Weather thread 2011

[JoeyT]

From Netweather:

Into June, I expect that the month will start off with changeable westerlies, but there are strong signals that the jet will largely run out of steam, which will enable high pressure to develop in the wake of one of the Atlantic weather systems. As a result, the second week of June is most likely to be sunny and very warm (possibly hot in southern areas) across most of the country with cloud and rain confined to the far north-west of Scotland, as the sort of anticyclonic pattern that we saw in mid to late March and much of April 2011, with extensive high pressure over central and western Europe, is expected to re-establish following the relatively unsettled May.

Overview

I think my original CET prediction of 12.6C for May, with mean temperatures about 1C above the long-term mean, is still looking feasible, although if anything it may turn out a little warmer than expected, especially in the south. The period from mid May to mid June will also be warmer than average with departures of 1 to 2C, by both day and night across northern districts, while southern districts will see a larger departure by day than by night.

The showers during the first half of the month did not extend to southern and eastern districts as often as I expected, so it's looking set to be another very dry month across eastern, central and southern England with no significant rain in sight into early to mid June either, apart from the possibility of localised thunderstorms if the anticipated hot second week of June occurs. However, northern and western Scotland are likely to be slightly wetter than average during the period. England and Wales rainfall from mid-May to mid-June is likely to be about 50% below normal.

Sunshine will be quite abundant across the UK as a whole, especially as we get into June. The period from mid-May to mid-June is likely to have close to average sunshine in western Scotland and Northern Ireland but above average sunshine elsewhere with excesses of 30% over many parts of central, southern and eastern England, and about 10-20% elsewhere.

Sounds promising....

[Glastofari]

love it

[danbailey80]

JACKONE chat on forum...

devonhammer, on 18 May 2011 - 09:11 , said:

What do you make of Stewart Rampling's Summer forecast and how will that affect your Glastonbury forecasts?

This is very good news, both in terms of the weather for Glastonbury and for Summer generally. I rate Stewart'a forecasts very highly as they gave been very accurate in the past.

Interitus, on 17 May 2011 - 17:39 , said:

What's the big deal with Glastonbury?

Not stirring, just wondering why it gets a dedicated sticky when there are literally scores of festivals.

I started doing this a few years ago, and I have always got a lot of feedback in relation to this. As a result this has kept going.

There are other music festival but not many have such a dedicated following.

If you want others done, please say which ones, and if there is enough interest we will starts thread, and certainly have an automated forecast for the major festivals.

The next update covering the latest CFS news will be issued later Sunday, together with a look at Stewart's forecast.

[rubenz]

Cloud cover is still demanded!

[Douzeper]

Just make sure to apply plenty of sunblock...

[Mr Splodge]

Jackone just done his update

[Alcatraz]

From JACKONE:

Week 2 Update

Firstly by looking at the CFS charts.

Sunday 15 May :- A very unsettled spell of weather with Low Pressure anchored over the UK, for the 5 days, giving large amounts of rainfall for Glastonbury and indeed for much of the UK, Temps in the Mid teens.

Monday 16 May :- Low Pressure to the East on Wednesday, but High pressure edges in from the North for a few days, before low pressure edging in from the west. Some rain on the Wednesday, some showery rain for a few days, before more general rain edging in from the west on Sunday. With winds from the north, temps cool in the low to mid teens.

Tuesday 17 May :- Low Pressure on the Wednesday and Thursday, giving some heavy rain. High Pressure ridging in for southern areas of the UK from Friday onwards, so staying largely dry over Glastonbury. Temps largely in the mid teens.

Wednesday 18 May :- High pressure to start over northern areas, with low pressure to the South East, slowly pressure building for all areas from the west. Rain fringing Glastonbury for Thursday and Friday, but slowly drying up fro Friday and into the weekend. Temps in the mid to high teens.

Thursday 19 May:- Not Available

Friday 20 May:- High Pressure over the UK for much of the period, mostly dry but the chance of some showery rain over the Thursday. Temps in the low 20s.

Saturday 21 May :- Low Pressure over the UK on the Wednesday, High Pressure slowly ridging up from the South West from the Thursday. Patchy rain for Southern areas on Wednesday and Thursday, mostly dry after this. Temps generally in the mid teens.

So six forecasts issued this week, one goes for a washout festival, one for a dry and warm one. The remaining 4 go for a mix of unsettled weather and slightly more settled conditions, with the unsettled conditions largely over the first few days, and gradually turning more settled from the south west over the weekend.

Net Weather Summer Forecast

http://www.netweathe...-forecast;sess= is the forecast, and it goes for a largely dry period of weather for most of June, this is very encouraging news, and somewhat counters the thoughts of CFS above. Hopefully as we move closer to the festival period and into June, we will see the weather generally improving and also the longer term weather forecasts falling more into line of the dry and hot pattern suggested by Stewart.

[LondonTom]

Just make sure to apply plenty of sunblock...

[guypjfreak]

From JACKONE:

Week 2 Update

Firstly by looking at the CFS charts.

Sunday 15 May :- A very unsettled spell of weather with Low Pressure anchored over the UK, for the 5 days, giving large amounts of rainfall for Glastonbury and indeed for much of the UK, Temps in the Mid teens.

