Climate Change

[Nobody Interesting]

39 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

this looks bad.

 

38 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

as does this

Pretty much all as predicted in the 1990's, only around 10 years sooner than they thought...................... a huge escalation in change as tipping points are reached and passed.

If you want to despress yourself look at those predictions and then look at those for 2050 if little or nothing is done. We are on course for those in 2035-2040 at the moment.

[steviewevie]

43 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

 

Pretty much all as predicted in the 1990's, only around 10 years sooner than they thought...................... a huge escalation in change as tipping points are reached and passed.

If you want to despress yourself look at those predictions and then look at those for 2050 if little or nothing is done. We are on course for those in 2035-2040 at the moment.

Too late to stop that though, right?

[Nobody Interesting]

25 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Too late to stop that though, right?

If the world acts now and acts fast then no it's not too late. We can if we want stop things soon and reverse to a certain extent. Sadly though the world seems lacking in any desire to stop.

 

[kaosmark2]

4 hours ago, Nobody Interesting said:

If the world acts now and acts fast then no it's not too late. We can if we want stop things soon and reverse to a certain extent. Sadly though the world seems lacking in any desire to stop.

 

I don't even think it's the world lacking desire, it's the industrial capitalist complex that doesn't. Several countries are already seeing disaster and massive climate problems as a result of what's been done, but the rich need to get richer and those of us doing "middling" in wealthy countries aren't willing to reduce our own consumerism.

[Nobody Interesting]

1 minute ago, kaosmark2 said:

I don't even think it's the world lacking desire, it's the industrial capitalist complex that doesn't. Several countries are already seeing disaster and massive climate problems as a result of what's been done, but the rich need to get richer and those of us doing "middling" in wealthy countries aren't willing to reduce our own consumerism.

I should have said those running the world that have no desire - cos they really don't as, as you rightly say, they want to get richer.

One day in the not too distant future China will reach 'net zero' (a meaningless thing in reality) and the rest of the developed world will lose their excuse for not acting................................ so will then blame India instead. Countries like the UK will fiddle while the world burns pretending to be taking action with policies that soon get scrapped.

I am so glad I am not young.

[kaosmark2]

25 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

One day in the not too distant future China will reach 'net zero' (a meaningless thing in reality) and the rest of the developed world will lose their excuse for not acting................................ so will then blame India instead. 

This is the depressing thing. Particularly as the developed world will point their fingers, while still buying all those products from India.

[steviewevie]

18 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

I should have said those running the world that have no desire - cos they really don't as, as you rightly say, they want to get richer.

One day in the not too distant future China will reach 'net zero' (a meaningless thing in reality) and the rest of the developed world will lose their excuse for not acting................................ so will then blame India instead. Countries like the UK will fiddle while the world burns pretending to be taking action with policies that soon get scrapped.

I am so glad I am not young.

China's net zero goals are later than US/Europe, right? They pushed back on the original goals set at that Glasgow COP, along with India. Maybe they will get there earlier, they are certainly at the forefront of green tech and can think long term and plan accordingly because they don't have to worry about something called democracy, but US/EU are ploughing loads of money into this too. I think just blaming the evil west or evil capitalism is kind of lame, no matter what system a country has they still want to build and have more stuff. The problem is on top of developed countries and their massive carbon spewing economies we have all the developing countries, they want to build, they want to use loads of cement and loads of steel and have all the things that developed countries have, and now we're saying sorry...no can do.

[steviewevie]

and the thing with China and India is that both these countries have been developing rapidly, especially China...and between them they have 1/3 of the world's population.

[Nobody Interesting]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

China's net zero goals are later than US/Europe, right? They pushed back on the original goals set at that Glasgow COP, along with India. Maybe they will get there earlier, they are certainly at the forefront of green tech and can think long term and plan accordingly because they don't have to worry about something called democracy, but US/EU are ploughing loads of money into this too. I think just blaming the evil west or evil capitalism is kind of lame, no matter what system a country has they still want to build and have more stuff. The problem is on top of developed countries and their massive carbon spewing economies we have all the developing countries, they want to build, they want to use loads of cement and loads of steel and have all the things that developed countries have, and now we're saying sorry...no can do.

