International Politics

[Neil]

14 hours ago, steviewevie said:

Does Hamas actually care about it's own people?

no, they're just an asset to be used.

if Hamas cared they wouldn't have done oct 7th, cos every part of the Israeli response was predictable.

[steviewevie]

seen suggestions that all this final bit of Rafah stuff is performative before Israel capitulates under pressure from US and Saudi Arabia and agrees to a deal.

[steviewevie]

From this guy...Ori Goldberg...hope he's right.

 

1/ I have seen the Israeli military and political machine falter before, on the verge of being forced to end past wars. I believe this is what is happening now. Israel is putting on a show meant mostly for domestic consumption. ---> 

2/ Netanyahu and his cronies and accessories, particularly those with military experience (Gantz and Eisenkot), want to tell the Israeli Jewish public (that overwhelmingly supports the "war") that Israel has "operated" in Rafah. There is nowhere else to go in the Gaza strip. ---> 

3/ Israel can thus claim it has "exhausted" all military options before it capitualtes to the pressure applied by the US, Saudi Arabia and just about everyone else. I don't think conspiracy is afoot to occupy Gaza. The religious right is interested but no one else is. ---> 

4/ I don't think Israel is interested in slaughtering as many Palestinians as possible. I think, and this shames me deeply, that Israel sheds Palestinian blood with no thought at all. Palestinians have been completely dehumanized by Israelis. We simply don't care. ---> 

5/ And so I believe what we are seeing in Rafah is a last attempt at appearing competent and full of conviction, defying the world to enhance Israeli security. That is, of course, a sham. I base my assessment also on the minimal resistance Israel has encountered in Rafah. ---> 

6/ Hamas has no reason to fight, having made its strategic decision. Hamas has opted for a deal. It controls the narrative, forcing Israel to "react". Hamas has nothing to gain from fighting so it doesn't fight. No fixation on the murder of Jews; just common sense. ---> 

7/ In its own mind, Israel cannot appear "weak", as acceptance of a deal has been spun as "surrendering" here by the PM and his government. Had Israel initiated a deal earlier it may have been less painful now. So Israel will buck and shudder but awareness is seeping in. ---> 

8/ All sorts of things suddenly make the Israeli headlines now, most prominently issues of personal appointments and official reviews of the war. This is to be expected when the end is in sight. Remember also that Israel will be celebrating Independence Day next Tuesday. ---> 

9/ Netanyahu wants to appear valiant and focused. Because he is who he is, because Israel is what it is, he is procrastinating, bobbing and weaving. He knows it shows. He knows his pants are on fire. There is plenty of damage to do and blood to shed, but the war is lost. 

[steviewevie]

c**t

[steviewevie]

 

[Neil]

4 hours ago, steviewevie said:

 

china should look at what benefits, 50 years of USA support have brought Israel and the USA?

[steviewevie]

Biden now publicly saying will not supply weapons to Israel if they do this Rafah invasion. He needs to act tough for the sake of the region, but also for his own electoral chances. 

[Neil]

59 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Biden now publicly saying will not supply weapons to Israel if they do this Rafah invasion. He needs to act tough for the sake of the region, but also for his own electoral chances. 

acting against Israel damages his political chances cos of the powerful Jewish lobby . the Palestinian supporters don't get close in influence and effect.

[steviewevie]

7 minutes ago, Neil said:

acting against Israel damages his political chances cos of the powerful Jewish lobby . the Palestinian supporters don't get close in influence and effect.

 

they might do in votes...especially in some of those states that matter.

[doogie]

5 hours ago, steviewevie said:

 

they might do in votes...especially in some of those states that matter.

 

Biden can't really afford to lose Pennsylvania and Florida, which are both large swing states with significant Jewish populations. 

 

Ironically, any pro-Palestine voter who doesn't vote for Biden is effectively voting for Trump, who is very pro-Israel.

[steviewevie]

10 minutes ago, doogie said:

 

Biden can't really afford to lose Pennsylvania and Florida, which are both large swing states with significant Jewish populations. 

 

Ironically, any pro-Palestine voter who doesn't vote for Biden is effectively voting for Trump, who is very pro-Israel.

well yeah. Actually Trump is a bit of an unknown really...who knows what he'd do, but certainly Republican party is very much less divided and very much more pro Israel than the Democrat party. But, then again, Trump is supposedly good at doing deals and playing hardball, would he have been tougher on Netanyahu, would Netanyahu have listened to what Trump was saying more, fellow populist knobhead and all that. Answer is probably no to both, but still...just never know with Trump. 

With the election I am not sure about the Jewish vote...I am sure there are many liberal Jews who are appalled at the actions of Israel, want a ceasefire, and would actually support US getting tougher with Israel to get this ceasefire, others may want US to continue its unconditional support and for Israel to "finish the job"..but may be they'd more likely be Trump voters anyway? There is a large Arab American populations in Michigan which is one of a few key states that Biden has to win, and it could be consequential, and that vote could matter.

Overall whether it will swing US election either way I guess probably not. Despite the college protests, this isn't Vietnam, US isn't directly involved, it isn't the no.1 problem in most people's minds, probably doesn't even make the top 10 for most people.

[steviewevie]

 

[steviewevie]

 

[steviewevie]

the world is seriously going to lose it's sh*t when Israel wins eurovision.

[Neil]

44 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

the world is seriously going to lose it's sh*t when Israel wins eurovision.

same as football a well known european country.

Edited May 10 by Neil

[fred quimby]

On 5/9/2024 at 8:02 AM, steviewevie said:

Biden now publicly saying will not supply weapons to Israel if they do this Rafah invasion. He needs to act tough for the sake of the region, but also for his own electoral chances. 

Only certain weapons I believe. Still delivering the others

[Nobody Interesting]

31 minutes ago, fred quimby said:

Only certain weapons I believe. Still delivering the others

 

Correct, it seems to be one shipment of big bombs - the bombs they are not currently using.

[steviewevie]

41 minutes ago, fred quimby said:

Only certain weapons I believe. Still delivering the others

 

yes, I mean I'm sure Israel have enough in stock to do what need to do in Rafah...but it is the symbolism...US support not unconditional. Netanyahu has a choice, give in to US and international pressure and risk his coalition falling apart and elections and probably his downfall., or carry on and do a big f**k you to the world.

[steviewevie]

and might become a US election issue...

[steviewevie]

 

[steviewevie]

Israel has left the UN. Pathetic really.

 

[steviewevie]

Israel go into Rafah whilst everyone is distracted by eurovision.

[Neil]

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

Israel go into Rafah whilst everyone is distracted by eurovision.

no, Hamas attack Israel while everyone is distracted by Eurovision: Israel wins Eurovision.

[steviewevie]

I would say this but locking the Eurovision thread is lame. The Israel situation is the biggest part of it whether people like it or not.

[Crazyfool01]

4 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

I would say this but locking the Eurovision thread is lame. The Israel situation is the biggest part of it whether people like it or not.

its lame is it ... perhaps the mod wants to enjoy a Sat evening freee from people  bickering. like 5 year olds