Monday 16 May :- Low Pressure to the East on Wednesday, but High pressure edges in from the North for a few days, before low pressure edging in from the west. Some rain on the Wednesday, some showery rain for a few days, before more general rain edging in from the west on Sunday. With winds from the north, temps cool in the low to mid teens.

Tuesday 17 May :- Low Pressure on the Wednesday and Thursday, giving some heavy rain. High Pressure ridging in for southern areas of the UK from Friday onwards, so staying largely dry over Glastonbury. Temps largely in the mid teens.

Wednesday 18 May :- High pressure to start over northern areas, with low pressure to the South East, slowly pressure building for all areas from the west. Rain fringing Glastonbury for Thursday and Friday, but slowly drying up fro Friday and into the weekend. Temps in the mid to high teens.

Thursday 19 May:- Not Available

Friday 20 May:- High Pressure over the UK for much of the period, mostly dry but the chance of some showery rain over the Thursday. Temps in the low 20s.

Saturday 21 May :- Low Pressure over the UK on the Wednesday, High Pressure slowly ridging up from the South West from the Thursday. Patchy rain for Southern areas on Wednesday and Thursday, mostly dry after this. Temps generally in the mid teens.

So six forecasts issued this week, one goes for a washout festival, one for a dry and warm one. The remaining 4 go for a mix of unsettled weather and slightly more settled conditions, with the unsettled conditions largely over the first few days, and gradually turning more settled from the south west over the weekend.

Net Weather Summer Forecast

http://www.netweathe...-forecast;sess= is the forecast, and it goes for a largely dry period of weather for most of June, this is very encouraging news, and somewhat counters the thoughts of CFS above. Hopefully as we move closer to the festival period and into June, we will see the weather generally improving and also the longer term weather forecasts falling more into line of the dry and hot pattern suggested by Stewart.

[Alcatraz]

old son how can you say that that is encouraging it mentions the R word for every day on that

[poromenos]

High pressure is good and low pressure is bad,right?

I have to say i have a pretty good record when it comes to the weather and rain ...

I am from Greece(empire of the sun etc...) and i ve been in UK many times before

2008 First days of July @ london-amazing sunshine !

2009 i was at reading festival,almost rain-free

Last year i was at Glasto-thats why we all had these amazing weather-i brought it from Greece

And this year i am coming again...

Edited May 22, 2011 by poromenos

[caroldecker]

From the Met Office website

UK Outlook for Monday 6 Jun 2011 to Monday 20 Jun 2011:

For this period, rainfall amounts look to be close to or below average for the time of year for most parts of the UK. Sunshine is likely to be above average for the most part and this will help temperatures to be above average, or even well above the average in some areas, for much of the period, especially in the south.

Updated: 1208 on Sun 22 May 2011

I know this only takes us to the monday before even traveling down, but its still promising!

[Alcatraz]

From the Met Office website

UK Outlook for Monday 6 Jun 2011 to Monday 20 Jun 2011:

For this period, rainfall amounts look to be close to or below average for the time of year for most parts of the UK. Sunshine is likely to be above average for the most part and this will help temperatures to be above average, or even well above the average in some areas, for much of the period, especially in the south.

Updated: 1208 on Sun 22 May 2011

I know this only takes us to the monday before even traveling down, but its still promising!

[titusbungle]

Hottest summer ever?

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/247955/247955

[bennyboi]

Hottest summer ever?

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/247955/247955

[BuriedBones]

I am not afraid of a spot of mud whose really the wimp

[Guest blackcockerel]

Anyone who wants rain needs shooting. I'd take hot over wet every single time.

[ukslim]

Anyone who wants rain needs shooting. I'd take hot over wet every single time.

Edited May 23, 2011 by ukslim

[Guest blackcockerel]

I never said that was what I meant to be fair. If it was a choice between coping with heat or getting wet, I'd choose being hot. 2009 would be ideal for me, rather than 2010, which was uncomfortable at times, but much more bearable than 2007

[Pinhead]

After 15 years of looking at the weather running up to the festival, and living in that part of the West Country for 30 years, my 2p worth is that I think it will be largely dry, but with the odd patch of drizzle, perhaps a shower to begin with, otherwise mostly overcast and occasionally blustery with perhaps a day worth of broken sunshine between fronts later on. Not too bad then really - thing to watch for I reckon will be colder nights - average temps are already down this year.

Edited May 23, 2011 by Pinhead

[devonhammer]

Mmm, but "hot" isn't the opposite of "wet", and "dry" isn't the opposite of "cold".

Temperature vs Wetness by ukslim, on Flickr

Green is good. Light green is better. Amber is in-between. Red is DO NOT WANT. I was tempted to put 2010 further to the right.

I want the temperature to be just right, and for it to be dry.

Saying "I'll take hot over wet" is like saying "I'll have stale cake as long as the tea's not cold".

[ukslim]

If it was a choice between coping with heat or getting wet, I'd choose being hot.

[Guest blackcockerel]

I disagree, I'd take hot and wet over cold and wet, cold and wet are the worst Glasto conditions I've experienced.

[t0paz]

The BBC monthly update is in. Only goes up to the week before, but hey

Monday 6 June 2011 to Sunday 19 June 2011

Sunshine in store

Warm, sunny weather looks likely to take hold across the UK for the middle of June. Perhaps this will be rather welcome in the north and west but for anyone hoping for rain, the totals look likely to be around or below the amounts we would normally expect at this time of year.

[Guest blackcockerel]

Excellent