China released updates on it last month and are way ahead of schedule - this was always going to happen cos when China decides to do stuff, it does stuff quickly.

[Nobody Interesting]

2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

and the thing with China and India is that both these countries have been developing rapidly, especially China...and between them they have 1/3 of the world's population.

and neither are any excuse for others to do nothing.................. but are and will be used in just that way

[steviewevie]

5 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

and neither are any excuse for others to do nothing.................. but are and will be used in just that way

countries aren't doing nothing, they have their net zero goals which they will be held to, as do China and India. Granted it is easier for some countries to hit those goals.

[kaosmark2]

7 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

China's net zero goals are later than US/Europe, right? They pushed back on the original goals set at that Glasgow COP, along with India. Maybe they will get there earlier, they are certainly at the forefront of green tech and can think long term and plan accordingly because they don't have to worry about something called democracy, but US/EU are ploughing loads of money into this too. I think just blaming the evil west or evil capitalism is kind of lame, no matter what system a country has they still want to build and have more stuff. The problem is on top of developed countries and their massive carbon spewing economies we have all the developing countries, they want to build, they want to use loads of cement and loads of steel and have all the things that developed countries have, and now we're saying sorry...no can do.

Yes to basically all this.

The "unfairness" of the West benefiting from the industrial revolution and no other countries being "allowed" to is a big part of why negotiations allowed later net zero. That said, China will certainly beat the US and probably beat most EU countries to net zero.

I think it's fair to comment on the problems of capitalism, "replace" over "fix/recycle/refurbish" has been a thing for a long time, and the economics that lead to it being quicker, easier, and usually cheaper to just get a new thing should be called out.

A big big question is going to be what green technology China develops, and then whether they actually choose to share it with the rest of the world. I can very much see a situation where China makes some brilliant advances in non-carbon technology, but declines to share the methods and only sells a sample of the products, leaving the rest of the world playing catch-up to China.

[steviewevie]

Us is investing heavily in this stuff too. I wonder if Trump will change direction if he gets in...?

[Nobody Interesting]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

countries aren't doing nothing, they have their net zero goals which they will be held to, as do China and India. Granted it is easier for some countries to hit those goals.

The UK has rolled back on 95% of their policies. Germany has started to delay too.

I can guarantee that unless some creative accounting is used by using Carbon Credits very few, if any, countries in Europe will meet their net zero targets.

To meet them things needed to be started 10 plus years ago - even if we start on mass today we will not change quick enough. We would be 5-10 years late.

The only way things will be 'met' is carbon credits which will become more valuable than gold.

[steviewevie]

Fond this...a few African nations leading the way...US/Europe not so good...China and India even worse...and as for Russia..

Countries | Climate Action Tracker

(not sure how up to date).

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

The UK has rolled back on 95% of their policies. Germany has started to delay too.

I can guarantee that unless some creative accounting is used by using Carbon Credits very few, if any, countries in Europe will meet their net zero targets.

To meet them things needed to be started 10 plus years ago - even if we start on mass today we will not change quick enough. We would be 5-10 years late.

The only way things will be 'met' is carbon credits which will become more valuable than gold.

might get worse...the populist right which is on the rise everywhere has put net zero on their list of things that are bad.

[Nobody Interesting]

Just now, steviewevie said:

might get worse...the populist right which is on the rise everywhere has put net zero on their list of things that are bad.

Very very true and sadly so.

Reform are Climate Change deniers and cos people are voting for them the Tories will grab hold of ideas like that.

As the Tories move further right the others follow to fill the gap and we end up with little or nothing left of centre.

