The Dirty Independence Question

[Kyelo]

So the last couple of days it has been all over the media...

BBC - http://www.bbc.co.uk...otland-16478121

The Independent - http://www.independe...dy-6287582.html

Huffington Post - http://www.huffingto...ref=uk-politics

etc etc so just wondering what you lot think about it?

[Uncle Liam]

Well, I'm all for it.

[5co77ie]

Do we (the English) get to vote if we want to keep Scotland too? I see the price of Shortbread, Irn Bru, and Scotch escalating! does this mean all our Scottish MPs get repatriated too? Along with all the Gold Olympic medals for the Great Britain Squad winners who are Scottish - that wouldn't leave us many, and Murray's just won a major tennis title we have to keep him until he wins Wimbledon

Edited January 10, 2012 by 5co77ie

[eFestivals]

So the last couple of days it has been all over the media...

BBC - http://www.bbc.co.uk...otland-16478121

The Independent - http://www.independe...dy-6287582.html

Huffington Post - http://www.huffingto...ref=uk-politics

etc etc so just wondering what you lot think about it?

It's Scotland's mistake to make for themselves, nowt to do with me.

Why do I say 'mistake'? Cos it won't bring Scotland the riches that Scotland likes to believe it will. Even if they got all of the oil wealth (which they won't) the impact of every UK govt service (tax offices, military bases, etc) that's currently in Scotland moving back south will cripple the Scottish economy.

[5co77ie]

I'm not sure it's all Scotland's mistake to make for themselves - remember it was David Cameron who headed up the Democracy Commission five years ago, when incidentally (correction:) 5 of 23 of the cabinet then where Scottish as was the Prime Minister, and remember the Labour party has much more votes in Scotland - it's all part of the Tory master plan.

Edited January 10, 2012 by 5co77ie

[Rufus Gwertigan]

Presuming they stay in the EU at least their universities will be unable to charge English students higher tuition fees than everyone else ;-). Presume Student Loans will move from Glasgow as well.

[t8yman]

a big question, one I was considering starting a thread on myself yesterday.

I love scotland, I married a scot, and have some great friends up there that I have met over the last 18 years, and have spent at least a year of my life up there over those years.

I heard a man on the radio yesterday describe the SNP as "the nastiest kind of seperatists at heart" yeasterday, and whilst that is a rather harsh genrealisation to make, I have witnessed some quite nasty anti English behaviour whilst up there. the vast vast majority of scots I meet are fantastic people.

I do however- fail to see what scotland would truly achieve from becoming a seperate country. they will need to set up and finance their own NHS, HMRC (i know the HQ is in cumbernauld anyway), education system, prison service, border controls, police service, DSS, etc etc etc, and whilst that might do nicely for the employment figures I truly fail to see how a country with such a small, widely spread population could finance such an infrastructure?

I'm prepared to be educated/better informed on the subject, and freely admit I only grasp the barest of understandings of the subject, but please - be my guest - argue the case for total independance - I am here to be converted.

I seriously dont see how gas/oil/fishing will cover all of that.

as a slightly related aside - my father in law didnt realise that we pay for prescriptions in England, and I reckon that would be one of the first things to go if Salmond gets his way.

[Katster]

as a slightly related aside - my father in law didnt realise that we pay for prescriptions in England

I didn't realise that they don't pay for them in Scotland!

[5co77ie]

I still say this all about politics - there are 41 elected Labour MPs and a single Conservative elected in Scotland - that's 10% of the total House Of Commons Labour seats, and nearly a third of their majority - Cameron has always since the Democracy Commission wanted to try and get these seats removed by the next election to put the Tories closer to a majority.

[t8yman]

I still say this all about politics - there are 41 elected Labour MPs and a single Conservative elected in Scotland - that's 10% of the total House Of Commons Labour seats, and nearly a third of their majority - Cameron has always since the Democracy Commission wanted to try and get these seats removed by the next election to put the Tories closer to a majority.

a cynical view, and not one I disagree with entirely to be honest, but its a pretty heavy legacy to leave behind.

Blair is a war criminal, and apparently sleeps well in his bed at night, but to be the man who knowingly condemned one of our closest neighbours to a complete shitstorm isnt a decision I would take lightly.

[eFestivals]

I didn't realise that they don't pay for them in Scotland!

Scotland gets a bigger payout from the tax coffers per-person that lives in Scotland than is allocated to the people who live in England.

