The Weather Thread 2024

[Ayrshire Chris]

45 minutes ago, The Nal said:

 

Oh Jesus Gav's escaped from Broadmoor!

 

 

 

Thought for a minute that was a hint of a westlife secret set.

[4AssedMonkey]

2011 - wet before the festival, raining most of if not all Tues/Weds.  Stood in the Gate D queue, which for some reason they had re-routed near the gate up a steep and off camber slippery clay slope.  It was carnage.  So so many people slipped, fell over, or trolleys went sideways and spilled loads.  f**king.  Nightmare.  The only real positive was that everyone really mucked in and helped out those worst affected.  By the time we'd pitched the tent in driving rain and got everything inside I was absolutely exhausted.

 

2016 though, wasn't raining heavily on the Weds IIRC.  It was just the cut up and spongey ground.  Although I'd take 2011 over 2016 in a heartbeat.  At least it dried out near the end.

[Beaver89]

42 minutes ago, 4AssedMonkey said:

2011 - wet before the festival, raining most of if not all Tues/Weds.  Stood in the Gate D queue, which for some reason they had re-routed near the gate up a steep and off camber slippery clay slope.  It was carnage.  So so many people slipped, fell over, or trolleys went sideways and spilled loads.  f**king.  Nightmare.  The only real positive was that everyone really mucked in and helped out those worst affected.  By the time we'd pitched the tent in driving rain and got everything inside I was absolutely exhausted.

 

2016 though, wasn't raining heavily on the Weds IIRC.  It was just the cut up and spongey ground.  Although I'd take 2011 over 2016 in a heartbeat.  At least it dried out near the end.

No look here, I had finally erased the memory of that bloody 2011 queuing fiasco and you had to go and replant it. Thanks!

 

😉

[Jacko45]

Usually excited for @briddjposts, now fearing them greatly.

[LinvoyPrimus]

7 minutes ago, Beaver89 said:

No look here, I had finally erased the memory of that bloody 2011 queuing fiasco and you had to go and replant it. Thanks!

 

😉

 

I still vividly remember sifting through mud to recover beer cans as one of our crates split, spilling its contents into a massive puddle.

 

And also my mate repeatedly losing his mind after deciding to wear boat shoes and chinos (no idea what he was thinking).

[Tiesto13]

3 hours ago, GeorgeI said:

Forgive my ignorance but how can it go from this positive to it's going to be horrendous in the space of 12 hours?

Is this guy using different data to you or does it change that quick?

  

 

A good way to think about this is trying to predict the Euros. What a lot of these forecasts are trying to do (the operational forecasts that often get referred to) is the equivalent of predicting the winner of the Euro's, the correct score in the final and the correct result in every game along the way. Yes you can make a prediction that England will win 3-0 in the final against Spain, but you'd get pretty long odds at this point on such a prediction.

 

So thats why they can change massively from run to run, because some small change in inputs (England lose to Denmark tomorrow) and the whole tournament could look completely different. 

 

So looking at any one operational forecast is not that helpful really, its giving you a prediction that probably has more chance of being wrong than it does being right this far out. Operational runs become more useful the closer they are in time to the point you're looking at. In the same way that predicting England will win the world cup now is more likely to be wrong than right, if England were 1-0 up in the final, that prediction would be much more likely to be right because a lot of the uncertainty has been removed (it can still go wrong even at that point though).

 

Thats why the ensemble is more important. As thats really showing the range of likely outcomes. If the ensemble shows a lot of forecasts in agreement, then that means that even if you mess around with the inputs to the model quite a bit, it doesn't change the outcomes significantly and things are expected to be easy to predict. However if the ensemble shows a range of different outcomes, then that means things are very hard to predict and things could change at short notice. The ensemble is the equivalent of saying England have a 20% chance of winning the Euros and Scotland have a 0.2% chance of winning the Euros. 

[Iphigenia]

All this talk is an eye opener. I was happy before I looked here! Why do people here know better than the actual forecasts on the BBC et al? The BBC should employ you guys!

[Tiesto13]

I'm pretty sure the BBC no longer uses the Met Office base data/models and therefore its not considered to be as accurate as it used to be anymore. 

[Jacko45]

1 minute ago, Tiesto13 said:

I'm pretty sure the BBC no longer uses the Met Office base data/models and therefore its not considered to be as accurate as it used to be anymore. 

 

That is correct. 

[Tiesto13]

On that note, the Met Office holding steady with their long range forecast (although note that they see a large range of outcomes for the end of next week, in other words saying who knows).