If I am honest and in a bad mood then I think the end game is a big war after which people will change back to liberal and left governments and, for 50 plus years, make the world a better place before the cyclical hatred starts rising again.

Glad I am not young

[Nobody Interesting]

5 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Fond this...a few African nations leading the way...US/Europe not so good...China and India even worse...and as for Russia..

Countries | Climate Action Tracker

(not sure how up to date).

The Green column says all you need to know.

The world is Insufficient.

[kaosmark2]

9 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Fond this...a few African nations leading the way...US/Europe not so good...China and India even worse...and as for Russia..

Countries | Climate Action Tracker

(not sure how up to date).

You can kinda see the self-interest. Those African countries will suffer a lot from climate catastrophes, so are making a proportionally bigger effort. Norway is interesting, and I suspect is largely to do with the fact they're selling off their remaining Oil reserves instead of burning it themselves - simultaneously creative accounting and good economics. Although they're also at fairly high risk of shifted currents with the ice caps melting etc.

[steviewevie]

27 minutes ago, kaosmark2 said:

You can kinda see the self-interest. Those African countries will suffer a lot from climate catastrophes, so are making a proportionally bigger effort. Norway is interesting, and I suspect is largely to do with the fact they're selling off their remaining Oil reserves instead of burning it themselves - simultaneously creative accounting and good economics. Although they're also at fairly high risk of shifted currents with the ice caps melting etc.

but also those African countries aren't emitting anywhere near the amount that more developed countries are, so have less to do to achieve et zero goals? If you look at graphs China/India emissions have been rapidly rising so they have to halt that and reverse, which is probably why needed more time. USA/Canada were at a high level consistently, and in Europe levels had been coming down since the 90s I guess as many of their industries moved abroad and they moved away from coal?

Anyway, no one is doing very well...and we won't hit goals..but hopefully what is done will stop us getting above 3C because anything less is unrealistic I expect.

Edited February 19 by steviewevie

[kaosmark2]

5 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

but also those African countries aren't emitting anywhere near the amount that more developed countries are, so have less to do to achieve et zero goals? If you look at graphs China/India emissions have been rapidly rising so they have to halt that and reverse, which is probably why needed more time. USA/Canada were at a high level consistently, and in Europe levels had been coming down since the 90s I guess as many of they're industries moved abroad and they moved away from coal?

Anyway, no one is doing very well...and we won't hit goals..but hopefully what is done will stop us getting above 3C because anything less is unrealistic I expect.

Yeah, although they're not tacking into carbon emissions intentionally, in a way that they could/would do without the threat of climate crisis. You compare to India, where India are making an active choice to industrialise large parts of their country/economy using fossil fuels, and ignoring the state of the globe (and like... anything about their farmers having even a hint of right to food they grow).

[steviewevie]

 

[Nobody Interesting]

but some will rant that flying is the big problem.............................

""

Beef production by three of the world's biggest meatpackers has been linked to illegal deforestation in Brazil's Cerrado, according to campaigners.

The savannah, which featured in Planet Earth III, hosts 5% of Earth's species and is a buffer against global warming.

In one part of the Cerrado, nearly half of the farms supplying the companies had cut down trees, the Global Witness investigation suggests.

The companies, JBS, Minerva and Marfrig said they acted in line with local law.

The Cerrado sits next to the Amazon but unlike its neighbouring habitat has not been afforded the same protections. An upcoming EU law to reduce the import of products from deforested land does not include much of the Cerrado, as it is not considered a forest under the legislation.""

 

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-68272643

[lazyred]

Some goid news for once. We're pulling out of a treaty that allows investors to sue for losses caused by net zero policies

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/feb/22/uk-quits-treaty-that-lets-fossil-fuel-firms-sue-governments-over-climate-policies

[Nobody Interesting]

If we carry on (the world over) how we are now and by that I mean the rate of reduction etc this is a map of the UK in 2100

Hope you can swim.