridiculously cold for this time of year. 

 

It was lovely and sunny yesterday but it struggled to get above 16c during the day. 

 

That said, I guess we'd take yesterday's weather if it meant no rain. We'll need to pack some serious layers though! 

My wife and I were discussing this last night. 

Looking back at old photos, these temps are similar to 2008-09, most of us had a hoody, coat and beanie on in the evening. 
 

Whilst it’s not ideal, I’ll take dry and colder over wet. 

Not something we’ve had to do for quite a few festivals! 

[jonnyisRFC]

9 hours ago, Supernintendo Chalmers said:

It's not the rain that concerns me, it's the temperature, particularly at night. It was low single figures at the Underworld gig in Cornwall last night. Dry, yes, but I'm so glad I wasn't camping there. Ridiculously cold for this time of year. 

 

It was lovely and sunny yesterday but it struggled to get above 16c during the day. 

 

That said, I guess we'd take yesterday's weather if it meant no rain. We'll need to pack some serious layers though! 

I remember it getting down to 3 degrees one night at Reading festival a few years ago, bitter! 

[Pipine]

18 hours ago, PollyPeach said:

I'd almost rather bad weather predictions at this stage, as it's definitely going to change. 

This is my theory.. the longer we have this unseasonal weather the more chance there is of it turning around by festival week, these weird conditions can’t last forever.  Better than us enjoying a month long heatwave before the festival as that also wouldn’t last. 

Edited June 10 by Pipine

[Ayrshire Chris]

2 hours ago, nikkic said:

My wife and I were discussing this last night. 

Looking back at old photos, these temps are similar to 2008-09, most of us had a hoody, coat and beanie on in the evening. 
 

Whilst it’s not ideal, I’ll take dry and colder over wet. 

Not something we’ve had to do for quite a few festivals! 

So it’s pack one of these this year?

[AdrianH]

No sign of any change yet - chilly with sunny spells but more rain about this week (and likely the next 10 days). Not monsoon conditions though.

[Aragorn]

Mean run on the latest ensembles shows a pressure rise as we enter the festival, the precipitation ensembles are pretty sure there is rain in the build up but petering out as we approach the festival. 

 

Will be alot of chop and change over this week.   

 

 

[Jacko45]

47 minutes ago, Aragorn said:

Mean run on the latest ensembles shows a pressure rise as we enter the festival, the precipitation ensembles are pretty sure there is rain in the build up but petering out as we approach the festival. 

 

Will be alot of chop and change over this week.   

 

 

 

 

Still very much early days as you say Aragorn, as others have said - you kind of expect rain it's british summer, but our heating kicked on this morning and it's 12c. 

 

That must be wildly strange as temperature for June. 

[Lycra]

1 hour ago, AdrianH said:

No sign of any change yet - chilly with sunny spells but more rain about this week (and likely the next 10 days). Not monsoon conditions though.

Doesn't have to be monsoon conditions to turn the ground to a quagmire. In 2009 it turned from firm to mud and rivers after just 1hr of fairly heavy rain. Fortunately it was late on the Sunday night.

[kemosabe]

58 minutes ago, Aragorn said:

Mean run on the latest ensembles shows a pressure rise as we enter the festival, the precipitation ensembles are pretty sure there is rain in the build up but petering out as we approach the festival. 

 

Will be alot of chop and change over this week.   

 

 

But even the best ones in the pressure chart are only just scraping above the rain line, and the mean is below. It's looking a bit depressing isn't it (while acknowledging it can change)  

[Thunderstruck]

7 minutes ago, kemosabe said:

But even the best ones in the pressure chart are only just scraping above the rain line, and the mean is below. It's looking a bit depressing isn't it (while acknowledging it can change)  

 

I'm not sure what you mean about the pressure runs scraping above the rain line?

 

Don't worry about the festival weather yet. There's absolutely no agreement at the moment, it's simply too far out.

 

[Alison C]

We all need to start burying our sausages.

In parts of the UK, especially Scotland and northern England, there's a quirky tradition of burying a sausage to bring good weather 🤣🤣🤣

[Jacko45]

Time for a bit of positivity - yes the temperatures this week on-site continue to be below June average BUT there's plenty of sunshine for the heavy machinery driving all over the ground. 

 

General Forecast:

 

 

When it does rain: 

 

Thursday - nothing hugely sustained, some heavy showers but not an all day thing. 

 

Friday - again showery, nothing crazy or heavily sustained. 

 

 

Sat/Sunday - very similar story. 

[kemosabe]

3 minutes ago, Thunderstruck said:

 

I'm not sure what you mean about the pressure runs scraping above the rain line?

 

Don't worry about the festival weather yet. There's absolutely no agreement at the moment, it's simply too far out.

 

Aragorn said yesterday anything above 1200 = generally dry weather 

Almost all of those runs are below that, expecting rain on nearly every day 

[devonhammer]

I'm glad it's 2 and a half weeks because the latest GFS data has a biblical low pressure in the Atlantic on the first day of the festival. If this happens, we have to hope that the high pressure ridge from the Azores strengthens and bumps it up to Scotland, otherwise, I don't want to think about it.

 

[Jacko45]

1 minute ago, devonhammer said:

I'm glad it's 2 and a half weeks because the latest GFS data has a biblical low pressure in the Atlantic on the first day of the festival. If this happens, we have to hope that the high pressure ridge from the Azores strengthens and bumps it up to Scotland, otherwise, I don't want to think about it.

 

 

Surely these temperatures aka 12c in June are very very rare.

 

Come on weather gods, it's looking tough this year. 

[briddj]

The first GFS runs into Monday and Tuesday of festival week look a little more positive, but still far too far out.

[Thunderstruck]

13 minutes ago, kemosabe said:

Aragorn said yesterday anything above 1200 = generally dry weather 

Almost all of those runs are below that, expecting rain on nearly every day 

 

higher pressure tends to mean dry weather, but in reality it's not that straightforward.

 

Also, the festival is too far away to have any idea what the weather will be like.

[Jacko45]

8 minutes ago, briddj said:

The first GFS runs into Monday and Tuesday of festival week look a little more positive, but still far too far out.

 

Bridd knows his sh*t btw people.

 

 

(And I want to believe him)

[TopBananas]

Can someone who has been on site reassure me and tell me that's not a mud bath down by the Pyramid...?