Weather thread 2011

[Steve P]

Not when you're trying to skin up!

[tinselmouse]

I have to say that I am taking no notice of these weather forecasts until Countryfile on Sunday. It seems that every day, every hour the forecasts change. I have now bought clothes for every eventuality, but still holding out hope for good weather.

[Storm_NL]

Take one for the team...man up!

[matt_berr]

I know nothing about weather forecasting but...

if you remove the rain from the latest GFS model which they have got wrong due to the butterfly effect (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect)

then the high pressure building and the lack of southerly low pressure systems means we should be dry thursday onwards, this high pressure will push the northerly lows into scotland and northern england (they can take one for the team) and glasto will be breezy with a bit of cloud, maybe a touch of drizzle but also plenty of sunshine.

If everyone comes prepared - wellies, waterproofs and something to sit on - then this is not bad weather, its just weather - its why glastonbury is sat on a working farm in lush green countryside

enjoy

[devonhammer]

JackOne: despite the GFS op runs and ensembles largely going for dry weather, after the Wednesday, the threat of low pressure from the ECM mean a 6 on a scale of 0=dustbowl and 10=mudbath.

GFS: Lots of rain this Friday and then showers (including over the festival weekend. Hopeful signs in a much bigger high over the Azores and a weakening Greenland high. All to play for.

TWO: Lots of rain this Friday. Dry except shower on Sunday afternoon.

Dutch: Rain

Meteo: Lots of rain this Friday/Saturday. Dry with very occasional showers.

PositiveWeather Solutions: All in all, a mud bath scenario seems increasingly likely, which will mean the ground will be very much needing its break in 2012. Positive? I'll give you positive!.

GFS Ensemble: Lots of rain this Friday. Doesn't look that bad for festival. Most models are pretty much dry.

Met Office: It remains changeable through the rest of the period with further showers or rain likely to affect many parts of the country. Not a daily update yet.

ECM: Not too good.

Norwegians: Lots of rain on Wednesday. Showers on Thursday and Friday morning (that's as far as it goes)

Normal caveats apply:

1) I know a bit about weather, not a lot about weather

2) You can't predict the weather with any accuracy for more than three days

3) Based on Point 1, Point 2 might be incorrect

Edited June 15, 2011 by devonhammer

[tinselmouse]

I know nothing about weather forecasting but...

if you remove the rain from the latest GFS model which they have got wrong due to the butterfly effect (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect)

then the high pressure building and the lack of southerly low pressure systems means we should be dry thursday onwards, this high pressure will push the northerly lows into scotland and northern england (they can take one for the team) and glasto will be breezy with a bit of cloud, maybe a touch of drizzle but also plenty of sunshine.

If everyone comes prepared - wellies, waterproofs and something to sit on - then this is not bad weather, its just weather - its why glastonbury is sat on a working farm in lush green countryside

enjoy

[devonhammer]

All down to who you trust. Generally the weather community tend to go with TWO, Met Office and ECM. It's too far out for a proper Met Office, so I'd go for one win and one loss. I'd start to discount GFS as better models come in, but take note of the ensemble as that's twenty slightly different runs.

On that basis, it will almost certainly rain on Friday/Saturday this week and probably a lot. There will probably be some showers after that. For the festival we are most likely to see occasional showers, but there is a reasonable chance that these will be very few and a chance that it will be dry.

Edited June 15, 2011 by devonhammer

[doogie]

Unisys charts are looking better as the week goes on.

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/gfsx.php?inv=0&plot=hght&region=eu&t=9p

My interpretation is for a damp Wednesday and cool for the time of year.

Steadily improving with minimal rain on Thursday.

No rain and slightly warmer on the Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

You can twist if you like, but I'll stick with this.

[tinselmouse]

All down to who you trust. Generally the weather community tend to go with TWO, Met Office and ECM. It's too far out for a proper Met Office, so I'd go for one win and one loss. I'd start to discount GFS as better models come in, but take note of the ensemble as that's twenty slightly different runs.

On that basis, it will almost certainly rain on Friday/Saturday this week and probably a lot. There will probably be some showers after that. For the festival we are most likely to see occasional showers, but there is a reasonable chance that these will be very few and a chance that it will be dry.

[Lentus]

I can feel my optimism decreasing, I need a pick up, something. I know its not looking really really bad BUT SOMEONE NEEDS TO DO SOMETHING I DONT WANT TO GO TO THE DARK SIDE!!

[General Lee]

I hate this thread. The highs, the lows - I'm not sure I can take any more!

[tinselmouse]

I can feel my optimism decreasing, I need a pick up, something. I know its not looking really really bad BUT SOMEONE NEEDS TO DO SOMETHING I DONT WANT TO GO TO THE DARK SIDE!!

[Monkismo]

I'm an optimistic guyand very much a member of the NFR NFC crew but a wet Wednesday would be a disaster for me. I'm relying on my trolley to transport everything in with me as I have a particularly cumbersome tent, a bad case of sciatica and a girlfriend who caves under the weight of an empty rucksack!! If i can't wheel that in on hard ground I'll be royally pissed off!

That said, I've just bought a new pack a mac and my girlfriend's bought some Hunters after already ordering some other wellies which needed to be sent back (long story). This whole debacle must go some way to ensuring some sun...please??

[devonhammer]

I can feel my optimism decreasing, I need a pick up, something. I know its not looking really really bad BUT SOMEONE NEEDS TO DO SOMETHING I DONT WANT TO GO TO THE DARK SIDE!!

[eFestivals]

2) You can't predict the weather with any accuracy for more than three days

while that's true, what can be predicted for much further in advance is what weather is coming, just not when it'll arrive.

So we're going to get all of the shit weather that's being predicted, it's simply the case that we don't know when we're going to get it. However, if it comes early then the ground is waterlogged before the fest (meaning that not much rain during the fest will turn things into a mudbath) and if it comes late then the ground is waterlogged during the fest.

Take your wellies.

[devonhammer]

For anyone interested, there's loads of links to weather charts here.

Probably the best site is Wetterzentralle, but that's in German and this provides links to the maps without the need to translate.

[devonhammer]

Here's some good predictions:

[devonhammer]

Edited June 15, 2011 by devonhammer

[devonhammer]

[Torcs4]

Take it one small step at a time. Just focus for now on it hopefully not raining while you're arriving and trying to pitch. The rest comes later, one step at a time. And by the time you've finished pitching, you'll probably be drunk anyway, so from then on... whatever.

[mcmenace]

[strudders]

Take your wellies.

[Leela33]

The UK weather web site says dry on Thursday & Friday with light rain until then.

Come on folks where are all the Germans!!!!

[Lentus]

more of that Devonhammer please I like red and orange (I think, is that right) I know the weather is meant to be rubbish this weekend but it can all change right?

[THEBOILERMAN]

IT WILL BE DRY IT WILL BE SUNNY IT WILL NOT RA!N

IT WILL BE FU(KING HOT

NFR NFC.