 

Quote

Predominantly fine and settled through the period and for much of the country turning much warmer than we have seen in recent weeks. At first some thicker cloud could bring some outbreaks of mostly light rain, this mainly affecting northwestern areas. However for most it will be dry throughout, and likely to turn increasingly warm as we move into next week. There is a chance that this could persist for much of the rest of the period, turning increasingly hot, however by the latter part of next week we see a large range of outcomes, some of which allow for a return of temperatures closer to average. However the trend toward much warmer conditions continuing through next week is preferred.

 

[devonhammer]

2 hours ago, Supernintendo Chalmers said:

Question for the meteorological Poindexters: is there something about the geographical location of the UK that makes predicting the weather such a nightmare? Almost every other country I've been to, weather forecasts seem to be much more consistent and reliable. Over here it literally changes by the hour, often swinging from heatwave to biblical rain in a heartbeat 

 

TLDR Short answer: Yes

 

Long answer (if you read this and get bored it's your own fault):

There's a set of cells that have air going up at the equator and down at North African latitudes (and desert areas in Southern hemisphere) called Hadley cells. Same happens at the poles - up at Iceland type latudes and down at the poles (polar cells). These two types are strong and drive a lot of weather (along with a load of other things like rotation of the earth, amount of air vs sea etc etc). In between these powerful cells are Ferrel cells which are pretty weak and mostly influenced by their Hadley and Polar neighbours. We are at the North of the northern Ferrel cell. Because the cells move both normally and seasonally, we can get more or less influence from the polar cell. Essentially that polar cell boundary with rising air causes low pressure and if it's a bit south we'll get wet and a bit North and we'll be dry.

 

This is just one part, but it's a driver - there's also the fact that we're an island near a continent, so massivel affected by the sea air masses and continental air masses, which will also fight it out. Then you've got the coriolis affect which causes the air to spin around as well as circulate in cells. This means we're affected by what happens to our West as well as from the North and South. Why we get bothered by jet streams is that they're showing us the outcome of all the factors mentioned. Jet streams give us low pressure - low pressure gives us rain.

 

This is massively simplified and what I remember from 30 years ago, but you get the idea.

[Nobody Interesting]

Just been looking at the Jet Stream forecasts and comparing to the morning versions - they are 90% or more different.

The low over Biscay is shoved off into southern Europe and the high is able to build in more so pushes the 'Greenland' low further north. All those I have looked at show Weds to be hot and dry.

I have zero doubt everything will change on almost every run until the low arriving Friday/Saturday this week comes and goes and then we might get some certainty.

[NotAnInsider]

 

Met Office have done a video that covers (and mentions!) Glastonbury. It's worth watching, but in short.

• Looking good out to Thursday
• Uncertainty after that - as you would expect. Azores high is possible.
• 50/50 chance of low pressure domination by the weekend
• Even in some of the more negative scenarios there is a bit of a North/South split. Good for us.

So more good than bad at the moment.

[Jacko45]

5 minutes ago, NotAnInsider said:

 

Met Office have done a video that covers (and mentions!) Glastonbury. It's worth watching, but in short.

• Looking good out to Thursday
• Uncertainty after that - as you would expect. Azores high is possible.
• 50/50 chance of low pressure domination by the weekend
• Even in some of the more negative scenarios there is a bit of a North/South split. Good for us.

So more good than bad at the moment.

 

That my friend is what we call KNIFE EDGE

[Olshansky]

hoping for a dry fest obviously, but as as I'm not setting up the tent in a downpour, it's a win. 

[RaphPH]

I just don’t want mud. I’m staying in a hotel each night anyway! 

[Crazyfool01]

3 minutes ago, RaphPH said:

I just don’t want mud. I’m staying in a hotel each night anyway! 

efest photos ? punter ? or both ?

[RaphPH]

3 minutes ago, Crazyfool01 said:

efest photos ? punter ? or both ?

Both 🙂 

[briddj]

I've got a good feeling about this run.

[rlandy95]

Wednesday already looking better 😅

Edited June 19 by rlandy95

[AdrianH]

UKMO has the UK under a more robust high pressure ridge at 168 (Wednesday morning). The Atlantic low pressure might still get in but looks delayed at least

[devonhammer]

4 minutes ago, briddj said:

I've got a good feeling about this run.

 

I hate this. I really need to go, but I'm watching percentages click up on Netweather for something that doesn't actually matter this far out.

[briddj]

UPGRADE KLAXON 🚨

[gherkin8r]

 

[AdrianH]

GFS with the initial low going south too which should pump up heat in our direction and support the high pressure over us