UK Politics

[kaosmark2]

10 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

In all honesty, I don't think this next leader matters. It's the one after that's really interesting. While I think there's an outside chance Labour lose their majority next election, there's no way the Tories go back to being the largest party.

 

Bear in mind in '97 they went through, Hague, IDS, and Howard before Cameron, the general thing in UK politics after getting kicked out of govt is the major parties need at least 1-2 leaders before they become electorally viable again.

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, kaosmark2 said:

In all honesty, I don't think this next leader matters. It's the one after that's really interesting. While I think there's an outside chance Labour lose their majority next election, there's no way the Tories go back to being the largest party.

 

Bear in mind in '97 they went through, Hague, IDS, and Howard before Cameron, the general thing in UK politics after getting kicked out of govt is the major parties need at least 1-2 leaders before they become electorally viable again.

maybe, possibly, who knows. Starmer isn't popular, public services are a bit f**ked and there isn't a lot of money, net zero stuff is going to be disruptive and piss a lot of people off.

 

[Neil]

4 hours ago, steviewevie said:

the next leader of the official opposition?

 

scuton was thatcher's hero he inspired 'thatcherisam', his book (I forget the title) was unreadable (for me, i really tried).

[steviewevie]

I guess what keeps Tories out is Reform.

[Nobody Interesting]

39 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

 

Over many elections 35% voting Tory is around the average - so the average Tory vote cares who is leader whilst the rest of us don't. Seems fair to me.

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

 

Over many elections 35% voting Tory is around the average - so the average Tory vote cares who is leader whilst the rest of us don't. Seems fair to me.

it says 62% of tory voters care

[Spuddhism]

6 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

I guess what keeps Tories out is Reform.

I can see Reform going the way of the BNP and UKIP by the next election. In the interim, members will get caught on camera expressing race hate, Farage will lose interest, and the party will implode (albeit to be replaced by something similar - they'll just put lipstick on a racist pig and relaunch under a new name). 

[Spuddhism]

Just now, Spuddhism said:

I can see Reform going the way of the BNP and UKIP by the next election. In the interim, members will get caught on camera expressing race hate, Farage will lose interest, and the party will implode (albeit to be replaced by something similar - they'll just put lipstick on a racist pig and relaunch under a new name). 

 

(Apologies to pigs) 

[kaosmark2]

20 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

maybe, possibly, who knows. Starmer isn't popular, public services are a bit f**ked and there isn't a lot of money, net zero stuff is going to be disruptive and piss a lot of people off.

 

The summer recess isn't helping Starmer's popularity, but largely, they've done a few of the key very urgent things, the budget will be relevant to political nerds like us, while most people will get on with their lives and just hope to see cost of living improve. An internal Tory leadership contest and them banging on about culture war sh*t will get less attention than what's happening in the US or in the cabinet separately.

[steviewevie]

Just now, Spuddhism said:

I can see Reform going the way of the BNP and UKIP by the next election. In the interim, members will get caught on camera expressing race hate, Farage will lose interest, and the party will implode (albeit to be replaced by something similar - they'll just put lipstick on a racist pig and relaunch under a new name). 

Maybe how Reform does depends on immigration numbers, how Labour are doing with small boat crossings, and the direction the tory party goes in (which is where this leadership election comes in)

[Spuddhism]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

Maybe how Reform does depends on immigration numbers, how Labour are doing with small boat crossings, and the direction the tory party goes in (which is where this leadership election comes in)

Those things will all influence voter behaviour for sure, but I can see Reform having the capacity to self destruct regardless. 

[kaosmark2]

4 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Maybe how Reform does depends on immigration numbers, how Labour are doing with small boat crossings, and the direction the tory party goes in (which is where this leadership election comes in)

Reform got ~4m votes this election, UKIP in 2015 got ~3.8m. Barely an increase since before Brexit. The difference was the campaigning managed to be focused enough to get them actual seats.

[Nobody Interesting]

6 minutes ago, kaosmark2 said:

The summer recess isn't helping Starmer's popularity, but largely, they've done a few of the key very urgent things, the budget will be relevant to political nerds like us, while most people will get on with their lives and just hope to see cost of living improve. An internal Tory leadership contest and them banging on about culture war sh*t will get less attention than what's happening in the US or in the cabinet separately.

 

You mean the recess he said several times might not happen as there were so many urgent things that needed dealing with but then happened cos they all wanted holidays? and yes I know Starmer has cancelled his.

[Nobody Interesting]

10 minutes ago, Spuddhism said:

I can see Reform going the way of the BNP and UKIP by the next election. In the interim, members will get caught on camera expressing race hate, Farage will lose interest, and the party will implode (albeit to be replaced by something similar - they'll just put lipstick on a racist pig and relaunch under a new name). 

 

8 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Maybe how Reform does depends on immigration numbers, how Labour are doing with small boat crossings, and the direction the tory party goes in (which is where this leadership election comes in)

 

I would say the majority of Reform voters rarely, if ever, watch the news and just read hate filled rages like the Mail for their facts. Most hang on the word of Garage regardless of it being BS or not.

 

[steviewevie]

10 minutes ago, kaosmark2 said:

Reform got ~4m votes this election, UKIP in 2015 got ~3.8m. Barely an increase since before Brexit. The difference was the campaigning managed to be focused enough to get them actual seats.

Yes, went away with brexit/boris...but now back and that 4mill hurts both Tories and Labour.

[steviewevie]

15 minutes ago, Spuddhism said:

Those things will all influence voter behaviour for sure, but I can see Reform having the capacity to self destruct regardless. 

yes, possible...but then so could all the parties.

[kaosmark2]

40 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

 

You mean the recess he said several times might not happen as there were so many urgent things that needed dealing with but then happened cos they all wanted holidays? and yes I know Starmer has cancelled his.

