UK Politics

[steviewevie]

8 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

 

Same here and same with most people I know so quite how this growth is coming I really do not know - unless the growth is all from businesses increasing profits.

so what you're talking about is people having more money to spend which will drive growth. They're talking about an industrial strategy.

[steviewevie]

more doomster experts and their big dollops of reality

 

report here...too many words for me...

UKICE-UK-EU-Relations-2024.pdf (ukandeu.ac.uk)

[steviewevie]

[Nobody Interesting]

16 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

so what you're talking about is people having more money to spend which will drive growth. They're talking about an industrial strategy.

 

Without people spending money there will be no growth. Businesses will not invest unless they see a return on that and so business needs us to spend for them to invest. If 'we' are not going to spend then why invest?

I get they are talking about industrial strategy but that only works if there is reward for the end product.

I hope the growth comes but I just cannot really see where it will come from unless we all buy stuff again. We shall see, hopefully in a good way but I have serious doubts as do lots of economists.

[steviewevie]

11 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

 

Without people spending money there will be no growth. Businesses will not invest unless they see a return on that and so business needs us to spend for them to invest. If 'we' are not going to spend then why invest?

I get they are talking about industrial strategy but that only works if there is reward for the end product.

I hope the growth comes but I just cannot really see where it will come from unless we all buy stuff again. We shall see, hopefully in a good way but I have serious doubts as do lots of economists.

Liz Truss was right then.

[lazyred]

11 hours ago, LJS said:

I'm not entirely sure that the article says what you claim. It does say...

 

"Yet Starmer and Reeves insist repeatedly that “there will be no return to austerity”. To keep this promise, Labour will almost certainly need to raise taxes by more than stated. Focus not only on what is in the manifesto but what isn’t:"

 

It seems to me that many leftish-leaning Labour supporters are relying on the hope that Labour's manifesto isnt telling the whole truth.

I'm arguing against your line that "Labour has abandoned it's principles". I'm happy to accept that they are not saying their full plans because if they did the Tories would put a price on it and lie about the tax rises.

 

[Nobody Interesting]

35 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Liz Truss was right then.

 

Was she? About what?

She just wanted to give us all money so we spent it - but if we don't actually want to buy anything that policy hits  dead end.

[steviewevie]

8 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

 

Was she? About what?

She just wanted to give us all money so we spent it - but if we don't actually want to buy anything that policy hits  dead end.

Why wouldn't we want to buy anything?

[Nobody Interesting]

4 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Why wouldn't we want to buy anything?

 

OK, 'buy anything extra' which is how this conversation started, neither you nor I nor people I know want to go and buy extra stuff which means producers will not produce more as consumers don't seem to want to consume more.

but why was Truss right?

Edited June 18 by Nobody Interesting

[lazyred]

39 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

 

Without people spending money there will be no growth. Businesses will not invest unless they see a return on that and so business needs us to spend for them to invest. If 'we' are not going to spend then why invest?

I get they are talking about industrial strategy but that only works if there is reward for the end product.

I hope the growth comes but I just cannot really see where it will come from unless we all buy stuff again. We shall see, hopefully in a good way but I have serious doubts as do lots of economists.

What they want is more investment to raise productivity. One of our problems is that the quick fix is to cut public investment and encourage consumer spending.

One of Labour's plans is for the OBR to include the future gains from borrowing for investment. So for example the sure start centres were shown to save public money over 15 years but cutting them was reported as a saving in the Govt budget.

 

[Nobody Interesting]

1 minute ago, lazyred said:

What they want is more investment to raise productivity. One of our problems is that the quick fix is to cut public investment and encourage consumer spending.

One of Labour's plans is for the OBR to include the future gains from borrowing for investment. So for example the sure start centres were shown to save public money over 15 years but cutting them was reported as a saving in the Govt budget.

 

 

Which is great, but high productivity in production needs higher consumerism and if people don't want to buy more then producers don't want to produce more and the other 'benefit' of higher productivity will be to require less people to do the production.

The UK's problem, which is the same as much of the rest of the wealthy world, is people have learned to use less and many seem content to carry that on and so demand has fallen and projections are that it will remain lower. How we combat that while using the existing method of a healthy country (GDP) I have no idea.

[lazyred]

2 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

 

Which is great, but high productivity in production needs higher consumerism and if people don't want to buy more then producers don't want to produce more and the other 'benefit' of higher productivity will be to require less people to do the production.

The UK's problem, which is the same as much of the rest of the wealthy world, is people have learned to use less and many seem content to carry that on and so demand has fallen and projections are that it will remain lower. How we combat that while using the existing method of a healthy country (GDP) I have no idea.

You are right that the unspoken downside is producing the same with less people. France has higher productivity and more unemployment. We use immigration to employ people on low wages to make up for not raising productivity. Our way is worse, over the long term we will decline.

I don't see people using less, most people have loads of crap they don't need. There are billions of people who want our lifestyle. Supplying them without trashing the planet is the bigger  problem.

 

[steviewevie]

17 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

 

OK, 'buy anything extra' which is how this conversation started, neither you nor I nor people I know want to go and buy extra stuff which means producers will not produce more as consumers don't seem to want to consume more.

but why was Truss right?

I thought you were talking about the demand side, giving more people money to buy and invest etc, which I guess what Truss was thinking with cutting taxes. 

The labour strategy is to invest in renewables and green tech industries, and build more houses. They hope both would create more skilled jobs, more wealth, more tax revenue. Not sure about the hoping people buy extra stuff comes into it. Not sure that was what the guardian leader thing was talking about either, it was more that alongside this labour needs to invest in public services and infrastructure.

I wonder if Labour will rip up it's fiscal rules part way through this parliament.

[Nobody Interesting]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

I thought you were talking about the demand side, giving more people money to buy and invest etc, which I guess what Truss was thinking with cutting taxes. 

