International Politics

[lazyred]

2 hours ago, steviewevie said:

I thought an invasion of Rafah was a red line for Biden?

 

Yeah they seemed to be saying don't do it. Tim Marshall seems a reliable journalist so we'll see. Not sure what happens if people don't move out to the tent city.

[steviewevie]

10 minutes ago, lazyred said:

 

Yeah they seemed to be saying don't do it. Tim Marshall seems a reliable journalist so we'll see. Not sure what happens if people don't move out to the tent city.

 

Yeah, how does it work (haven't read that link btw)? IDF will move people there? Or just ask people to move? They really expect Hamas top brass to remain, even if they're there?

Not sure about home affairs, but Biden has been really quite sh*t and weak with international affairs. Would Trump be any worse? not that sure at this point. 

[steviewevie]

 

[steviewevie]

 

[steviewevie]

quite sweet that US colleges are having their own middle east conflict....something to distract us from the real thing.

[steviewevie]

 

Edited May 4 by steviewevie

[steviewevie]

Hopes rise for a ceasefire deal, and then they fall again...sticking point always is Hamas want Israel out of Gaza, Israel want Hamas gone..and on it goes forever and ever,

[Neil]

14 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Hopes rise for a ceasefire deal, and then they fall again...sticking point always is Hamas want Israel out of Gaza, Israel want Hamas gone..and on it goes forever and ever,

a deal is there to be done, but the Palestinians won't do one for all of the time that it'll be an acceptance of them losing what they once had, and Israel is never giving up what its got, so things are stuck, it would help if the Palestinians didn't insist on throwing bombs over the fence. 

[steviewevie]

46 minutes ago, Neil said:

a deal is there to be done, but the Palestinians won't do one for all of the time that it'll be an acceptance of them losing what they once had, and Israel is never giving up what its got, so things are stuck, it would help if the Palestinians didn't insist on throwing bombs over the fence. 

 

That's more a 2 state deal, nowhere near that...just a ceasefire or pause deal at moment. Hamas want to keep control, basically to go back how it was on Oct 6th, Israel want them gone, but the Israeli public just want the hostages back and Netanyahu to go.

[lazyred]

58 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

 

That's more a 2 state deal, nowhere near that...just a ceasefire or pause deal at moment. Hamas want to keep control, basically to go back how it was on Oct 6th, Israel want them gone, but the Israeli public just want the hostages back and Netanyahu to go.

I thought Hamas wanted a permanent ceasefire otherwise Isreal will finish them off once the hostages are returned. Even if that happened surely Hamas are finished in Gaza? I presume US and Europe will be helping pay to rebuild Gaza and they'll want the Palestinian Authority in charge.

[steviewevie]

1 hour ago, lazyred said:

I thought Hamas wanted a permanent ceasefire otherwise Isreal will finish them off once the hostages are returned. Even if that happened surely Hamas are finished in Gaza? I presume US and Europe will be helping pay to rebuild Gaza and they'll want the Palestinian Authority in charge.

 

Yes, Hamas want permanent ceasefire, Israel only offering temporary pause. Hard to see how this ends, but both sides will have to give in, there won't be any winners. I assume Hamas were hoping this would ignite a wider conflict with Hezbollah and/or Iran getting involved...and it nearly succeeded...but in the end has just meant the destruction of Gaza and so many lives. Meanwhile Netanyahu is just concerned about his own political future and has a govt full of extremist maniacs. It is all so tragic. Could hurt Biden in upcoming election too, significant Arab American population in some of the key states, and also a lot of the Democrat base may just stay home on election day. The US-Israel relationship needs to change.

[steviewevie]

 

[Neil]

10 hours ago, lazyred said:

I thought Hamas wanted a permanent ceasefire otherwise Isreal will finish them off once the hostages are returned. Even if that happened surely Hamas are finished in Gaza? I presume US and Europe will be helping pay to rebuild Gaza and they'll want the Palestinian Authority in charge.

rebuilding will be a difficult process cos Israel limits building materials cos they get used for tunnels and rockets, etc.

[steviewevie]

Looks like something happening...Israel asking people in Rafah to evacuate to some other location. Part of negotiations tactic, or they're going in, even if partially? The latter I reckon.

[steviewevie]

...and reports yesterday that Hamas bombed Israeli side of crossing where aid was coming in, so now that border has been closed. Does Hamas actually care about it's own people?

[Nobody Interesting]

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

...and reports yesterday that Hamas bombed Israeli side of crossing where aid was coming in, so now that border has been closed. Does Hamas actually care about it's own people?

 

Hamas does not care about the normal people in Gaza.

Israel does not really care about the normal people in Gaza.

As always in war, the normal people - those least able to fend for themselves - suffer and are forgotten.

War is sh*t

[gherkin8r]

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

...and reports yesterday that Hamas bombed Israeli side of crossing where aid was coming in, so now that border has been closed. Does Hamas actually care about it's own people?

Of course Hamas doesn't care about it's own people. I'd have thought that would have been very obvious from a very long time ago. 

[steviewevie]

An invasion of Rafah won't destroy Hamas..do they really think they have not been planning for this? And it will make it harder to ever get any hostages back alive, and could risk further escalation in the region...which I'm guessing those in Israeli government as well as Hamas may actually want.

[lazyred]

Last week US and UK were describing the proposed ceasefire in terms of Isreal making concessions. Cameron said Isreal had made a generous offer. This lets them blame Hamas for any breakdown in talks and Isreali move into Rafah.

[steviewevie]

Well, it's over to Biden. Red line being crossed, what he going to do?

[steviewevie]

 

[zahidf]

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

 

Israel don't want to accept. The monster netyenyahu really want to kills more innocent people.

[steviewevie]

23 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Israel don't want to accept. The monster netyenyahu really want to kills more innocent people.

 

A lot will be down to Biden and Netanuahu's right wing partners in govt.

[steviewevie]

 

[lazyred]

1 hour ago, zahidf said:

Israel don't want to accept. The monster netyenyahu really want to kills more innocent people.

We dont know what the terms are