Football 2010-2011

[The Nal]

The inconsistency is the laughable part.

[eFestivals]

He'd have a chance. Don't think you can definitively say he "WILL".

Got to consider that even if Utd win the next 2 games, it's still the lowest points total for the winner since 2000-2001.

<snip>

OK, on the basis of what you've laid out maybe I've stretched it a little - but it is definitely only a little.

And alongside that I'd say that the reason for lower points for the winner this season is due to other teams being less behind than they were, so it's pretty reasonable to conclude that it's likely to get tougher still for the winner next season with both City on the up and Liverpool on the up, and others around the top not really likely to be weaker (except perhaps Spurs, but just a little).

Plus Dalglish hasn't been able to deploy all the players he might have had available in the few months he's had. OK, injuries are the norm so there's always going to be some, but it's unlikely that he'd go the best part of a whole season without two players of Gerrard's and (supposedly) Carroll's quality in the way that both have been mostly unavailable to him in the time he's had.

And remember, under Dalglish, points have been taken off all of those top teams (apart from Spurs, till Sunday ... their Anfield record is dreadful), so if that was mirrored next season (by him carrying on in the same way he's started) then they'd finish with less points than they have this season.

So I accept your analysis (it's a week or three since I last did the sums), but it was hardly a laughable statement in how it was said.

As I said in another post in the last few days, I'm not expecting Liverpool to win the league next year - but at the same time I really wouldn't be surprised if they do (which I'd say of Utd, Chelsea, Arsenal, & Shitty too). It's all second-guessing anyway until we get to see who they each sign and how they gel with the other players.

[eFestivals]

http://www.skysports.com/story/0,19528,11667_6817025,00.html' rel="external nofollow">

Five game ban for Ferguson

that made a change too.

They need to keep it up.

[eFestivals]

The inconsistency is the laughable part.

What inconsistency?

Fergie is consistently trying to influence refs. Carlo isn't.

There's the consistency.

[pink_triangle]

As I said in another post in the last few days, I'm not expecting Liverpool to win the league next year - but at the same time I really wouldn't be surprised if they do (which I'd say of Utd, Chelsea, Arsenal, & Shitty too). It's all second-guessing anyway until we get to see who they each sign and how they gel with the other players.

[ralph250]

If he spends another £250M this summer, he might scrape 3rd next season.

[The Nal]

What inconsistency?

Fergie is consistently trying to influence refs. Carlo isn't.

There's the consistency.

Edited May 13, 2011 by The Nal

[Benj]

Which Liverpool fans are responsible for that comment then?

So I love the stupidity of Everton fans. Not only for stupidly thinking there's a Liverpool fan involved in that comment, but for stupidly thinking there's anything wrong with the comment itself.

Cos if you care to examine what the comment says, you'll get to find that there's absolutely nothing that's wrong with it. *IF* he carries on as he has he WILL win the league - it only takes Utd to drop a couple of points from what they've got this season.

[Benj]

1) He's not a Liverpool fan.

2) He did say if he carries on the way he started. Which is a big ask, but qualifies the statement.

3) You lot would f**king love to be in our position.

Edited May 13, 2011 by Benj

[eFestivals]

So Utd will have more points unless they drop some AND I guess Chelsea too considering they've got more points than LFC since he joined

Chelsea's points average across the season is lower than Liverpool's under Kenny.

Given that we're talking of a full season for Kenny to win or not win the league, then that's the best comparison there is (tho not perfect, I know), rather than done your way.

Considering how bad you think the Utd team is at the mo and how Chelsea have had a pretty poor year by their standards too and are likely to strengthen, I'd say he needs to do more than simply carry on

It might be the case that he needs to do more. But then again if he does similar then Utd and Chelsea will have less points next season than they do this season, if everything else were equal.

[Benj]

It might be the case that he needs to do more. But then again if he does similar then Utd and Chelsea will have less points next season than they do this season, if everything else were equal.

[ralph250]

Yes, yes, sorry forgot, we ALL know you're not a Liverpool fan.

So Utd will have more points unless they drop some AND I guess Chelsea too considering they've got more points than LFC since he joined

Considering how bad you think the Utd team is at the mo and how Chelsea have had a pretty poor year by their standards too and are likely to strengthen, I'd say he needs to do more than simply carry on

[pink_triangle]

Out of interest does anyone know if theres any statistics that suggest teams who finish a season well like liverpool are more likely to start the next season well, than other teams in similar league positions with worse form the season before. I cant remember off the top of my heads any comparible situations. I know everton tend to finish the season well and start the next one poorly, while charlton used to be the exact opposite but not sure if theres a general pattern.

[eFestivals]

Well, lets just hope he gets to play a load of teams with nothing to play for all of next season too

Yeah - Utd, Chelsea, Arsenal and City all had nothing to play for when they all dropped points to Liverpool.

Fair play, their form has been good of late, its under very, very different circumstances than that which they'll face next season though.

not really. The only difference is that they'll have to ensure that it's not a temporary run of form but instead the season's form.

There's no way of anyone knowing which of those this recent run has been. We get to find out next season.

It looks positive for you them and its certainly not beyond them to win the title in the next 3 years, I suspect it depends as much on what Chelsea, Utd and City do over the period and also very much on what Liverpool do in the transfer market this summer and beyond. I think they team they have now (with the addition of Suarez and Carrol) is just about good enough to try for 4th over the course of the season

While of course what any team is able to achieve is dependent on the strength of the teams they have to play against, it's also true that the teams at the top don't really get any better, they merely maintain their strength at around the same level with players they buy.

