International Politics

[steviewevie]

Hamas they like the idea of this ceasefire plan being pushed by Blinken but want a complete Israeli withdrawel that Israel won't agree with.

And on it goes.

[doogie]

20 hours ago, steviewevie said:

 

 

You don't say.  This has been common knowledge for about 20 years.

[steviewevie]

39 minutes ago, doogie said:

 

You don't say.  This has been common knowledge for about 20 years.

so why has Israel fallen for it?

[doogie]

21 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

so why has Israel fallen for it?

 

Israel knew that as with all urban warfare there would be a lot of civilian casualties, and while this might play into Hamas's hands in the short term, it's clear to Israel that there could never be peace and security for Israel while Hamas runs Gaza.

 

Israel's calculation was that they could get rid of Hamas within a few months using military force.  It remains to be seen whether that's possible, but they still seem to think it is.

 

Hamas's position has always been the more civilian casualties the better.

Edited June 12 by doogie

[steviewevie]

Just now, doogie said:

 

Israel knew that as with all urban warfare there would be a lot of civilian casualties, and while this might play into Hamas's hands in the short term., it's clear to Israel that there could never be peace and security for Israel while Hamas runs Gaza.

 

Israel's calculation was that they could get rid of Hamas within a few months using military force.  It remains to be seen whether that's possible, but they still seem to think it is.

 

 

But long term will just be creating more Hamas (or equivalent) recruits in the future, and at same time makes Israel more of a pariah around the world. Plus, Hamas seem to be regrouping in parts of Gaza Israel think they have cleared..it just turns into guerilla war that Israel will likely never win. It's a no win situation, and it is the people of Gaza that are paying the price.

[doogie]

I agree it's a no win situation, and it is of course the people of Gaza that are paying the price.

 

It's hard to see what else Israel could have done though.  The events of October 7th and Hamas's insistence that they'd do it again and again made it impossible for Israel to wring their hands and do nothing.

[steviewevie]

55 minutes ago, doogie said:

I agree it's a no win situation, and it is of course the people of Gaza that are paying the price.

 

It's hard to see what else Israel could have done though.  The events of October 7th and Hamas's insistence that they'd do it again and again made it impossible for Israel to wring their hands and do nothing.

I guess they could have tried to be more precise with their hits on Hamas, and used the international sympathy they had following those attacks to eliminate funding to Hamas from wherever. And maybe even tried to work towards a viable Palestinian state with more moderate people who don't just want to destroy Israel.

I agree difficult, easy for me to write all this from such a distance.

[doogie]

2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

I guess they could have tried to be more precise with their hits on Hamas, and used the international sympathy they had following those attacks to eliminate funding to Hamas from wherever. And maybe even tried to work towards a viable Palestinian state with more moderate people who don't just want to destroy Israel.

I agree difficult, easy for me to write all this from such a distance.

 

Very difficult to be precise with their hits on Hamas when they are hidden in a network of tunnels under civilian infrastructure. The Israelis probably assumed they'd be on the right side of international law as civilian infrastructure was effectively being used as human shields, but even if it turns out they are on the right side of international law, there's no doubt the optics have been terrible throughout.

 

The vast majority of Israelis would be perfectly happy with a two state solution if Israel's security was guaranteed.  The problem will always be the extremists on both sides who'll do whatever it takes to ensure that doesn't happen.

[charlierc]

On 6/11/2024 at 11:43 AM, steviewevie said:

 

Not to say that some are unhappy with Eric Ciotti for this move, but he locked himself in his office to avoid talking to several high-ranking members of his party who don't want an alliance with Le Pen et all. Which probably doesn't bode well for their chances.

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, charlierc said:

Not to say that some are unhappy with Eric Ciotti for this move, but he locked himself in his office to avoid talking to several high-ranking members of his party who don't want an alliance with Le Pen et all. Which probably doesn't bode well for their chances.

we'll see. I still think it is a ridiculous gamble by Macron when he is so unpopular.

[charlierc]

8 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

we'll see. I still think it is a ridiculous gamble by Macron when he is so unpopular.

Well yes. The early suggestion is that it'll be a few gains by the Le Pen gang but not enough for a majority, but this nature of parties competing for alliances has lead to this curious self-destructive start for Les Republicans if they're already squabbling. And indeed, no doubt other parties will be having these tensions, given I'm aware Macron has sub-40% popularity in recent polls.

[steviewevie]

 

[charlierc]

23 hours ago, charlierc said:

Well yes. The early suggestion is that it'll be a few gains by the Le Pen gang but not enough for a majority, but this nature of parties competing for alliances has lead to this curious self-destructive start for Les Republicans if they're already squabbling. And indeed, no doubt other parties will be having these tensions, given I'm aware Macron has sub-40% popularity in recent polls.

Seems to be even messier, given that Les Republicans have tried to fire their leader but said leader says he's going nowhere, while the Zemmour party that's further right of Le Pen has already fallen into some just-as spectacular in-fighting.

[steviewevie]

9 minutes ago, charlierc said:

Seems to be even messier, given that Les Republicans have tried to fire their leader but said leader says he's going nowhere, while the Zemmour party that's further right of Le Pen has already fallen into some just-as spectacular in-fighting.

it's two rounds right? like the presidency thing where narrow it down to two for 2nd vote?

[charlierc]

4 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

it's two rounds right? like the presidency thing where narrow it down to two for 2nd vote?

It shall be, oui.

 

Which is perhaps where this will get more interesting given what the potential range is for the Le Pen gang. If it followed this poll, it would basically just give us a slightly different version of the current status, as at present, Macron's party is the largest but doesn't have a majority.

[Neil]

carla, less of a bristolian than me. 😛 

[Neil]

you can see where green party priorities lie, attacking labour, not farage, or tories.

[steviewevie]

 

[steviewevie]

 

[steviewevie]

A global peace summit to discuss end of Ukraine-Russia war without Russia or China isn't really a global peace summit.

[steviewevie]

omg eight israeli soldiers have been killed. Ceasefire now.

[steviewevie]

 

[charlierc]

On 6/15/2024 at 9:23 AM, steviewevie said:

A global peace summit to discuss end of Ukraine-Russia war without Russia or China isn't really a global peace summit.

Russia did propose a peace idea, but it's starting from their maximalist position where they get everything they want and could well leave Ukraine defenceless in case Russia want to try again and take the rest of Ukraine a few years down the line. Evidently, they're not arsed about a compromise just yet.

[steviewevie]

 

[charlierc]

2 hours ago, steviewevie said:

 

I see Macron pestering him at every international tournament has rubbed off. Though in fairness 2 or 3 other members of the French squad have also given anti-Le Pen comments in interviews.

 

Although makes sense thinking about it. I think I read somewhere Le Pen's even more extreme dad and some of his shared politics weren't exactly thrilled by a multi-racial French side winning the 1998 World Cup and were so happy to jump on their backs when in they f**ked it in South Korea & Japan 4 years later.

Edited June 16 by charlierc