UK Politics

[kaosmark2]

Well I finally bailed just after seeing Truss lose her seat. Feeling delicate today but watching Truss, Mogg, Galloway, Fox, Donehan, Schapps, Coffey, Ashworth all lose their seats was gorgeous. Also glad to see the back of the SNP.

 

Delighted for the Greens, Lib Dems, delighted for Jess Phillips, annoyed Reform got 4 but glad it wasn't worse after that exit poll. I suspect they'd either done Farage's seat or selected some weird polling stations given how badly wrong they got Barnsley.

 

Several narrow misses, IDS is completely Labour's fault, gutted to not take out Streeting, Hunt, Braverman, Patel. I'm still unsure how I feel about Corbyn holding his seat. 4 years ago I'd have wanted rid of him but now I'm kinda glad that there's a few things to unsettle Starmer.

 

Electoral reform is a must now, and I say that despite parties on the "left" playing FPTP far better than Reform/Tories/SNP. I don't think we'll see it this parliament, but I suspect Labour will spend time in this one quietly preparing a manifesto pledge for 2029. It's one of the very few things they could do to appeal to disenfranchised Reform and Green voters without pissing off the base that stuck with them.

 

Having such a huge majority but with so many seats on narrow victories will make for interesting government decisions. They can get anything they want through - with little fear of immediate rebellion - but they have to make sure they're governing with their voter base in mind. They really can't afford to piss off too many people from any section that voted for them.

 

Interesting times ahead, and I am feeling a bit more optimistic/positive about a Labour government than I had feared. I'm vaguely hopeful that they'll actually try and do anything about urgent issues like starving children, sewage in our water supply/beaches, the climate crisis, and our rattling public infrastructure. I'm not particularly confident they'll do anything about selling weapons used to commit genocide, protecting the vulnerable, or the vast generational, class, and racial inequality in society, but hopefully now they're in government they'll pay less attention to the idiotic culture war stuff and actually do something. We've had no proactivity in government for nearly 2 years so there's a huge amount of work to do just to get the basics sorted again.

[lazyred]

Pat McFadden going into Downing Street after Angela Rayner. I think he'll be the real deputy with more power in the background even if Rayner has the title.

[mattiloy]

1 hour ago, kaosmark2 said:

Well I finally bailed just after seeing Truss lose her seat. Feeling delicate today but watching Truss, Mogg, Galloway, Fox, Donehan, Schapps, Coffey, Ashworth all lose their seats was gorgeous. Also glad to see the back of the SNP.

 

Delighted for the Greens, Lib Dems, delighted for Jess Phillips, annoyed Reform got 4 but glad it wasn't worse after that exit poll. I suspect they'd either done Farage's seat or selected some weird polling stations given how badly wrong they got Barnsley.

 

Several narrow misses, IDS is completely Labour's fault, gutted to not take out Streeting, Hunt, Braverman, Patel. I'm still unsure how I feel about Corbyn holding his seat. 4 years ago I'd have wanted rid of him but now I'm kinda glad that there's a few things to unsettle Starmer.

 

Electoral reform is a must now, and I say that despite parties on the "left" playing FPTP far better than Reform/Tories/SNP. I don't think we'll see it this parliament, but I suspect Labour will spend time in this one quietly preparing a manifesto pledge for 2029. It's one of the very few things they could do to appeal to disenfranchised Reform and Green voters without pissing off the base that stuck with them.

 

Having such a huge majority but with so many seats on narrow victories will make for interesting government decisions. They can get anything they want through - with little fear of immediate rebellion - but they have to make sure they're governing with their voter base in mind. They really can't afford to piss off too many people from any section that voted for them.

 

Interesting times ahead, and I am feeling a bit more optimistic/positive about a Labour government than I had feared. I'm vaguely hopeful that they'll actually try and do anything about urgent issues like starving children, sewage in our water supply/beaches, the climate crisis, and our rattling public infrastructure. I'm not particularly confident they'll do anything about selling weapons used to commit genocide, protecting the vulnerable, or the vast generational, class, and racial inequality in society, but hopefully now they're in government they'll pay less attention to the idiotic culture war stuff and actually do something. We've had no proactivity in government for nearly 2 years so there's a huge amount of work to do just to get the basics sorted again.

 

A fair weighted analysis.
 

I dont think they will but if Labour have any sense at all then they’ll back electoral reform, maybe as you say in the 2029 manifesto. To only increase uk vote share thanks to SNP collapse, no increase in England, down in wales - fewer overall votes than Corbyn in 2019 - despite a friendly media, tactical voting, #getthetoriesout - they have to see this as what it is - mainly a product of a mad system that yes this time gives you an enormous majority on 34%, but can also give one the other way on 32%.

