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Weather thread 2011


Guest Paul ™

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latest GFS run is out - 00Z

It not as good as yesterdays runs but is an outlier for the amount of wetness on 23rd and pressure wise is in the minority with not too many of the other models agreeing with it for the start of the big G. Alot of models appear to be keen to have presssure at around 1020mb for wednesday

The EURO model for 00z is not out yet but tends to be more accurtae that the americano GFS

So still reasons to be positive I would say, the rollercoaster goes on !

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JackOne: On today runs, It is close between a 4 or 5, overall I will go for 5.5 as it is looking mostly dry after the Wednesday, but if it is wet in the build up to the festival, and on the Wednesday, will this mean wet and muddy conditions, even if it remains dry thereafter.

GFS: Rain this Friday then mostly dry in the run up except next Tuesday. Showers over the festival, but nothing heavy. All to play for..

TWO: Rain this Friday. No other serious rain in the run up. Dry festival.

Dutch: Showers untilFriday (that's as far as it goes)

Meteo: Rain this Saturday morning and Tuesday. Showers on Wednesday, otherwise dry.

PositiveWeather Solutions: No update.

GFS Ensemble: Rain this Fri/Sat and next Tuesday, then the majority of models have it dry. The Operational is the only one having substantial rain over the festival.

Met Office: Rain on Saturday and then risk of showers.

ECM: Same pattern of heavy rain Fri/Sat followed by showers, but dry for festival (only goes to the Friday, but there's a high building)

Norwegians: Fri/Sat this week have rain. Showers until Thursday next week (that's as far as it goes)

Normal caveats apply:

1) I know a bit about weather, not a lot about weather

2) You can't predict the weather with any accuracy for more than three days

3) Based on Point 1, Point 2 might be incorrect

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The models are starting to converge.

Don't worry if it chucks it down on Fri/Sat this week. That's looking pretty likely. Then we are likely to see showers, but nothing more and with sun and cloud, so we could be looking at 2008 scenario.

The test will be whether the drainage can cope with this weekend's rain.

Edited by devonhammer
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The models are starting to converge.

Don't worry if it chucks it down on Fri/Sat this week. That's looking pretty likely. Then we are likely to see showers, but nothing more and with sun and cloud, so we could be looking at 2008 scenario.

The test will be whether the drainage can cope with this weekend's rain.

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