International Politics

[steviewevie]

What is clear is that aftermath of Oct 7th attack has been a disaster for Hamas, a disaster for the people of Gaza, a disaster for Hezbollah, and a disaster for Iran. Israel seem to be even stronger now, but even more disliked.

[kaosmark2]

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

What is clear is that aftermath of Oct 7th attack has been a disaster for Hamas, a disaster for the people of Gaza, a disaster for Hezbollah, and a disaster for Iran. Israel seem to be even stronger now, but even more disliked.

I don't think it has been a disaster for Hamas. Hamas don't care about the people of Gaza, and they wanted to provoke Israel into indiscriminate violence that would eencourage a new generation of recruits for Hamas. In many ways it's been an absolute success for them.

[steviewevie]

16 minutes ago, kaosmark2 said:

I don't think it has been a disaster for Hamas. Hamas don't care about the people of Gaza, and they wanted to provoke Israel into indiscriminate violence that would eencourage a new generation of recruits for Hamas. In many ways it's been an absolute success for them.

well if you look at in those terms...maybe so. But they've lost a lot of people, lost leaders, lost military hardware, lost support, lost control of Gaza.

[steviewevie]

 

[kaosmark2]

47 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

well if you look at in those terms...maybe so. But they've lost a lot of people, lost leaders, lost military hardware, lost support, lost control of Gaza.

Well because of these reasons - particularly the death of several leaders - I do think Hezbollah has been severely damaged. But Hamas have never worried about deaths on their "side", as long as they can provoke Israel into provoking a new generation of recruits. Add in damaging Israel's international relations (eg the Irish embassy thing), and I think a lot of their leaders will be pretty satisfied with the trade.

 

Hamas aren't benevolent defenders of the people of Gaza - they're a terrorist group whose stated aim is the destruction of Israel. Given decreased sympathy for Israel internationally and another generation of recruits directly, I think they've gained a lot of what they wanted to.

[steviewevie]

39 minutes ago, kaosmark2 said:

Well because of these reasons - particularly the death of several leaders - I do think Hezbollah has been severely damaged. But Hamas have never worried about deaths on their "side", as long as they can provoke Israel into provoking a new generation of recruits. Add in damaging Israel's international relations (eg the Irish embassy thing), and I think a lot of their leaders will be pretty satisfied with the trade.

 

Hamas aren't benevolent defenders of the people of Gaza - they're a terrorist group whose stated aim is the destruction of Israel. Given decreased sympathy for Israel internationally and another generation of recruits directly, I think they've gained a lot of what they wanted to.

ok...well...probably. I get they're an idea...like Al Qaida or ISIS that cannot be completely destroyed, but like both of those they can be weakened so much that they are ineffective. In the unlikely chance that there is Palestinian self rule after this current conflict then maybe they could be involved, but they would have to do deals with Fatah in some power sharing thing which may be beyond them.

Anyway, I think any chance of a two state solution is probably gone for at least another generation, and Israel will probably have their military in Gaza for the foreseeable....any deal with Hamas involved in running things just won't be acceptable to them. 

[GhostOfMaurice]

6 hours ago, mattiloy said:

 

’These people’ - as far as I can tell the civilian population of gaza has not done much in the way of persecuting and yet, many of them are in fact, now quite literally without eyes, and that’s if they’re lucky.

 

Pretty clear that Israel is Rebecca Vardy. In the wrong and is gonna end up on the hook for a lot of dough in reparations after the eventual trials in The Hague.

 

It must be nice to see the world through your eyes. Israel are the baddies. Everyone else are the goodies. Let's get em! Too many marvel films for you, I think.

[steviewevie]

Ottoman empire maybe wasn't so bad.

[Neil]

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

Ottoman empire maybe wasn't so bad.

the conflicts kicked off then!

[mattiloy]

1 hour ago, GhostOfMaurice said:

 

It must be nice to see the world through your eyes. Israel are the baddies. Everyone else are the goodies. Let's get em! Too many marvel films for you, I think.

