If the progress bar was a true and honest reflection of what's happening - then yes.
But in most cases and especially for this one, progress bars cannot be trusted. On the Sam Fender sale, the progress along it was very uneven to say the least - I found it sitting at near zero for a while, then suddenly jump to nearly complete.
speed does help show what's happening, if you're halfway through at 9.05 then you probably have a decent chance, but if you've barely moved by 9.15 its probably not happening