 

A PR system gives a lib lab green snp coalition (assuming they would work together) a majority in basically every election since ww2

Edited Friday at 01:53 PM by mattiloy

[fraybentos1]

4 minutes ago, mattiloy said:

A PR system gives a lib lab green snp coalition (assuming they would work together) a majority in basically every election since ww2

Only if you assume that people wouldn't change the way they vote if the voting system changed and more parties wouldn't emerge and take votes too.

 

Also as you say, big IF with those parties working together

[lazyred]

No voting system is perfect. The problem I have with PR is it shifts away from individual MP's towards party groups. It's harder for independents and mavericks to get elected. To get around this the Scottish system has constituency MSP plus top ups from party lists which I don't like

Edited Friday at 02:03 PM by lazyred

[mattiloy]

2 minutes ago, lazyred said:

No voting system is perfect. The problem I have with PR is it shifts away from individual MP's towards party groups. It's harder for independents and mavericks to get elected. To get around this the Scottish system has constituency MSP plus top ups from party lists which I don't like

Sure but i mean most of the time voters just get what they’re given under fptp too and vote for the party. Independents and mavericks are still vanishingly rare in fptp and never have any actual power.

[kaosmark2]

6 minutes ago, mattiloy said:

 

A fair weighted analysis.
 

I dont think they will but if Labour have any sense at all then they’ll back electoral reform, maybe as you say in the 2029 manifesto. To only increase uk vote share thanks to SNP collapse, no increase in England, down in wales - fewer overall votes than Corbyn in 2019 - despite a friendly media, tactical voting, #getthetoriesout - they have to see this as what it is - mainly a product of a mad system that yes this time gives you an enormous majority on 34%, but can also give one the other way on 32%.

 

A PR system gives a lib lab green snp coalition (assuming they would work together) a majority in basically every election since ww2

 

I mean, the British public are very very wary of PR, particularly party list systems that enforce candidates without an easy/direct way to get rid of specific individuals. I don't think we'll see full PR, but I'm hoping this will generate public support for STV or similar.

 

Lib/Lab/Green/SNP have very distinct supporters and I think it's a mistake to think that permanent coalitions of the same parties would actually be a good thing.

 

Most parties, and all larger parties, are coalitions within themselves. If the voting system changes, then at some point, Tories and Labour will both fragment into 2 or 3 parties each. Not immediately obviously, as the party machine brings a lot of ground work with it. That said, we've seen with Faiza Shaheen and Leanne Mohammed's near misses, and Corbyn and the 3 other independent's victories, if a candidate can bring a lot of the campaigning staff with them, they can make electoral waves. 

[efcfanwirral]

2 hours ago, lazyred said:

Thats true of any govt with a majority

Indeed, it does concern me whoever is in charge.  The larger the majority the worse it is. I voted Labour but am putting a huge amount of trust in a system that I don't trust at all. We need them to be their own opposition, and for there to be a degree of freedom of debate within the party. he said "country before party" and we have to take him at his word until proven otherwise. 

 

I just want a boring term, no drama, no wars, no mad policies, no PM resignations. Just normal running of the country. I don't believe that'll be possible due to external factors that are nothing to do with the government or really this country at all, but that's the dream

 

2 hours ago, Neil said:

Sour grapes that green policies are too stupid to be supported.

Ha I'm certainly no Green voter, my views on the green party pretty much align with yours! 

[lazyred]

6 minutes ago, mattiloy said:

Sure but i mean most of the time voters just get what they’re given under fptp too and vote for the party. Independents and mavericks are still vanishingly rare in fptp and never have any actual power.

True.  I'd be happy with the Scottish system perhaps with a recall mechanism to get rid of regional MPs. Either that or ranking individuals in a single seat

[kaosmark2]

3 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Indeed, it does concern me whoever is in charge.  The larger the majority the worse it is. I voted Labour but am putting a huge amount of trust in a system that I don't trust at all. We need them to be their own opposition, and for there to be a degree of freedom of debate within the party. he said "country before party" and we have to take him at his word until proven otherwise. 

 

I just want a boring term, no drama, no wars, no mad policies, no PM resignations. Just normal running of the country. I don't believe that'll be possible due to external factors that are nothing to do with the government or really this country at all, but that's the dream

 

So I'm generally not a fan of big majorities, but I would say, ~120 out of the 170 majority are held by 3000 votes or less. With the tiny vote share and a lot of narrow victories, to all directions, should make them pretty scared of pushing through notably unpopular policies. They can lose seats to votes in all directions, so they're forced to govern from the centre, and largely forced to govern for virtually everyone.