 

Its not nice. Because I see it for what it is- the completely unjustified massacre of innocents on a daily basis for over a year. And actually I find that rather unpleasant.

[steviewevie]

10 hours ago, Neil said:

the conflicts kicked off then!

Ottoman empire had been there for hundreds of years and kept all those different groups in that area in check...it was WW1 and siding with the Germans that blew it. This is ignoring the odd genocide or two carried out by them.

After the Ottomans it was the British and French that kept it in check, then they got out and it's all been a big mess ever since.

Bring back empires I say.

[steviewevie]

Actually maybe there will be an even wider Israeli empire then the whole region can enjoy western woke nonsense like secular liberal democracy and womens/LGBTQ rights etc.

[lazyred]

14 hours ago, mattiloy said:

 

Its not nice. Because I see it for what it is- the completely unjustified massacre of innocents on a daily basis for over a year. And actually I find that rather unpleasant.

Here we go again. Gazan civilians have paid a heavy price but there are two sides to this. 1100 people murdered on Oct 7. More raped and injured. 251 people abducted, 98 still unaccounted for, 34 of those believed to be dead. The Hamas fighters and hostages embedded within and underneath hospitals, schools and apartment blocks. Fuel and aid hijacked and diverted to the fighters.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[steviewevie]

Trump says wants sorted before he comes into office...so...

 

[steviewevie]

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

Trump says wants sorted before he comes into office...so...

 

this denied...he was partying hard in Syria apparently.

[mattiloy]

4 hours ago, lazyred said:

Here we go again. Gazan civilians have paid a heavy price but there are two sides to this. 1100 people murdered on Oct 7. More raped and injured. 251 people abducted, 98 still unaccounted for, 34 of those believed to be dead. The Hamas fighters and hostages embedded within and underneath hospitals, schools and apartment blocks. Fuel and aid hijacked and diverted to the fighters.

 

 

 

 

 

 

History will regard this for what it is- genocide. And you’ll probably be telling whichever poor sod has the displeasure to have to listen to your blitherings that you’d been calling it out all along.

[doogie]

1 hour ago, mattiloy said:

History will regard this for what it is- genocide.

 

That's far from certain.

 

The civilian death rate has actually been a lot lower than what would be typical in this kind of urban warfare where combatants are so deeply entrenched within civilian infrastructure in such a small area.

 

So far all the ICJ have said is that it's plausible that Palestinians have rights that need to be protected.  Contrary to what a lot of the media reported, the ICJ made no indication as to whether there's any prospect of a ruling of genocide.  It will take them years to reach any kind of judgement because it's not nearly as straightforward as some people seem to think.

 

South Africa's motives for bringing the case in the first place looked highly dubious.  It looked to me like a desperate attempt to boost the ANC's popularity shortly before an election, but it didn't work because they lost their majority anyway.

[steviewevie]

5 minutes ago, doogie said:

 

That's far from certain.

 

The civilian death rate has actually been a lot lower than what would be typical in this kind of urban warfare where combatants are so deeply entrenched within civilian infrastructure in such a small area.

 

So far all the ICJ have said is that it's plausible that Palestinians have rights that need to be protected.  Contrary to what a lot of the media reported, the ICJ made no indication as to whether there's any prospect of a ruling of genocide.  It will take them years to reach any kind of judgement because it's not nearly as straightforward as some people seem to think.

 

South Africa's motives for bringing the case in the first place looked highly dubious.  It looked to me like a desperate attempt to boost the ANC's popularity shortly before an election, but it didn't work because they lost their majority anyway.

you have to prove intent...so yes can argue that they intend to kill Hamas and there just so happens to be a bunch of civilians there too but sh*t happens...but it's stuff that some in Israeli govt have said...and then there's telling people to move to an area for sanctuary and they then bomb it...and then there's limiting what aid can get in. All adds up.