World Cup 2010

[eFestivals]

I'm not trying to get the same, tired argument going again, but a lot of highly respected names in the world of football have been contributing to THIS feature on the BBC.

England are - according the the summary of all those - the 4th favourites to win it.

Would you say that is a reasonable summary?

Probably not (no time to read it), cos it's been written in England from an English point of view. Here's betting it's slanted as a result of that.

[eFestivals]

And according to William Hill and Ladbrokes.

Now that's very definitely something which means f**k all - the odds in a betting shop are based on who is betting on what, and not on the actual chances of any particular winner.

Given that they operate primarily in the UK, then they'll be a disproportionate amount of bets on England, and that'll have lowered the odds they offer on England.

[ampersand]

Now that's very definitely something which means f**k all - the odds in a betting shop are based on who is betting on what, and not on the actual chances of any particular winner.

Given that they operate primarily in the UK, then they'll be a disproportionate amount of bets on England, and that'll have lowered the odds they offer on England.

[Langdale Wolf]

Probably not (no time to read it), cos it's been written in England from an English point of view. Here's betting it's slanted as a result of that.

[Cardboard Box City]

Now that's very definitely something which means f**k all - the odds in a betting shop are based on who is betting on what, and not on the actual chances of any particular winner.

Given that they operate primarily in the UK, then they'll be a disproportionate amount of bets on England, and that'll have lowered the odds they offer on England.

[eFestivals]

Nope. It's quite a wide range of nationalities that have contributed.

Yep .... but there's a high likihood that - for some at least - when they're asked by the British press they say 'England' and when the same player is asked by (say) the German press they say 'Germany', etc, etc.

It's hugely unlikely that it's all the true views of those players, just from human nature.

[eFestivals]

Betclic.com says we're 7/1 J3FAVS

but again it proves nothing without putting it into context by knowing where the bets are coming from.

[Kowalski]

It's because England aren't one of the best 4 teams in the world.

[Langdale Wolf]

Yep .... but there's a high likihood that - for some at least - when they're asked by the British press they say 'England' and when the same player is asked by (say) the German press they say 'Germany', etc, etc.

It's hugely unlikely that it's all the true views of those players, just from human nature.

[eFestivals]

Some sense at last.

what do ya mean, "at last"?

I've been saying it since this thread started.

[ampersand]

Yeah, they were asked who they thought would win so they lied to be 'polite'.

Good grief.

[eFestivals]

Yeah, they were asked who they thought would win so they lied to be 'polite'.

Good grief.

Laugh all you like. It's something which happens all the frigging time.

Or do you believe every band which tells you "you're the best audience we've ever had"?

(There's the whole population of a country falling for that bollox when it comes from a band's lips. )

[Kowalski]

what do ya mean, "at last"?

I've been saying it since this thread started.

[philipsteak]

Xavier Rivoire France Football magazine

1 Spain 2 Holland 3 Ghana 4 New Zealand

[Cardboard Box City]

but again it proves nothing without putting it into context by knowing where the bets are coming from.

[Langdale Wolf]

Laugh all you like. It's something which happens all the frigging time.

Or do you believe every band which tells you "you're the best audience we've ever had"?

(There's the whole population of a country falling for that bollox when it comes from a band's lips. )

[budvar]

Quick question gang. Is there an efestivals fantasy football league for the WC? Having won the Premier League one a few years ago I'd like to get involved if there is.

I've signed up to the official FIFA/McDonalds game (got to love that sponsorship) so was hoping there would already be a league set up and one of you will know the code.

[Tugger2k]

It's because England aren't one of the best 4 teams in the world.

[eFestivals]

Continental Europe.

what, only? And even the specific countries will make a big difference - they'll be an awful lot of bets on England from Norway, for example.

Without a complete breakdown of the numbers of people from each country and the amounts from each country, nothing meaningful can be taken from it.

[eFestivals]

Yes, because they're exactly the same thing and totally comparible.

They're both driven by the exact same thing - human nature.

[Kowalski]

Quick question gang. Is there an efestivals fantasy football league for the WC? Having won the Premier League one a few years ago I'd like to get involved if there is.

I've signed up to the official FIFA/McDonalds game (got to love that sponsorship) so was hoping there would already be a league set up and one of you will know the code.

[eFestivals]

correct. they are one of the best 8. in a knockout competition. where form and ranking will play a part. no doubt. but not everything is about form and ranking. if it were, there would be no point in playing any competition. just hand the trophy to the top ranked team and all go on holiday.

pompey won the fa cup without being one of the best 8 countries in england. greece won the euro champs even though 6 other countries were ranked above them

once you get down to the knock-out stages, anything CAN happen. it has happened before, it will happen again. the un-expected, the un-fancied, the unlikely CAN win cup competitions

we still believetm

there you go langdale

So what you're saying is that if England get very lucky they'll win it. But even then they still won't be the best team, they'll just be the winners.

Me, I just cut out the pointless hoping, and say it exactly how I see it (and how you see it too). That it's unlikely that England will win.

[Ed209]

correct. they are one of the best 8. in a knockout competition. where form and ranking will play a part. no doubt. but not everything is about form and ranking. if it were, there would be no point in playing any competition. just hand the trophy to the top ranked team and all go on holiday.

pompey won the fa cup without being one of the best 8 countries in england. greece won the euro champs even though 6 other countries were ranked above them

once you get down to the knock-out stages, anything CAN happen. it has happened before, it will happen again. the un-expected, the un-fancied, the unlikely CAN win cup competitions

we still believetm

there you go langdale

[Tugger2k]

So what you're saying is that if England get very lucky they'll win it. But even then they still won't be the best team, they'll just be the winners.

Me, I just cut out the pointless hoping, and say it exactly how I see it (and how you see it too). That it's unlikely that England will win.

[Cardboard Box City]

you, you just like being misanthropic and a killjoy. your way takes away the magic of the sport