UK Politics

[lazyred]

The Guardian comment on that More in Common poll highlights again how many seats could go either way.

 

"Overall, there are 113 seats with a majority less than 5%, where a last minute swing could change the results. There are 52 seats in a statistical tie with the projected winner less than 2 percentage points ahead of their closest rival – these seats are too close to call. These include seven seats where members of the cabinet, including potential Leadership contender Penny Mordaunt, are defending their seats and also seats such as Bristol Central where shadow culture secretary Thangam Debbonaire faces a tight battle against Greens’ co-leader Carla Denyer …

 

The model also finds 99 marginal Conservative seats where control of the seat is decided by less than 5 percentage points. If the Tories were to win all of these marginal seats, the seat totals would sit at 177 for the Conservatives, 393 for Labour and 41 for the Liberal Democrats. If undecided voters don’t break for the Conservatives in the last day of the campaign, they could be left with as few as 78 seats."

[mattiloy]

3 minutes ago, lazyred said:

Spot on. Labour need a record swing to get a majority of 1. The Tory vote has collapsed because people aren't scared of Labour.

Yes Lazyblue. The polls suddenly shifting immediately after partygate, boris resigning and truss and never recovering is just a coincidence.

[lazyred]

Just now, mattiloy said:

Yes Lazyblue. The polls suddenly shifting immediately after partygate, boris resigning and truss and never recovering is just a coincidence.

And yet a poll was posted here the other day showing Boris would still beat Corbyn.

[mattiloy]

8 minutes ago, lazyred said:

And yet a poll was posted here the other day showing Boris would still beat Corbyn.

I’d imagine basically all of that reform vote would swing to boris, so he’d probs beat Starmer too.

[steviewevie]

Corbyn was lucky in 2017 with May and her social care dementia tax and subsequent uturn, her sh*t response to Grenfell and all round sh*t maybot campaigning thing...but at same time it wasn't all luck.

etc.

[steviewevie]

4 minutes ago, mattiloy said:

I’d imagine basically all of that reform vote would swing to boris, so he’d probs beat Starmer too.

probs wouldn't

[lazyred]

7 minutes ago, mattiloy said:

I’d imagine basically all of that reform vote would swing to boris, so he’d probs beat Starmer too.

Maybe he would but Starmer can attract ex Tory centrist voters, Corbyn repels them.

Starmer is still mistrusted because he identified with Corbyn but he's neutralised some of the negatives. Look at the sh*t the Tories are throwing on tax, defence, immigration, reversing brexit etc. None if it is sticking (I hope) because Labour have targeted these issues for change.

[steviewevie]

9 minutes ago, lazyred said:

Maybe he would but Starmer can attract ex Tory centrist voters, Corbyn repels them.

Starmer is still mistrusted because he identified with Corbyn but he's neutralised some of the negatives. Look at the sh*t the Tories are throwing on tax, defence, immigration, reversing brexit etc. None if it is sticking (I hope) because Labour have targeted these issues for change.

I reckon Johnson wouldn't have beaten Starmer in 2019, not sure about now. Johnson still damaged by partygate.

[steviewevie]

also the big part of appeal of Reform against Tories is the fact that brexit is not giving them what they want...lower migration etc. and immigration went right up under Johnson because despite his brexit credentials he's pretty liberal on all that.

[steviewevie]

 

[lost]

9 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

also the big part of appeal of Reform against Tories is the fact that brexit is not giving them what they want...lower migration etc. and immigration went right up under Johnson because despite his brexit credentials he's pretty liberal on all that.

 

Agreed the "Singapore on Thames" liberal global village brexit that the Tories wanted was never the vision of the people who voted for Brexit. They were always going to get found out there and part of the reason they are about to get wiped out by both remainers and Brexiteers.

[steviewevie]

6 minutes ago, lost said:

 

Agreed the "Singapore on Thames" liberal global village brexit that the Tories wanted was never the vision of the people who voted for Brexit. They were always going to get found out there and part of the reason they are about to get wiped out by both remainers and Brexiteers.

and this actually a divide in the people vying over future direction of tories..liberal small state version like that of Liz Truss...and the NatCon version of Braverman and co. Sunak tried and failed to appeal to both.