They get that payout on the basis that because of Scotland's size and its less dense population of the coiunty, its infrastructure costs are higher ... but with free prescriptions and free (or cheaper?) Uni places its costs seemingly aren't as high as the payout covers.

Anyway, as an independent country Scotland will loss that tax bonus, and have to finance everything itself - while also losing a significant amount of employment that it currently has with things that service the whole of the UK (tax offices, military bases, and other things).

I can't see how the numbers will add up as the SNP claims they do so that Scotland won't be adversely affected.

[Kyelo]

For me I can't see how Scotland wouldn't manage, many similar sized nations manage just fine(New Zealand, Norway etc)and over the last 50 years dozens of nations have reclaimed their sovereignty and have never gone back. Granted many are full of corruption etc but we would be starting from a different footing, we already have a working infrastructure etc.

Now the finances. According to the GERS report(approved by UK and Scottish governments)the Scots took 9.3% of UK expenditure but gave back(when North Sea oil is accounted for)9.4%, Scotland also runs with a lower percentage deficit than the rest of UK. Scotland has actually outperformed the rest of the UK for 5 years. North Sea oil revenue is also increasing!

GERS Report - http://www.scotland....1/06/21144516/0

Do I think it is viable? Yes 100%. Will I vote for independence? Not got a clue. it would take years of negotiations etc to get full separation.

Edited January 10, 2012 by BenchBuddah

[Rufus Gwertigan]

I do however- fail to see what scotland would truly achieve from becoming a seperate country. they will need to set up and finance their own NHS, HMRC (i know the HQ is in cumbernauld anyway), education system, prison service, border controls, police service, DSS, etc etc etc, and whilst that might do nicely for the employment figures I truly fail to see how a country with such a small, widely spread population could finance such an infrastructure?

.

The Irish seemed to find a way at the time. Fair enough they are in the shite at the moment but all the above are easily attainable.

[lost]

something I didn't realize that was mentioned during the debate was Yorkshire has a higher population than Scotland

[Ed209]

I quite like the Union... Hope they don't go for it...

I agree, I like the Union too. Putting aside all the ugliness of its history, in the here and now I genuinely think all the member nations are stonger because of the it.

[The Big BBQ]

Will all end in tears and you can bet your back side it will be the UK that foots the bill for Scotland's "Independence" as they just cant afford to go it alone. FACT

[Kyelo]

Will all end in tears and you can bet your back side it will be the UK that foots the bill for Scotland's "Independence" as they just cant afford to go it alone. FACT

Have you read the link to the report I posted? It says your spouting nothing more than an uneducated opinion. FACT. Here are just the conclusion points...

The aim of GERS is to enhance public understanding of fiscal issues in Scotland. The primary objective is to estimate a detailed set of public sector accounts for Scotland through an analysis of official UK and Scottish Government financial statistics.

The key results for 2009-10 are as followed:

1.In 2009-10, total public sector expenditure for the benefit of Scotland by the UK Government, Scottish Government and all other tiers of the public sector, plus a per capita share of debt interest payments, was £62.1 billion. This is equivalent to 9.3 per cent of total UK public sector expenditure.

2.In 2009-10, total Scottish non-North Sea public sector revenue was estimated at £42.2 billion, (8.3 per cent of total UK non-North Sea revenue). Including a per capita share of North Sea revenue, total Scottish public sector revenue was estimated at £42.7 billion (8.3 per cent of UK total public sector revenue). When an illustrative geographical share of North Sea revenue is included, total Scottish public sector revenue was estimated at £48.1 billion (9.4 per cent of UK total public sector revenue).

3.In 2009-10, the estimated current budget balance for the public sector in Scotland was a deficit of £14.9 billion (13.4 per cent of GDP) excluding North Sea revenue, a deficit of £14.4 billion (12.6 per cent of GDP) including a per capita share of North Sea revenue or a deficit of £9.0 billion (6.8 per cent of GDP) including an illustrative geographical share of North Sea revenue.

4.In 2009-10, the UK as a whole ran a current budget deficit, including 100 per cent of North Sea revenue, worth £107.3 billion (7.6 per cent ofGDP).

5.In 2009-10, Scotland's estimated net fiscal balance was a deficit of £19.9 billion (17.8 per cent of GDP) when excluding North Sea revenue, a deficit of £19.3 billion (17.0 per cent of GDP) when including a per capita share of North Sea revenue or a deficit of £14.0 billion (10.6 per cent ofGDP) when an illustrative geographical share of North Sea revenue is included.