Having said that, there's scope for smallish improvements for Utd and Chelsea, and slightly bigger ones for Arsenal and City - but which would only raise them up to around the level of Utd and Chelsea (which then impacts on the points that Utd & Chelsea might get).

I agree that with the team they have now Liverpool are likely to be quite happy if they got 4th next season. Expecting more would be an expectation too far - but that doesn't mean that getting more looks beyond them.

But aside from City who just about everyone expects to spend big, it's Liverpool's increase in strength that's likely to stand out the most I reckon, because just about everyone thinks that there's huge weaknesses in the current squad.

How much Liverpool strengthens we can only guess at right now. Just about everyone expects them to make at least one big buy, but they might perhaps make 5 or 6.

[eFestivals]

The Merseyside derby was at Anfield. The Liverpool-Utd game also, and whilst they outplayed us on the day and thoroughly deserved the result, we had Rio, Vidic, Park, Valencia all absent which we might not next season. Ferguson has generally had Dalglish's number in the head to heads aswell though all that can change. (across all Dalglish's clubs, Dalglish 5 wins, Ferguson 10, 9 draws).

I always say that in games like the merseyside derby, each team's strength on paper or form beforehand doesn't count for too much - they're played on a different basis to most matches. (Plus of course it's not like Kenny had anything much in team preparation for that match).

And while Fergie might have a good record against Dalglish, some of that is his time at Newc - which I'd say doesn't count for too much either.

But of any manager, Fergie is the one who is likely to have his number, I agree.

[pink_triangle]

But aside from City who just about everyone expects to spend big, it's Liverpool's increase in strength that's likely to stand out the most I reckon, because just about everyone thinks that there's huge weaknesses in the current squad.

How much Liverpool strengthens we can only guess at right now. Just about everyone expects them to make at least one big buy, but they might perhaps make 5 or 6.

[ralph250]

One thing that will come out of City hitting the goldmine and Liverpool getting Kenny back, is that whilst I know there will be some who'll say if United were to win the CL, that it'd be a good time for Fergie to bow out, I can't see Fergie shirking the challenge and retiring for another few years, health permitting.

[eFestivals]

Out of interest does anyone know if theres any statistics that suggest teams who finish a season well like liverpool are more likely to start the next season well, than other teams in similar league positions with worse form the season before. I cant remember off the top of my heads any comparible situations. I know everton tend to finish the season well and start the next one poorly, while charlton used to be the exact opposite but not sure if theres a general pattern.

while I don't have data on that, I'd say it's the wrong thing to look at anyway.

I'd say that it'd be more relevant to look at teams who have had a big improvement under a new manager and how much that's sustained.

[eFestivals]

I disagree Neil I expect Chelsea to spend huge as well. Chelsea will have a new high profile manager who will probably demand big signings. I think abramovic will have reflected on the champions league and feel a bit of an overhaul is needed.

Oh, I expect Chelsea to spend big, but I don't expect much of an improvement by them doing so - it'll be mainly replacing one very good player with another very good player. And those players will be bought on the basis of their names, not on what the team might need or how they might improve it.

City have a much greater scope to improve via their buys - but I don't expect the level of improvement to match the spend they make if they stick with Mancini.

[ralph250]

I always say that in games like the merseyside derby, each team's strength on paper or form beforehand doesn't count for too much - they're played on a different basis to most matches. (Plus of course it's not like Kenny had anything much in team preparation for that match).

And while Fergie might have a good record against Dalglish, some of that is his time at Newc - which I'd say doesn't count for too much either.

[strummer77]

1)oh yeah, forgot, of course he's not

2)If he carries on the way he started sounds like they'll be 2nd or 3rd

3)Too right, 5th is better than 7th

[ralph250]

Redknapp laughs off SAF punishment for praising Webb, then agrees Webb IS the best ref around. Ref for Spurs v Liverpool? Howard Webb. Er...

[Benj]

Yeah - Utd, Chelsea, Arsenal and City all had nothing to play for when they all dropped points to Liverpool.

[The Nal]

[eFestivals]

Everton tough to know how much prep Kenny had, as above, whilst he'd only been there just over a week, that was his 3rd game in charge, not 1st. He would've chosen the team etc. Had the sametime really that any manager with 3 games in a week would have to prepare tactical discussions. He watched every Liverpool game prior to his appointment anyways so not like he was going in without knowledge of the players, strengths/weaknesses etc. As it was, from what I recall, they took a 2-0 lead and collapsed a bit after the first Everton goal.

Said before, but think Clarke deserves a lot of credit aswell.

I agree about Clarke - great appointment that one.

While Everton was his 3rd game, by standard ways of operation he'd have had just two training sessions between his appointment and that game - with one of those sessions likely to have concentrated on the Blackpool game (there was no time for any training before the Utd cup game).

While three games in a week isn't unusual, it's also usual for the players to know the manager and the manager the players (know them as in being used to working with them and training them, rather than just watching from the sides). This is why I think it's a little unfair to take those first two league games into account too much. But if Liverpool were playing Everton tomorrow in that game - and without the good form of Everton lately - I'd still be a long way confident of a Liverpool win.