The labour strategy is to invest in renewables and green tech industries, and build more houses. They hope both would create more skilled jobs, more wealth, more tax revenue. Not sure about the hoping people buy extra stuff comes into it. Not sure that was what the guardian leader thing was talking about either, it was more that alongside this labour needs to invest in public services and infrastructure.

I wonder if Labour will rip up it's fiscal rules part way through this parliament.

 

More houses need people to buy more stuff - and the more houses part, to me, has always been partly folly anyway.

I have no idea where you live but if you have time go for  a walk and look at how many homes are empty, not just those for sale but others just sat empty. Where we live there are more empty homes than new ones and neither are selling - and yet they re due to build more.

I get the Labour policy but creation of wealth still needs that wealth to be spent unless the wealth is all held by the businesses whose profits drive growth.

[Nobody Interesting]

6 minutes ago, lazyred said:

You are right that the unspoken downside is producing the same with less people. France has higher productivity and more unemployment. We use immigration to employ people on low wages to make up for not raising productivity. Our way is worse, over the long term we will decline.

I don't see people using less, most people have loads of crap they don't need. There are billions of people who want our lifestyle. Supplying them without trashing the planet is the bigger  problem.

 

 

and until the wealthy world starts to cut back on producing crap and trying to have more and more then those billions will want more as they try to mirror our lives - something I think is bad for them and the planet.

If anything we need to mirror the lives of those who manage and are happy with far less but as that will wreck economies (using the GDP model) then it will never happen.

[steviewevie]

8 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

 

More houses need people to buy more stuff - and the more houses part, to me, has always been partly folly anyway.

I have no idea where you live but if you have time go for  a walk and look at how many homes are empty, not just those for sale but others just sat empty. Where we live there are more empty homes than new ones and neither are selling - and yet they re due to build more.

I get the Labour policy but creation of wealth still needs that wealth to be spent unless the wealth is all held by the businesses whose profits drive growth.

we obviously have a lack of decent housing. 

And people who buy houses buy stuff to put in those houses.

Round my way don't see many empty homes, do see quite a few empty building that used to contain businesses, and they eventually go and flats and houses get built. But the supply can't keep up with the demand at moment.

I don't really understand your point that people not wanting to buy things is the actual problem.

[Nobody Interesting]

3 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

we obviously have a lack of decent housing. 

And people who buy houses buy stuff to put in those houses.

Round my way don't see many empty homes, do see quite a few empty building that used to contain businesses, and they eventually go and flats and houses get built. But the supply can't keep up with the demand at moment.

I don't really understand your point that people not wanting to buy things is the actual problem.

 

Consumer spending accounts for around 60% of GDP - so if consumers don't spend more and buy more then GDP falls/suffers and spending plans of governments cannot be implemented.
https://www.ey.com/en_uk/consumer-products-retail/changing-consumption-will-reshape-business-priorities

There are enough homes already in the UK to house everyone that needs one - the government themselves did a survey and this is what it showed, I guess it is on the ONS site somewhere.
Homes are like cars, to a lesser extent, we 'need' to build more but there are millions of cars sat on lots unsold all over the UK and we are told we need to build more.

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

 

Consumer spending accounts for around 60% of GDP - so if consumers don't spend more and buy more then GDP falls/suffers and spending plans of governments cannot be implemented.
https://www.ey.com/en_uk/consumer-products-retail/changing-consumption-will-reshape-business-priorities

There are enough homes already in the UK to house everyone that needs one - the government themselves did a survey and this is what it showed, I guess it is on the ONS site somewhere.
Homes are like cars, to a lesser extent, we 'need' to build more but there are millions of cars sat on lots unsold all over the UK and we are told we need to build more.

ok, so if want to get consumers spending they need more money in their pockets?

[Nobody Interesting]

19 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

ok, so if want to get consumers spending they need more money in their pockets?

 

back to the start we go LOL

 

If people don't want or feel the need to go and buy stuff (which the start of this showed you, I and people I know do not want to or feel the need to then extra money in the pocket will not make us.

[steviewevie]

15 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

 

back to the start we go LOL

 

If people don't want or feel the need to go and buy stuff (which the start of this showed you, I and people I know do not want to or feel the need to then extra money in the pocket will not make us.

maybe need a bigger dataset than you and people you know.

 

[steviewevie]

I reckon with these massive poll leads for Labour that hardly anyone will actually vote for them and we'll end up with a Tory/Reform coalition.

[Nobody Interesting]

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

maybe need a bigger dataset than you and people you know.

 

OK

Will this do then?
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/articles/costoflivinginsights/spending

 

If not there are plenty of other studies to show people are buying less and have not started buying more again after they 'feel better off'

 

and some bank data using their customers spending so again a large group:
https://www.natwestgroup.com/news-and-insights/news-room/press-releases/economic-analysis/2024/jun/consumers-prioritise-enjoyment-spending-but-are-looking-to-spend.html

Edited June 18 by Nobody Interesting

[steviewevie]

12 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

OK

Will this do then?
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/articles/costoflivinginsights/spending

 

If not there are plenty of other studies to show people are buying less and have not started buying more again after they 'feel better off'

they are spending less because of cost of living increases?

[steviewevie]

anyway, are you suggesting because people don't want to buy things then we can't grow the economy no matter what?

[Nobody Interesting]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

they are spending less because of cost of living increases?

 

People are spending less since the pandemic and then the COL increases - which are still there just going up less quickly.

Details are in there and the Nat West spending report too.

I could give you lots more from the USA - cos our economy historically follows where theirs leads - but decided you would reject it as it was from the US. It shows that the trends are for people to spend less even though they are becoming better off again. Their trends are already some of what is effecting  the UK with home decorating taking a back seat