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Weather thread 2010

Guest remote

By Guest remote
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devonhammer Collaborator

devonhammer

Posted
Posted

Updates for today:

ECM: Probably some showers on Saturday, otherwise dry :)

GFS: Rain :(

GFS Ensemble: Showers on Friday, Saturday and Sunday :(

Norwegians: Showers on Saturday :mellow:

Met Office/BBC: Dry :)

=1]Meteo: Dry :)

JackOne: 40% chance of wet festival :mellow:

On the basis that Met Office/BBC (BBC use Met Office) are good and only the unreliable GFS (MetCheck, Accuweather et al.) are bad, then I'm still feeling positive. I'm definitely thinking sausage weather, possibly with a hint of garlic, but hopefully with some sauerkraut.

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devonhammer Collaborator

devonhammer

Posted
Posted

I'm guessing that many of the weather sites (e.g The Weather Outlook, Accuweather etc) just update based on the models described above. Hence many are showing "R" where previously they were showing fine/dry??

I'm still looking for a forecast I like, then I'll stick with that one! Onwards and upwards, The Jackone index is at 40%, the lowest for a while and that's good. I'm happy and hopeful.

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android-app-developer Newbie

android-app-developer

Posted
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You're spot on. They all use GFS data from the US Govt because it's free. GFS is generally regarded as one of the worst indicators of European weather and people place more trust in the EU's ECM and other national weather services e.g. the Met Office. Long range GFS data is referred to as GFS FI on weather forums - this stands for Fantasy Island!

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scorp Newbie

scorp

Posted
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the 0400 run on netweather now has heavy r**n on the SAT, but at least that torrential word has gone.

away from computer all day today, so no doubt i will come back and we will be 125 pages plus...we will go from baguettes to frankfurters a few times and hopefully LW and the troops will stay strong and keep those damn frogs at arms length.

if things start to look worse, i am sure we can rely on devon hammer to find us something optimistic..

WE SHALL FIGHT ON THE BEACHES.............

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BlackHole2006 Newbie

BlackHole2006

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COME ON!

Only the people uploading the pics of the site being constructed are keeping me going. On there it looks sunny so why shouldn't it be at Glasto. If it's not sunny then there will be severe consequences. Somebody WILL have to pay and seeing as I can't exactly smite god it would have to be someone who actually EXISTS.*

*please don't turn the weather thread into religious debate. I'm just kidding.

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devonhammer Collaborator

devonhammer

Posted
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I'm putting all my faith devonhammer now as I've just looked at the UK Precipitation filter on the GFS charts and it appears that Sat & Sun will be a complete washout. Fingers crossed that ECM is indeed far more reliable. By the way, it is possible to choose a UK Precipitation filter for ECM data on the NetWeather site? Fingers and toes crossed B) .

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SeanF Newbie

SeanF

Posted
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Reading this thread is killing me. Updated yesterday, the UK Met Office have:

UK Outlook for Monday 21 Jun 2010 to Wednesday 30 Jun 2010:

Most areas of the UK should remain largely dry throughout next week with some decent sunny periods at times. Northern and northwestern areas are likely to be cloudiest and are more likely to see occasional rain, although there will be plenty of dry and bright weather too. Although most other places will be mainly dry, isolated light showers may develop at times. Temperatures should be near normal throughout much of the period, and it should feel pleasantly warm in any prolonged periods of sunshine, but will feel cooler on the coasts. Indications are that there these mainly dry conditions will continue to the end of June, with temperatures remaining close to average for the time of year in most places.

Updated: 1201 on Wed 16 Jun 2010

So, keeping with the, ah, German theme:

paa566000012.jpg

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guypjfreak Mentor

guypjfreak

Posted
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To save you reading 119 pages, German things mean good weather, French things mean bad weather.

So, to use your system: Ja

I'll try to summarise each morning with smiley and sad faces, but this is not guaranteed and is pretty unlikely this weekend.

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marktea Enthusiast

marktea

Posted
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Firstly, I have some outdated knowledge, but I'm no expert. Secondly, AFAIK I don't think ECM output rain predictions and I much prefer to go direct to their site as Netweather always seems to have half their charts missing. Simple way to predict good or bad weather is highs and lows. Highs have higher numbers and an H, Lows have lower numbers and an L. High pressure is relative to surrounding pressure and so it's far more important to be "above" surrounding areas than to have a high pressure reading.

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