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Weather thread 2010

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podge52 Newbie

podge52

Posted
Posted

UK Outlook for Tuesday 22 Jun 2010 to Thursday 1 Jul 2010:

Most areas of the UK should see plenty of fine and dry weather next week, with extended sunny periods and just a low chance of some showers developing inland from time to time. Northwestern areas may well be cloudier with occasional rain, although there should be periods of drier and brighter weather here too. Winds will be fresh at times in the northwest, but should stay light or moderate elsewhere. Beyond the weekend, many areas will remain mainly dry but there is a chance of more unsettled weather spreading from the west. Temperatures are expected to be warm at first, locally very warm in the southeast, but are likely to return to near normal in northern and western parts towards the end of the month.

Updated: 1354 on Thu 17 Jun 2010

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stevieweevil Newbie

stevieweevil

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Posted

UK Outlook for Tuesday 22 Jun 2010 to Thursday 1 Jul 2010:

Most areas of the UK should see plenty of fine and dry weather next week, with extended sunny periods and just a low chance of some showers developing inland from time to time. Northwestern areas may well be cloudier with occasional rain, although there should be periods of drier and brighter weather here too. Winds will be fresh at times in the northwest, but should stay light or moderate elsewhere. Beyond the weekend, many areas will remain mainly dry but there is a chance of more unsettled weather spreading from the west. Temperatures are expected to be warm at first, locally very warm in the southeast, but are likely to return to near normal in northern and western parts towards the end of the month.

Updated: 1354 on Thu 17 Jun 2010

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devonhammer Collaborator

devonhammer

Posted
Posted

I really don't get this.

I have looked at the GFS on Netweather - rain throughout?! Where? Looks pretty dry Wednesday to Friday.

ECM - is there anywhere I should be looking for precipitation? Can't really understand much of that.

I don't get this continual shift of forecasts. I certainly can't see a 2007 - Wednesday (at least) looks like being quite nice.

DIsclaimer: I am no expert, merely an obsessive. It is wholly possible that I can't read the charts properly and could be very wrong indeed.

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neilt Newbie

neilt

Posted
Posted

UK Outlook for Tuesday 22 Jun 2010 to Thursday 1 Jul 2010:

Most areas of the UK should see plenty of fine and dry weather next week, with extended sunny periods and just a low chance of some showers developing inland from time to time. Northwestern areas may well be cloudier with occasional rain, although there should be periods of drier and brighter weather here too. Winds will be fresh at times in the northwest, but should stay light or moderate elsewhere. Beyond the weekend, many areas will remain mainly dry but there is a chance of more unsettled weather spreading from the west. Temperatures are expected to be warm at first, locally very warm in the southeast, but are likely to return to near normal in northern and western parts towards the end of the month.

Updated: 1354 on Thu 17 Jun 2010

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jezzer Rookie

jezzer

Posted
Posted (edited)

Presume some of you are lurking in the Netweather forums, apologies if you've already seen this but for those that haven't a couple of positive comments

Milhouse

"I may be in the minority here in thinking that the ECM 12z isnt too bad, i would certainly take it over a showery northeasterly. However the 12z yesterday was showing HP throughout so we should by no means expect low pressure encroaching from the west later on next week as its still far from certain. UKMO12z remains the pick of the models, sending the LP far enough to the NW to be of any bother."

North Sea Snow Convection

"I agree with others about hoping the UKMO is right. It looks as though there is some support from the GEM as well, although this also tends to leak high pressure away later on to - but not as quickly as ECM and GFS. Recent updates from the Met Office have not mentioned the weather breaking down at all next week - any hints of this only for the week after in western areas. So at the very least, there is hope that the GFS and ECM are being too progressive"

Just discovered this link to the GEM forecasts, GEM Euro forecasts click on all 56 images and then track the pressure systems, God I need to get out more. Thanks goodness England are playing tonight :D

Edited by jezzer
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formed a band Newbie

formed a band

Posted
Posted

I must be going mad. I was sure I clicked on the UKMO button at the top but when I just tried again I see I must have still been looking at the GFS chart. Apologies all! As the saying goes, a little knowledge is a dangerous thing! Oh well, I survived 1985, 1997, 1998 and 2007 so another washout won't kill me. I was looking forward to strolling around in the sun like 2003 again but, hey ho, there are people dying in Africa, etc. etc. so I'm sure we can put up with the relative 'hardship':blink:

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DougalMcGuire Newbie

DougalMcGuire

Posted
Posted

Checking out this thread is more stressful than watching England in a semi final :blink:

By using this unshakable logic, the forecasts here are absolutely taking a 24 hour cycle of fryingly hot Germanic sun and biblical, well you know the alternative, frogs legs and white flags..

Using this approach to the next few days it follows that the forecasts will rotate as below:

wednesday - bad

Yesterday - good

today - bad

tomorrow - good

sunday - bad

Monday - good

Tuesday - bad

Wednesday - Good, by which time we're there and the forecast will stick and be correct for the duration. It's all going to be alright....

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sprocketrocket Community Regular

sprocketrocket

Posted
Posted (edited)

Checking out this thread is more stressful than watching England in a semi final :blink:

By using this unshakable logic, the forecasts here are absolutely taking a 24 hour cycle of fryingly hot Germanic sun and biblical, well you know the alternative, frogs legs and white flags..

Using this approach to the next few days it follows that the forecasts will rotate as below:

wednesday - bad

Yesterday - good

today - bad

tomorrow - good

sunday - bad

Monday - good

Tuesday - bad

Wednesday - Good, by which time we're there and the forecast will stick and be correct for the duration. It's all going to be alright....

Edited by sprocketrocket
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psychology Newbie

psychology

Posted
Posted

Checking out this thread is more stressful than watching England in a semi final :blink:

By using this unshakable logic, the forecasts here are absolutely taking a 24 hour cycle of fryingly hot Germanic sun and biblical, well you know the alternative, frogs legs and white flags..

Using this approach to the next few days it follows that the forecasts will rotate as below:

wednesday - bad

Yesterday - good

today - bad

tomorrow - good

sunday - bad

Monday - good

Tuesday - bad

Wednesday - Good, by which time we're there and the forecast will stick and be correct for the duration. It's all going to be alright....

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bamber Experienced

bamber

Posted
Posted

Other models that are coming into range to consider besides the GFS, ECM and UKMO include the US Navy NOGAPS model and MM5. NOGAPS seems at the moment to agree more with the UKMO and shows the low staying out to the West (see below) - NO RAIN. The MM5 forecasts only go out to 72Hrs but I have been informed that MM5 represents the future of weather modelling and can be very reliable.

Pretty much all the models available worldwide can be accessed using the wonderful westwind.ch . Especially check out the comparison charts under forecast mod. special

Rngp1441.gif

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