Random Facts

[ampersand]

i reckon it's completely unmeasurable without going into epic research of cencus and death certificates etc which none of us have the abiltity or time to do. and i doubt anyone else has either. so not the best 'random fact' when it's probably just an 'incorrect theory'.

[worm]

less than 1.6 though? Even those crude estimates you gave of half of people dying in their first year had the average age at around 5.5

Edited March 2, 2011 by worm

[jump]

They were figurative. They weren't in any way to be taken literally.

The infant mortality rate pulls all life expactancy averages down, but remember that they don't apply to alive people. The average life of alive people cannot be affected by dead people remember. It has to be a total of their lives, not an average of life expectancy.

Edited March 2, 2011 by jump

[Purple Monkey]

It seems plausible. Averages give no indication of mode. We know that inequality was an even bigger problem in the dark ages and for every royal ponce that lived to a syphilitic old age there were hundreds of thousands of little baby skulls.

[worm]

Just googled it and it's 24.3.

[Ed209]

They were figurative. They weren't in any way to be taken literally.

The infant mortality rate pulls all life expactancy averages down, but remember that they don't apply to alive people. The average life of alive people cannot be affected by dead people remember. It has to be a total of their lives, not an average of life expectancy.

[worm]

It is though, the age of all the people in the world added up and divided by the amount of people is 24.3

[worm]

Really? You do suprise me

[ampersand]

Really? You do suprise me

The analysis I'm doing, using averages etc... is the right way to condense the problem and see if it sounds feasable.

If you add up the total number ages of alive people today, call it T say, then the average age is t=T/7billion.

i.e. T = t*7billion

If you add up all the ages at which the 100billion people died, Call it Y say, then the average is y = Y/100billion

i.e. Y = y*100billion

Therefore for T > Y we need

t*7billion > y*100billion

which is the same as requiring

y < t/15.

Its the same thing

(sorry to get geeky)

[jump]

So that isn't life expectancy then?

[worm]

If you add up all the ages at which the 100billion people died

[worm]

Yep, average or as close as it can be with people constantly being born/die.

[Ed209]

Which is what we're trying to ascertain.

And, to my point, will contain all of the infant mortalities the world has ever seen. Infant mortality figures are usually kept aside from life expectancy figures. So each era's average life expectancy (such as the medieval's 10ish or the nineteen century's 30ish) will not include infant mortality.

Edited March 2, 2011 by Ed209

[Ed209]

Sweet.

So 24.3 = t*7billion

Now we just need the other one.

Edited March 2, 2011 by Ed209

[worm]

I was never talking about expectancy!

[worm]

well actually its t = 24.3, T = 24.3*7billion

and by that maths I gave above y will have to be less 24.3/15 which is about 1.6, like I said ages ago ...

it all comes down to whether we think that's feasible or not

[Ed209]

Cool.

1.6 sound feasable to me, certainly. Mainly for the reasons I gave ages ago.

Isn't infant mortality the main demographic cause of death throughout human history. I remember it being massive on the pyramid in geography class, though that was the history of death according to different regions. Something like 95% in many third world nations.

[worm]

To have infant deaths you have to have adults of child bearing age conceiving and giving birth to these unfortunate babies.

Edited March 2, 2011 by worm

[Ed209]

Which is about 9.

The further you go back and the more diseased the era is, the more likely the age of conception will be lowered, the higher the rate of infant mortality and reproduction of babies will be, and the lower the average life span across a far smaller populas will occur.

Edited March 2, 2011 by Ed209

[ampersand]

worm, your arse is on a plate over there!

[worm]

stop trying to defend the indefensible.

[worm]

worm, your arse is on a plate over there!

[ampersand]

Man Utd don't win every game

[worm]

Update:

Estimates for infant mortality suggest that around 40% of those who have ever lived did not survive beyond one year.

And:

Life expectancy averages only about ten years for most of human history

Taken from the Paleodemographer Haub.

[worm]

true. i'd drop this one now though. ed clearly knows his shit when it comes to numbers