6.In 2009-10, the equivalent UK position including 100 per cent of North Sea revenue, referred to in the UK Public Sector Accounts as 'net borrowing', was a deficit of £156.5 billion (or 11.1 per cent of GDP)

.

[Ed209]

Have you read the link to the report I posted? It says your spouting nothing more than an uneducated opinion. FACT. Here are just the conclusion points...

Right ... but as far as I can see, that report says things are just about OK if you have all the north sea reserves. Keep dreaming on that one.

Scotland has until very recently enjoyed scandinavian levels of public spending with American levels of tax. From what you've posted it seems to me it quite explicitly puts out there that without the north sea reserves, scotland would be totally fucked on the status quo.

But then again I'm not an economist so am no expert. I imagine the economists that work in scottish universities though will be voting no to independence

[Kowalski]

I don't think the "yes" vote will win, there's not enough support for it currently. The SNP need to do a lot to convince many people to vote yes.

I don't like this possible "devo max/independence lite" option - its being added in because Salmond knows (at the moment) he won't win a yes vote. Should be a straight "Yes/No" in my opinion.

[t8yman]

I don't think it's in any doubt that the vote would go "no" at present, I just resent salmonds smugness that he pictures a land of milk and honey when we all know that it's not quite as clear cut as all that.

[Kowalski]

I'm in the undecided camp. A few things I'd like to know about (apart from the clincher which is North Sea Oil money) include:

• Royal Family - will we still pay for them?
  
• Military - will we have our own one, or will be still be part of the UK military meaning we can be dragged into illegal wars again?
  
• Currency - sterling/euro/something else?
  
• Foreign Embassies - do we need to fund embassies in every country?
  

Plenty of time for the SNP to tell us the full plan.

[abdoujaparov]

I'm in the undecided camp. A few things I'd like to know about (apart from the clincher which is North Sea Oil money) include:

• Royal Family - will we still pay for them?
  
• Military - will we have our own one, or will be still be part of the UK military meaning we can be dragged into illegal wars again?
  
• Currency - sterling/euro/something else?
  
• Foreign Embassies - do we need to fund embassies in every country?
  

Plenty of time for the SNP to tell us the full plan.

I think the answers are pretty straightforward:

• no, not if you choose not to have the queen as head of state
  
• as an independent nation, Scotland would either have its own armed forces or none at all, it could hardly share another country's
  
• Scotland couldnt be independent and use sterling - the economy would effectively be controlled by a central bank (the bak of engaland) over which it had no control
  
• as an independent country, you could have whatever embassies you wanted, wherever you wanted them
  

[Kowalski]

I think the answers are pretty straightforward:

• no, not if you choose not to have the queen as head of state
  
• as an independent nation, Scotland would either have its own armed forces or none at all, it could hardly share another country's
  
• Scotland couldnt be independent and use sterling - the economy would effectively be controlled by a central bank (the bak of engaland) over which it had no control
  
• as an independent country, you could have whatever embassies you wanted, wherever you wanted them
  

I don't find those straight forward:

• That's the unknown at the moment though, will the Queen be head of state?
  
• Again, another unknown, will we have our own armed forces or none at all. They've said in the past they might still share them with the rest of the UK
  
• I suspect you are probably correct but the Euro would be utter madness
  
• Yeah but its how much these sort of things cost to set up, we could potentially need hundreds of embassies - its just an example of the costs that have yet to be ironed out
  

Edited January 10, 2012 by Kowalski

[Kyelo]

Right ... but as far as I can see, that report says things are just about OK if you have all the north sea reserves. Keep dreaming on that one.

The UKs largest oil fields are all North or East of Aberdeen. So the UK, legally, wouldn't have a leg to stand on. All you need to do is read about the fears the Tories had in the mid 70's to realise this...http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/this-britain/how-black-gold-was-hijacked-north-sea-oil-and-the-betrayal-of-scotland-518697.html.

Anyway meh to that, feck knows how I'll vote!

[Ed209]

The UKs largest oil fields are all North or East of Aberdeen. So the UK, legally, wouldn't have a leg to stand on. All you need to do is read about the fears the Tories had in the mid 70's to realise this...http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/this-britain/how-black-gold-was-hijacked-north-sea-oil-and-the-betrayal-of-scotland-518697.html.

Anyway meh to that, feck knows how I'll vote!

I don't doubt it's value. What I do doubt is Scotlands legal right to it. I don't know much about international law but I know it's not as simple as "it's nearer to us". Especially when it comes to waters.