 

My big fear is that they'll pander somewhat excessively to Reform, but actually, if they improve public services, housing, jobs, and cost of living, then its harder for them to point at "look at how miserable those immigrants are making your life". I'm probably being overly optimistic here, but Starmer's rhetoric about the small boats crossing and processing asylum claims in the debates was one of the few things in the last few months where he improved my opinion of him. Processing claims quicker and creating safe routes will also do a lot to stop the small boat crossings, and it is possible to manage the country in a positive way that will appease many Reform voters (not the nutjob racists and the leaders, but their voters). I don't really think they're going to get kinder on their rhetoric, but it is plausible.

[Nobody Interesting]

1 hour ago, mattiloy said:

 

A fair weighted analysis.
 

I dont think they will but if Labour have any sense at all then they’ll back electoral reform, maybe as you say in the 2029 manifesto. To only increase uk vote share thanks to SNP collapse, no increase in England, down in wales - fewer overall votes than Corbyn in 2019 - despite a friendly media, tactical voting, #getthetoriesout - they have to see this as what it is - mainly a product of a mad system that yes this time gives you an enormous majority on 34%, but can also give one the other way on 32%.

 

A PR system gives a lib lab green snp coalition (assuming they would work together) a majority in basically every election since ww2

 

1.6% more votes than last time.

[Nobody Interesting]

54 minutes ago, kaosmark2 said:

 

I mean, the British public are very very wary of PR, particularly party list systems that enforce candidates without an easy/direct way to get rid of specific individuals. I don't think we'll see full PR, but I'm hoping this will generate public support for STV or similar.

 

Lib/Lab/Green/SNP have very distinct supporters and I think it's a mistake to think that permanent coalitions of the same parties would actually be a good thing.

 

Most parties, and all larger parties, are coalitions within themselves. If the voting system changes, then at some point, Tories and Labour will both fragment into 2 or 3 parties each. Not immediately obviously, as the party machine brings a lot of ground work with it. That said, we've seen with Faiza Shaheen and Leanne Mohammed's near misses, and Corbyn and the 3 other independent's victories, if a candidate can bring a lot of the campaigning staff with them, they can make electoral waves. 

 

We more or less (normally) have generic party lists as those they want are  simply put in the safest seats.

A poll done a coupke of weeks ago showed 62% in favour of PR

[mattiloy]

5 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

 

1.6% more votes than last time.

Share yes, but over half a million fewer votes in quantity. Which is astonishing really. What a mad system, the much maligned 2019 Corbyn, patron saint of losers, persuaded more individual voters to take their arse to the voting booth and cross an X than the all conquering Starmer.

[Nobody Interesting]

3 minutes ago, mattiloy said:

Share yes, but over half a million fewer votes in quantity. Which is astonishing really. What a mad system, the much maligned 2019 Corbyn, patron saint of losers, persuaded more individual voters to take their arse to the voting booth and cross an X than the all conquering Starmer.

 

Ah, I had not noticed that, thanks.

It is a stupid stupid system.

 

[kaosmark2]

28 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

 

We more or less (normally) have generic party lists as those they want are  simply put in the safest seats.

A poll done a coupke of weeks ago showed 62% in favour of PR

We do have ways to kick out unpopular but loyal candidates though.

 

I'm not defending FPTP btw, I just want to emphasise how it's a tough sell and that I think a compromise system is possibly better for the UK as well as an easier sell.

[Nobody Interesting]

58 minutes ago, kaosmark2 said:

We do have ways to kick out unpopular but loyal candidates though.

 

I'm not defending FPTP btw, I just want to emphasise how it's a tough sell and that I think a compromise system is possibly better for the UK as well as an easier sell.

 

That was the arguement used for the referendum on AV - a system few understood.

Given how many find it hard enough to not pout their X next to the conservative the simpler the system the better 😉

[PDAD]

Let's use a FPTP referendum to determine whether we introduce PR. 326 yes' = PR. Compromise. 😂

[steviewevie]

In deepest darkest Plaid Cymru country. Scared.

[steviewevie]

Everyone is talking about PR when it f**ks the right.

[pink_triangle]

I don’t really understand the comparison between different year’s elections. We don’t have a system which works on total votes. Each election has its own individual circumstances, different reasons for voting smaller parties and tactical voting. Labour was piling up votes in London in 2019 but at the expense of more marginal areas.

[pink_triangle]

Tom Tugendaht would probably be my choice for conservative leader of the contenders. That is clearly the kiss of death as i suspect my choice has never been chosen!

[steviewevie]

 

[steviewevie]

 

[steviewevie]

[steviewevie]