Weather thread 2010

[lac999]

After checking out metcheck, the assessment seems to be as follows so far.

We are on for a dry Wednesday, however Thursday afternoon we are set for a bit of poor luck, which will continue through Friday. It then should dry up for the saturday & sunday.

Not a disaster. Keep the faith folks!

Edited May 29, 2010 by lac999

[Langdale Wolf]

Haven't seen this posted yet... from Metoffice:

UK Outlook for Saturday 12 Jun 2010 to Saturday 26 Jun 2010:

It is likely to remain unsettled at first with showery rain for much of the country. There should then be a trend towards higher pressure giving drier and brighter conditions. Many areas should see a good deal of sunshine and warm to very warm temperatures. Southern and western parts may see more in the way of rainfall with the possibility of some thundery weather, whilst northern and eastern regions should remain drier.

Updated: 1233 on Fri 28 May 2010

Repeat of 2005?

[guyfawkes]

Let me put it this way on Monday the Met predicted that thursday and friday would be raining and it would brighten up by saturday.

It was sunny and dry thursday and friday and currently its f**king pissing down, they can't accurately predict more than 2/3 days in advance and until i feel rain on my head at glasto (which i won't because my skin will be peeling off due to the freak heatwave) i wouldn't trust a weatherman as far as i could throw the fat rain loving bastard!!

Edited May 29, 2010 by guyfawkes

[3puddings]

Let me put it this way on Monday the Met predicted that thursday and friday would be raining and it would brighten up by saturday.

It was sunny and dry thursday and friday and currently its f**king pissing down, they can't accurately predict more than 2/3 days in advance and until i feel rain on my head at glasto (which i won't because my skin will be peeling off due to the freak heatwave) i wouldn't trust a weatherman as far as i could throw the fat rain loving bastard!!

[mouth]

No. That was a freak storm, not just a 'thundery shower'.

The site would have been fine if it wasn't for the sheer volume of rain in such a short space of time.

To get another 2005, we'd have to be EXTREMELY unlucky.

[brixesmith]

I seem to remember someone saying last year that the weather of 4 weeks before is the weather we get. I can't remember whether this was proved correct or not last year, but this morning it's pissing down. Even in my house, I woke to that exact dreaded sound of steady rain on the roof of your tent - horrible!

[brixesmith]

OK, I've taken it upon myself to do some preliminary research on the BBC weather archive website. It's not specific to areas of the UK and just gives a monthly overview but:

in 1998, May was v warm and dry. We all know the absolute hell on earth that ensued. On the other hand, the fourth week of May, 1999, saw thunderstorms, while the festival itself (and I may be wrong in my recollection) was the last one to have not a drop of rain all weekend (please correct me on that if I'm wrong, it certainly was scorching though).

[andymk]

Jackone's latest...

This is the first of a series of forecast for Glastonbury. I will split this first blog into 3 sections.

1. Monthly Forecasts issued by CFS

2. Daily Forecasts issued by CFS

3. Current thoughts and Overall Summary

1. Monthly Forecasts

Looking at the picture for June

Pressure is above average over the Atlantic, close to average over the UK, but below average over mainland Europe. Rainfall is around 90-95% of average, while temps 0.4-0.6c below average.

July (used for indicative purposes, as Glastonbury is at the end of June, temps are around 0.2-0.3c above average, rainfall around 105-110%, with pressure around average.

So in summary, higher pressure indicated for western parts of the UK with less than average rainfall is promising for Glastonbury.

2. Daily Forecasts

CFS published on Thursday 27th May

High Pressure is over the UK on the Wednesday, before slowly moving West to the position shown by Sunday. It is looking mostly dry over the festival, perhaps a show on Wednesday and a front pushing south late on Sunday. Temps low to mid teens, slightly warming hitting the high teens around the Friday (shown below).

CFS published on Friday 28th May

Low Pressure is set to move east across southern parts of the UK on the start of the festival, as you see with the charts below, this would give some very heavy rainfall, and this alone would lead to a washout. However it should become more settled over the weekend, temps generally around average.

So a complete contrast in the 2 days forecast, the Thursday forecast, is the best in a week, while the Friday one is not promising at all.

General thoughts and Summary

A wide variety of evidence at this stage, the daily forecasts are generally unsettled, but the Thursday one is the best seen in a week. The monthly forecasts indicate conditions around or slightly drier than average. The Met office indicates that there may that rainfall for southern and western areas maybe above average, with the chance of some thundery outbreaks.

On this basis I am going for 55% chance of a wet festival at this stage. But we are still a very long way from the festival and there a lot of complex information and things can very quickly change.