[steviewevie]

Predictions then...

Labour majority size?

Main opposition party..Tories or Lib Dem?

Green or Labour in Bristol Central?

Farage in Clacton?

Corbyn in N Islington?

Galloway in Rochdale?

Shaheen in Chingford?

Who has most seats, Green or Reform?

[steviewevie]

Just now, steviewevie said:

Predictions then...

Labour majority size?

Main opposition party..Tories or Lib Dem?

Green or Labour in Bristol Central?

Farage in Clacton?

Corbyn in N Islington?

Galloway in Rochdale?

Shaheen in Chingford?

Who has most seats, Green or Reform?

Mine (subject to change).

 

Labour majority size - 150

Main opposition party..Tories or Lib Dem - Tories

Green or Labour in Bristol Central - Green

Farage in Clacton - Yes

Corbyn in N Islington - Yes

Galloway in Rochdale - Yes

Shaheen in Chingford - No

Who has most seats, Green or Reform - Reform

[Kurosagi]

Labour majority size - 187

Main opposition party..Tories or Lib Dem - Tories

Green or Labour in Bristol Central - Green

Farage in Clacton - Yes

Corbyn in N Islington - No

Galloway in Rochdale - No

Shaheen in Chingford - No

Who has most seats, Green or Reform - Same

[mattiloy]

38 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Predictions then...

Labour majority size?

Main opposition party..Tories or Lib Dem?

Green or Labour in Bristol Central?

Farage in Clacton?

Corbyn in N Islington?

Galloway in Rochdale?

Shaheen in Chingford?

Who has most seats, Green or Reform?

 

 

Hard to call on all.

 

Even though the main result is a foregone conclusion, the sideshow should be good entertainment. Even besides this list there are plenty more potential shocks. Its one election I’d be tempted to stay up and watch. But with it being +1 hour here and having small kids, I probably wont.

[mattiloy]

My only prediction is Labour vote share a couple of percentage lower than polling. So maybe 36/37%

[Kurosagi]

I can't decide if people will stay at home or are determined to come out and give the tories a kicking. Could still be both I suppose.

 

Freedman is struggling with the size of the number of tory seats; never seen anything like it for a major party the day before a GE:

 

"There are, of course, big caveats. While every poll, and every other indicator we have, tells us there will be a big Labour majority, the scale of it, and what that means for the seat totals, is up in the air. I would not be shocked at any number of Tory seats between 30 and 200. There are so many close seats that we just won’t know till the exit poll."

[steviewevie]

I won't be staying up...got to get up and drive to Wales on Friday. 

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, Kurosagi said:

I can't decide if people will stay at home or are determined to come out and give the tories a kicking. Could still be both I suppose.

 

Freedman is struggling with the size of the number of tory seats; never seen anything like it for a major party the day before a GE:

 

"There are, of course, big caveats. While every poll, and every other indicator we have, tells us there will be a big Labour majority, the scale of it, and what that means for the seat totals, is up in the air. I would not be shocked at any number of Tory seats between 30 and 200. There are so many close seats that we just won’t know till the exit poll."

probably will come down to the weather.

[Kurosagi]

2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

I won't be staying up...got to get up and drive to Wales on Friday. 

 

Lightweight. Staggeringly bad planning on your part...

[steviewevie]

Just now, Kurosagi said:

 

Lightweight. Staggeringly bad planning on your part...

Yes I know. My kid's fault actually.

I probably won't sleep well...but after exit poll the action won't start for for another 4 hours or so.

[Kurosagi]

The pre match atmos will be the best though, especially if the exit poll is brutal for the tories.

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, Kurosagi said:

The pre match atmos will be the best though, especially if the exit poll is brutal for the tories.

yes...but what if it isn't...?!? What if a lot closer than expected? I can't go to bed then.

[steviewevie]

as a peace treaty to the corbynites I actually hope he wins in N Islington. I don't think he reacted as he should have to that ECHR report, a bit of contrition would have gone a long way...but at same time I'm  uncomfortable with him being kicked out of Labour, and by all accounts he has been a decent and popular MP.

Farage and Galloway can both f**k off though.