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Weather thread 2011

Guest Paul ™

By Guest Paul ™
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Cooter Rising Star

Cooter

Posted
Posted

I guess, sorry forecast, that the weather for Glasto will be average temps early in the week, risk of slight showers throughout the week but with sunshine dominating. I rate this as a 7 out of 10. Apart from Tuesday and Wednesday wellies won't be needed and temps will rise higher into the low 20's as the weekend draws to an end.

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THEBOILERMAN Collaborator

THEBOILERMAN

Posted
Posted (edited)

I guess, sorry forecast, that the weather for Glasto will be average temps early in the week, risk of slight showers throughout the week but with sunshine dominating. I rate this as a 7 out of 10. Apart from Tuesday and Wednesday wellies won't be needed and temps will rise higher into the low 20's as the weekend draws to an end.

Edited by THEBOILERMAN
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LusciousLucy Newbie

LusciousLucy

Posted
Posted

My hap'eths worth.

Last year the weather did pretty much the same as what it is doing this weekend - Download weekend, sunny sometimes and then chucking it down horribly the next. What was Glasto like 2 weekends later?

I thank you!

Fingers crossed there is the tiniest hope that the same weather pattern will repeat itself.

I dont get where this big '33c by the end of the month' prediction came about 2 weeks ago. I reckon it was the Mail having another slow day and made it up the gets! <_<

I'm ignoring all weather reports until 7.52pm on Sunday June 19th.

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scorp Newbie

scorp

Posted
Posted

My mate works for the MetOffice doing forecasting for the RAF, I saw him at the weekend and was trying to get a sly prediction out of him. His words 'only an idiot would but any faith in a forecast for more than 3 days in advance' anyone who says to they can do more than that is lying, even the 5 day ones are complete rubbish beyond the third day. If it happens to be correct, its just fluke.

So yeah, it is pretty pointless, but still quite fun, and there's always hope!

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psychology Newbie

psychology

Posted
Posted

My hap'eths worth.

Last year the weather did pretty much the same as what it is doing this weekend - Download weekend, sunny sometimes and then chucking it down horribly the next. What was Glasto like 2 weekends later?

I thank you!

Fingers crossed there is the tiniest hope that the same weather pattern will repeat itself.

I dont get where this big '33c by the end of the month' prediction came about 2 weeks ago. I reckon it was the Mail having another slow day and made it up the gets! <_<

I'm ignoring all weather reports until 7.52pm on Sunday June 19th.

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LostRiot Newbie

LostRiot

Posted
Posted

That's not stopping the metoffice from stating:

UK Outlook for Friday 24 Jun 2011 to Friday 8 Jul 2011:

Fairly changeable weather is expected to continue, especially across northern and western parts of the United Kingdom, where showers or rain are most likely. The south and east should see more in the way of drier and brighter conditions but there is still a chance of a little rain at times. Temperatures are likely to remain close to average in most areas, but will probably remain a little below average where any rain persists in the north and west. However, some southern and eastern parts of the UK may continue to see above average temperatures at times.

Updated: 1142 on Thu 9 Jun 2011

now, glasto is in the west, but not as west as west wales :-) - but it's also in the south...

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Filthy Apprentice

Filthy

Posted
Posted (edited)

This is clearly the best theme tune ever, they're "Protecting earths entire galaxy" which luckily includes glastonbury (just) and they're making a whirlwind attack position. Whirlwinds are normally the result of hot weather. And if that wasn't enough the five of them together form a firey phoenix. Job done

Edited by Filthy
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4AssedMonkey Veteran

4AssedMonkey

Posted
Posted

Seriously boys & girls, bottom of page 2, for shame.

The pattern of the weather is so similar to last year in the build up that I can't help but think we're in for a blimmin' scorcher again. Like Lucy says, Download was a mixture of heavy downpours and bright sun last year and that's what they look like they've got again. IIRC we had a high lingering on the periphery last year out in the Azores which GFS stated could go either way and it went the right way at the right time.

Keep positive. Think Germany Flapjacky thoughts.

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JoeyT Veteran

JoeyT

Posted
Posted

If anyone's interested here's Jackone's latest update from a year ago:

Now followed by the runs of Wednesday 9th

00Hz High Pressure in control for much of next week up to next weekend, but slowly losing control allowing a Low Pressure system to sit bang on top of the UK for the start of the festival, giving some very heavy rain at times, and mud bath potential.

06Hz High Pressure over the UK slowing diminishing on the weekend before the festival, but this edging away to the SW, allowing slightly lower pressure and the potential for some showers for the first few days of the festival.

12Hz Unsettled the weekend before the festival, but signs of High Pressure building to the west of the UK, this ridging across all parts by Wednesday so a dry first 3 days of the festival would be likely. Temps likely to be in high teens. However the Pressure ensemble tends not to support this, with pressure dropping as we move into the Glastonbury week.

18Hz

The High pressure tends to stay a little further west on this and never really dominates the scene over the UK, and by the start of the festival, it remains only sightly to the west of the UK, however that is enough to allow low pressure to push over the UK and give a wet start to the festival.

In many ways the weather pattern up until the weekend before Glastonbury is firming up, with settled weather for much of next week.

However that is where the confidence starts to really fade away. there is the chance of the High pressure slowly diminishing and edging back South West, with an unsettled period of weather following this either with rain or showers is possibly the most likely outcome, But todays 12Hz looks a little bit more promising.

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devonhammer Collaborator

devonhammer

Posted
Posted (edited)

JackOne: On this scale of 0=dustbowl and 10=washout I would so for a 6, as overall there remains a higher possibility of a damp or wet festival. However, solely based on today's runs, it would be more neutral at a 5. :(

GFS: Rain Wednesday and Thursday, dry Friday and Saturday. Greenland high still dominant, so likely rain on Sunday. :mellow:

TWO: Dry Wed, Fri. Sat, wet Thu :)

Dutch:Light rain on Wed and Thu (that's as far as it goes) :mellow:

Meteo: Light rain Wed afternoon and Thu (that's as far as it goes) :mellow:

PositiveWeather Solutions: No update

GFS Ensemble: No consistency (but that's what you expect from an ensemblethis far out)

Met Office: Dry then rain(not a true daily update yet)

ECM: Not yet in range

Norwegians: Not yet in range

Normal caveats apply:

1) I know a bit about weather, not a lot about weather

2) You can't predict the weather with any accuracy for more than three days

3) Based on Point 1, Point 2 might be incorrect

Edited by devonhammer
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