Yes exactly. 

 

I'm pretty neutral on the summer recess tbh. There's things that are properly urgent and hopefully enough MPs and civil servants are doing enough to keep on top of that, but also, I don't want MPs that are having massive burnout.

 

I also think the blame for the summer recess also partially lies with Sunak - one of the reasons early May is a typical time for a GE is that the wash-up loss happens over Easter, then there's ~8-10 weeks after the election result for the new government to get a bunch of things in motion, get any urgent issues dealt with, then task the civil service with the data collection/reports that are necessary to plan in detail before the end of the summer recess.

 

Theoretically, they could have pushed it back a month, or cut 1-2 weeks off it, but then there's childcare issues with the recess matching alongside the summer holidays, etc etc.

 

I do get how it looks bad, but frankly, Labour did more governing in the 2 weeks after the election than the Tories had done in 18 months prior to that. I'm gonna give them this pass as long as the budget is reasonable.

[steviewevie]

35 minutes ago, kaosmark2 said:

Yes exactly. 

 

I'm pretty neutral on the summer recess tbh. There's things that are properly urgent and hopefully enough MPs and civil servants are doing enough to keep on top of that, but also, I don't want MPs that are having massive burnout.

 

I also think the blame for the summer recess also partially lies with Sunak - one of the reasons early May is a typical time for a GE is that the wash-up loss happens over Easter, then there's ~8-10 weeks after the election result for the new government to get a bunch of things in motion, get any urgent issues dealt with, then task the civil service with the data collection/reports that are necessary to plan in detail before the end of the summer recess.

 

Theoretically, they could have pushed it back a month, or cut 1-2 weeks off it, but then there's childcare issues with the recess matching alongside the summer holidays, etc etc.

 

I do get how it looks bad, but frankly, Labour did more governing in the 2 weeks after the election than the Tories had done in 18 months prior to that. I'm gonna give them this pass as long as the budget is reasonable.

we need to take their hols away along with their free leccy

[Nobody Interesting]

37 minutes ago, kaosmark2 said:

Yes exactly. 

 

I'm pretty neutral on the summer recess tbh. There's things that are properly urgent and hopefully enough MPs and civil servants are doing enough to keep on top of that, but also, I don't want MPs that are having massive burnout.

 

I also think the blame for the summer recess also partially lies with Sunak - one of the reasons early May is a typical time for a GE is that the wash-up loss happens over Easter, then there's ~8-10 weeks after the election result for the new government to get a bunch of things in motion, get any urgent issues dealt with, then task the civil service with the data collection/reports that are necessary to plan in detail before the end of the summer recess.

 

Theoretically, they could have pushed it back a month, or cut 1-2 weeks off it, but then there's childcare issues with the recess matching alongside the summer holidays, etc etc.

 

I do get how it looks bad, but frankly, Labour did more governing in the 2 weeks after the election than the Tories had done in 18 months prior to that. I'm gonna give them this pass as long as the budget is reasonable.

 

The same MP's that will come back for 10 days then break again for conference season...... poor loves.

Imagine if teachers had as long on holiday as MP's 😉

[LJS]

2 hours ago, Spuddhism said:

I can see Reform going the way of the BNP and UKIP by the next election. In the interim, members will get caught on camera expressing race hate, Farage will lose interest, and the party will implode (albeit to be replaced by something similar - they'll just put lipstick on a racist pig and relaunch under a new name). 

Edited August 13 by LJS

[Ryan1984]

2 hours ago, kaosmark2 said:

The summer recess isn't helping Starmer's popularity, but largely, they've done a few of the key very urgent things, the budget will be relevant to political nerds like us, while most people will get on with their lives and just hope to see cost of living improve. An internal Tory leadership contest and them banging on about culture war sh*t will get less attention than what's happening in the US or in the cabinet separately.

Most people seem impressed with how Starmer has dealt with the ‘definitely not racist’ riots but disappointed with the starving kids stuff etc. There’s also the ‘two-tier’ nonsense being peddled but it doesn’t seem like he’s doing too badly for most of the public.

 

I’m sure the majority are pleased just to see a grown-up in charge.

 

 

[kaosmark2]

 

2 hours ago, steviewevie said:

we need to take their hols away along with their free leccy

 

There's plenty of MP benefits I'd be fine with cutting massively. Electricity, alcohol, (cocaine), pensions, right to hold multiple jobs. Holidays aren't one of them.

[kaosmark2]

2 hours ago, Nobody Interesting said:

 

The same MP's that will come back for 10 days then break again for conference season...... poor loves.

Imagine if teachers had as long on holiday as MP's 😉

Conference season is work, even if it's not parliamentary work.

[steviewevie]

17 minutes ago, kaosmark2 said:

 

 

There's plenty of MP benefits I'd be fine with cutting massively. Electricity, alcohol, (cocaine), pensions, right to hold multiple jobs. Holidays aren't one of them.

I think they should be publicly flogged for putting themselves forward to represent us and then actually being elected the f**king c**ts 

[kaosmark2]

51 minutes ago, Ryan1984 said:

Most people seem impressed with how Starmer has dealt with the ‘definitely not racist’ riots but disappointed with the starving kids stuff etc. There’s also the ‘two-tier’ nonsense being peddled but it doesn’t seem like he’s doing too badly for most of the public.

 

I’m sure the majority are pleased just to see a grown-up in charge.

 

 

Isn't the "two tier kier" stuff just a very online thing? I haven't seen that anywhere except amplified around twitter nutjobbery.

 

The "sir kid starver" dates back to when he dropped the pledge to scrap the 2 child benefit ~a year ago, and I think most people that pay attention to politics, understand that a non-manifesto commitment isn't going to be in the King's speech.