Weather thread 2011

[MyTwistedWords]

[iwalker]

My somewhat unscientific prediction is we will be a bit wetter than 2008, which in the main was fairly agreeable.

[fugitive]

This looks alright to me. A weather report at this stage is only going to be about 30% accurate anyway, but I'm happy to look at this one all day:

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/14days.asp?zipcode=glastonbury

[devonhammer]

[Josepipe]

I've had just about enough of this defeatist spirit! Last year (under the guidance of the Wolf), we rallied in the face of bad forecasts and defeated the rain.

I've been looking through last year's thread and at this time there was still talk of rain on the weds, showers on the sat, and more rain on the sun.

I also posted this:

We shall go on to the end, we shall fight the r**n,

we shall fight r**n on the seas and oceans,

we shall fight r**n with growing confidence and growing strength in the air, we shall defend our Glastonbury, whatever the cost may be,

we shall fight r**n on the beaches (flagtopia),

we shall fight r**n on the landing grounds (car parks),

we shall fight in the fields and in the streets (main drag),

we shall fight in the hills (stone circle);

we shall never surrender!

Come on people, pull yoursleves together!

[HotChipWillBreakYourLegs]

Excerpt from Met Office monthly outlook:

Edited June 13, 2011 by HotChipWillBreakYourLegs

[devonhammer]

This looks alright to me. A weather report at this stage is only going to be about 30% accurate anyway, but I'm happy to look at this one all day:

http://www.metcheck....ode=glastonbury

[Glastoboy]

OK, so the forecasts are inching back in the right direction, but none of them see that big HIGH on the horizon that is going to knock these LOWS for six. Therfore I am scaring off the poor-mediocre reports with an army of Cantona's. In your face forecasters, the HIGH is coming, you just don't know it yet.

N.F.R N.F.C

Edited June 13, 2011 by Glastoboy

[roseyrose]

All I have bought so far is a sunhat, sunglasses and suncream...I didn't see there being any other scenario. And I WILL get to wear all three of them next week!!

I have also just bought a waterproof as a sacrifice to the weather gods. IF it does rain, I do not fancy spending the week in a sweaty sticky poncho, basically a damp binbag.

But it is not going to rain, so it is irrelevant!

[eoinca]

[rant]

Metcheck is both sh1te and started (possibly still owned?) by a convicted paedophile. They create illogical computer generated forecasts from GFS data and cannot be trusted.

They might be predicting glorious weather, but it's completely random. IIRC last week they were predicting 120mph winds.

Not saying that the weather will be bad, just saying that Metcheck is sh1te.

[/rant]

[SeanF]

Now listen here.

Yes, the site is muddy today, but you seriously shouldn't underestimate the power of the sun to dry things up very quickly. It's actually quite surprising how quickly it can happen, especially when there isn't 130,000 people around. For example, remember the winter snows? It literally thawed out in a few hours when the cold-snap finished. And that was with a sun that is far lower on the horizon.

Bottom line - it might be muddy now, but it genuinely only requires a few hours of sun to dry it out completely. And that's especially the case when we've had "drought" conditions up to now.

[eFestivals]

[rant]

Metcheck is both sh1te and started (possibly still owned?) by a convicted paedophile. They create illogical computer generated forecasts from GFS data and cannot be trusted.

They might be predicting glorious weather, but it's completely random. IIRC last week they were predicting 120mph winds.

Not saying that the weather will be bad, just saying that Metcheck is sh1te.

[/rant]

dunno about the first bit, but I've always found metcheck to be far more accurate than every other weather forecasting service.

All forecasting services use the same data, but not all of them put that data thru the same models.

[devonhammer]

Yesterday it chucked it down at the Canadian Grand Prix. Standout performances from three men who managed to find the dry lines in all that wet. Sebastian Vettel, Germany (led almost the entire race), Michael Schumaker, Germany (very nearly got a podium in a sub-standard car), Jensen Button, Somerset (winner). This goes to show that even when there's rain around, if you follow the German's for long enough, Somerset will find the dry bits and win.

[Lentus]

I've had just about enough of this defeatist spirit! Last year (under the guidance of the Wolf), we rallied in the face of bad forecasts and defeated the rain.

I've been looking through last year's thread and at this time there was still talk of rain on the weds, showers on the sat, and more rain on the sun.

I also posted this:

We shall go on to the end, we shall fight the r**n,

we shall fight r**n on the seas and oceans,

we shall fight r**n with growing confidence and growing strength in the air, we shall defend our Glastonbury, whatever the cost may be,

we shall fight r**n on the beaches (flagtopia),

we shall fight r**n on the landing grounds (car parks),

we shall fight in the fields and in the streets (main drag),

we shall fight in the hills (stone circle);

we shall never surrender!

Come on people, pull yoursleves together!

[tilt]

The Met Office 5 day for Glasto is looking OK, if it turns out to be accurate it should be enough to firm the ground up a bit, ready for the sun we're going to have over the festival

[devonhammer]

dunno about the first bit, but I've always found metcheck to be far more accurate than every other weather forecasting service.

All forecasting services use the same data, but not all of them put that data thru the same models.

[devonhammer]

All forecasting services use the same data.

[*Jen*]

This looks alright to me. A weather report at this stage is only going to be about 30% accurate anyway, but I'm happy to look at this one all day:

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/14days.asp?zipcode=glastonbury

[parsonjack]

Yesterday it chucked it down at the Canadian Grand Prix. Standout performances from three men who managed to find the dry lines in all that wet. Sebastian Vettel, Germany (led almost the entire race), Michael Schumaker, Germany (very nearly got a podium in a sub-standard car), Jensen Button, Somerset (winner). This goes to show that even when there's rain around, if you follow the German's for long enough, Somerset will find the dry bits and win.

[Aragorn]

another one here on the saide of metcheck is shite - consistently gets things wrong and there has been analysis done on said things.

anyway - on a positive note - the models are looking a little better for next week

[SeanF]

I like this weatherforecast

[scappaflow]

Not too fussed at the moment.

A bit of rain this week is good. Surely it can't fall forever, so will clear up next week.

Also temps, in high teens. Again, don't think this is a big problem. Was far too hot last year.

Roll on next Wed!

Now... where's my Wellies.

[parsonjack]

the sun has just come out in Bath...!!

NFRNFC

[ukslim]

Is there anywhere that holds various weather sources to account?

i.e. keeps a record of predicted weather versus actual weather, for various terms of forecast, and munges that into some kind of metric of how well they did?

[SeanF]

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk/BA4

...has improved since this morning. Even less rain on the wednesday a.m. this morning - from 4mm to 1.2mm (negligable rain basically).