[guypjfreak]

Where did you hear this? I demand to know!!

[Langdale Wolf]

Jackone's latest...

This is the first of a series of forecast for Glastonbury. I will split this first blog into 3 sections.

1. Monthly Forecasts issued by CFS

2. Daily Forecasts issued by CFS

3. Current thoughts and Overall Summary

1. Monthly Forecasts

Looking at the picture for June

Pressure is above average over the Atlantic, close to average over the UK, but below average over mainland Europe. Rainfall is around 90-95% of average, while temps 0.4-0.6c below average.

July (used for indicative purposes, as Glastonbury is at the end of June, temps are around 0.2-0.3c above average, rainfall around 105-110%, with pressure around average.

So in summary, higher pressure indicated for western parts of the UK with less than average rainfall is promising for Glastonbury.

2. Daily Forecasts

CFS published on Thursday 27th May

High Pressure is over the UK on the Wednesday, before slowly moving West to the position shown by Sunday. It is looking mostly dry over the festival, perhaps a show on Wednesday and a front pushing south late on Sunday. Temps low to mid teens, slightly warming hitting the high teens around the Friday (shown below).

CFS published on Friday 28th May

Low Pressure is set to move east across southern parts of the UK on the start of the festival, as you see with the charts below, this would give some very heavy rainfall, and this alone would lead to a washout. However it should become more settled over the weekend, temps generally around average.

So a complete contrast in the 2 days forecast, the Thursday forecast, is the best in a week, while the Friday one is not promising at all.

General thoughts and Summary

A wide variety of evidence at this stage, the daily forecasts are generally unsettled, but the Thursday one is the best seen in a week. The monthly forecasts indicate conditions around or slightly drier than average. The Met office indicates that there may that rainfall for southern and western areas maybe above average, with the chance of some thundery outbreaks.

On this basis I am going for 55% chance of a wet festival at this stage. But we are still a very long way from the festival and there a lot of complex information and things can very quickly change.

[mouth]

cant have this dropping down to page 2. come on weather nerds.

[possum]

cant have this dropping down to page 2. come on weather nerds.

[amfy]

In fairness - it has turned out lovely today! Proper breezy but very pleasant - we've been out for a nice walk!

Yesterday I was in some despair about the "weather of 4 weeks before" theory - even though I actually have no idea whether it holds up. Today I am thinking it was OK on Wednesday and Thursday. Friday was actually very nice, and the sun even broke through once or twice yesterday -no - in fairness I have to admit yesterday was shit - but today it is pretty good again.

Today I am thinking that if the "4 weeks before " weather theory turned out to be true I could live with it. I would prefer not to have to deal with what yesterday did, but if all the days around it behave the same, I can live with it.

[rabid]

I'm shocked to discover that I'm the only one looking at the weather thread! What on earth could people be doing on a Sunday afternoon that's more important?

[MrPink]

your all C U N T S!!!

[leaim99]

report this bum

[amfy]

Don't feed the troll - report and move on.

[scaryclaireyfairy]

it chucked it down here earlier then was blazing sunshine as i was making my way to the shops. the humidity and the smell of things growing and grass under my feet gave me a little glasto shiver for a moment. though obviously humid heat is not what i want.

[4AssedMonkey]

Me and some colleagues had a 24 hour, 100KM hike planned this weekend in the Yorkshire Dales for charity. The weather was piss awful. Cold, windy, wet, low cloud, you name any kind of weather you don't like and we had it. It even hailed on some of the higher ground at one point. Needless to say, we didn't manage the full route.

My feet are ripped to shreds due to the wet socks/walking combo. I've managed to pick up a groin strain. I've got blisters on blisters and just before going to bed all I could think about was "it can't be like this at Glasto." So it can't. I won't even contemplate it.

[mouth]

at least the out of work arse is helping keep the thread on the first page. mind you i hope his forecast of your allo c**ts isnt true otherwise i may have to go to the fest single.

[puppetmode]

if this weekends weather replayed on the festival weekend. Would you be happy?

Here in Manchester, it rained most of the day on Saturday but been dry Thursday to Sunday. Probably take that

[guypjfreak]

its been bright with a nice warm breeze something like this would be top of the range . my sons coming round tomo sorting the tents out .am i the only one with loads still unsorted from last year

[Langdale Wolf]

if this weekends weather replayed on the festival weekend. Would you be happy?

Here in Manchester, it rained most of the day on Saturday but been dry Thursday to Sunday. Probably take that

[glastofreak]

no rain is acceptable no compromise

[radiohea_d]

This thread is tempting fate. I order it to be removed!