UK Politics

[lazyred]

47 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Quick results prediction?

 

I'm going Lab: 400

Con: 135

LD:65

REF: 3

Green: 2

SNP:24

OTH: 12 (Including corbyn)

 

Its hard to come up with numbers that give Labour the 200+ majority predicted by the MRP polls. I can't bring myself to believe it. Anyway this is a Labour majority of 151 by my arithmetic. This is still 235 Con losses and 20 SNP losses with Labour gaining 200.

 

Lab 400

Con 132

LD 61

Ref 2

Green 4

SNP 28

Oth 22 - includes NI

 

[lazyred]

15 minutes ago, LJS said:

Never been much of a fan of the "Red Tory" thing myself either - and its not a phrase I can ever remember using  - although I have certainly been critical of the party & its timidity on and off for about 30 years. 

However if the "red Tory" tag were ever to fit, it is now. The Labour party is now a party that will do anything (or nothing) to win, and seems much more intent on persuading Tory voters to change than actually changing the Country for the better.

I cannot remember a less ambitious prospectus for government from any party in the 45 years I have been voting. 

I had my reservation about New Labour in 1997 but stayed up all night watching the results, rejoicing in every Tory defeat & moderately optimistic that the new Government would be radically different to that which we had endured for 18 years.
Tonight, I shall stay up again & raise a glass every time the Tories lose a seat. The best I can say for the incoming government is that they can't possibly be worse than what we have endured for the past 14 years. 

Excited? Sorry. NO.

 

 

I agree with a lot of that. I'm more relieved  than excited but looking forward to seeing Tories lose their seats. I can't condemn Labour for wanting to persuade Tory voters to change because that's the only way they can win. They may have gone too far but perceptions of the party after Corbyn were very poor. I still think Labour will do more of what I want in office.

 

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, lazyred said:

I agree with a lot of that. I'm more relieved  than excited but looking forward to seeing Tories lose their seats. I can't condemn Labour for wanting to persuade Tory voters to change because that's the only way they can win. They may have gone too far but perceptions of the party after Corbyn were very poor. I still think Labour will do more of what I want in office.

 

They have limited what they can do with some of their promises to not raise the main taxes, but just have to see how things go with their house building and wealth fund and GB Energy...all of which might be real good but that people won't really notice in their day to day lives before the next election. If they want to win the next election they will probably need to chuck more money at everything, and unless the economy starts growing rapidly that will mean more tax from somewhere or change fiscal rules so can borrow more or a bit of both.

[steviewevie]

My daughter's first general election where she can vote today and she's so enthusiastic she's still in bed.

[LJS]

27 minutes ago, lazyred said:

I agree with a lot of that. I'm more relieved  than excited but looking forward to seeing Tories lose their seats. I can't condemn Labour for wanting to persuade Tory voters to change because that's the only way they can win. They may have gone too far but perceptions of the party after Corbyn were very poor. I still think Labour will do more of what I want in office.

 

I get that & its easy for those of us in Scotland (where the Tories have not won more than 30% of the vote for 40 years) to forget that Labour has to win votes in England (where the Tories have not polled less than 30%  for over 100 years.
I have always accepted that Labour has to moderate some of its policies to win in England. I just happen to believe they have gone way too far under Starmer.

[steviewevie]

[Neil]

7 hours ago, steviewevie said:

 

but Carla Denyer seems pretty sharp 

she's no Caroline Lucas. 

[Neil]

3 hours ago, LJS said:

I have always accepted that Labour has to moderate some of its policies to win in England. I just happen to believe they have gone way too far under Starmer.

i get what you mean, but hes been trying to not hand the win to the tories. and has to keep his plans within  the reality of this very f**ked up country.

[Alvoram]

3 hours ago, steviewevie said:

My daughter's first general election where she can vote today and she's so enthusiastic she's still in bed.

My Son and Daughter's first GE today... Nice little family walk to the polling station. 

Bit of a proud moment to be honest, I couldn't have given two shits at their age, "won't make a difference anyway!!!" But these two care so passionately about removing the scum and blocking the fascists that I was genuinely a little emotional. 

[Alvoram]

Also... Loving the confidence in this thread with regards to Reform...

I do not share it though... This is reminding me so much of Brexit, where up here in the Midlands / North, at the 11th hour, Farage suddenly seems to have ALL of the support... I'm absolutely terrified that they will win more seats than people expect. 😕

[steviewevie]

5.5 hours until our heads implode with exit poll saying Tories are the largest party.

[philipsteak]

1 hour ago, Alvoram said:

Also... Loving the confidence in this thread with regards to Reform...

I do not share it though... This is reminding me so much of Brexit, where up here in the Midlands / North, at the 11th hour, Farage suddenly seems to have ALL of the support... I'm absolutely terrified that they will win more seats than people expect. 😕

 

Yeah, I can see them getting a few. At best, even if they don't get seats they'll get a decent share of the total vote.

[Kurosagi]

I'll be making use of this tonight:

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19rlpmG_zNEXv9SX0XF3dVr3xsjMM-ghTVbjjX2j4s94/edit?pli=1&gid=1747435381#gid=1747435381

 

It's got all seats listed plus comments about notable candidates, but crucially gives the estimated time of declaration.

[kaosmark2]

Interestingly, a wealthy friend of mine who moves in Tory circles, is hearing from a lot of people he knows who normally vote Tory, that while 2 weeks ago they were saying "dunno, but I'm not voting tory this time" or "sure, Starmer will do, the Tories have f**ked up too much", they're now saying "I don't want Labour to have a huge majority" implying that the "don't give Starmer a supermajority" line has actually cut through a bit.

 

I only have 2nd hand connections to Tory voters, and these are people who had been swinging to Labour, but that's interesting.

[steviewevie]

21 minutes ago, Kurosagi said:

I'll be making use of this tonight:

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19rlpmG_zNEXv9SX0XF3dVr3xsjMM-ghTVbjjX2j4s94/edit?pli=1&gid=1747435381#gid=1747435381

 

It's got all seats listed plus comments about notable candidates, but crucially gives the estimated time of declaration.

wow.

 

[steviewevie]

19 minutes ago, kaosmark2 said:

Interestingly, a wealthy friend of mine who moves in Tory circles, is hearing from a lot of people he knows who normally vote Tory, that while 2 weeks ago they were saying "dunno, but I'm not voting tory this time" or "sure, Starmer will do, the Tories have f**ked up too much", they're now saying "I don't want Labour to have a huge majority" implying that the "don't give Starmer a supermajority" line has actually cut through a bit.

 

I only have 2nd hand connections to Tory voters, and these are people who had been swinging to Labour, but that's interesting.

yeah, I think Tories were getting feedback themselves which is why they kept repeating it endlessly.

[Kurosagi]

Another bloke has done this one:

 

https://jonskeet.uk/election2024

 

Which has lots of live updating tables up top before all the seats which could be fun. The seats link to Freedman's epic endeavor of writing a paragraph about every single seat with a prediction, an amazing achievement. Gotta love political nerds.

 

Right, off to vote now and then distractions for the next five hours...see you all on the other side.

[steviewevie]

30 minutes ago, kaosmark2 said:

Interestingly, a wealthy friend of mine who moves in Tory circles, is hearing from a lot of people he knows who normally vote Tory, that while 2 weeks ago they were saying "dunno, but I'm not voting tory this time" or "sure, Starmer will do, the Tories have f**ked up too much", they're now saying "I don't want Labour to have a huge majority" implying that the "don't give Starmer a supermajority" line has actually cut through a bit.

 

I only have 2nd hand connections to Tory voters, and these are people who had been swinging to Labour, but that's interesting.

you've given me THE FEAR

[Punksnotdead]

41 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

5.5 hours until our heads implode with exit poll saying Tories are the largest party.

Tories have drifted from 50/1 to 80/1 since yesterday to win the most seats. 

 

Considered sticking a fiver on just to soften the blow, but pretty sure that would be a waste of £5.

[Guest]

Three redundances this week where I work, due to the 20% VAT on school fees. Good people as well.

[steviewevie]

 

[Punksnotdead]

3 minutes ago, Punksnotdead said:

Tories have drifted from 50/1 to 80/1 since yesterday to win the most seats. 

 

Considered sticking a fiver on just to soften the blow, but pretty sure that would be a waste of £5.

Just for context - The Tories were 7/2 when they won the 'shock' election in 1992 (I know this because I bet on them) - so the bookies think a Tory victory today is more than 20 times more unlikely. 

[LJS]

5 minutes ago, Ommadawn said:

Three redundances this week where I work, due to the 20% VAT on school fees. Good people as well.

A bit of context would be helpful. It's hard to imagine why a tax promised by a party who hasn't been elected yet & the effects of which are not really known would lead to redundancies.

Sounds like an excuse to me.

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, Punksnotdead said:

Just for context - The Tories were 7/2 when they won the 'shock' election in 1992 (I know this because I bet on them) - so the bookies think a Tory victory today is more than 20 times more unlikely. 

 

YES BUT WHAT IF THEY'VE ALL GOT IT WRONG?!

[steviewevie]

Angela has THE FEAR too.