The Dirty Independence Question

[LJS]

Not quite the same thing.

Those who stopped voting Thatcher aren't the ones who disliked Thatcher.

Really?

[eFestivals]

Really?

Yes, really.

I'm not trying to claim no one changed their minds about her.

I'm saying that social attitudes prove that most didn't. They kept the same attitudes but decided to vote for others, because of an overwhelming social pressure.

 

Likewise .. Is the UK far far worse than it was just 18 months ago, to change people's minds away from the Union? It's not like there was a better offer on the table. And yet the actions towards it are different.

 

And then you look at the face-to-face polling done in Scotland and compare the results with the more-anonymous methods of polling, and spot the differences - and that social pressure (which doesn't exist in the same way round here, I assure you) is very VERY clearly in mix. People in Scotland are being cowed, rather than convinced.

 

It's no great step forwards for informed democracy, that's for sure. Its a step forwards in national delusion, more likely.

Edited September 3, 2015 by eFestivals

[LJS]

Yes, really.

I'm not trying to claim no one changed their minds about her.

I'm saying that social attitudes prove that most didn't. They kept the same attitudes but decided to vote for others, because of an overwhelming social pressure.

Likewise .. Is the UK far far worse than it was just 18 months ago, to change people's minds away from the Union? It's not like there was a better offer on the table. And yet the actions towards it are different.

And then you look at the face-to-face polling done in Scotland and compare the results with the more-anonymous methods of polling, and spot the differences - and that social pressure (which doesn't exist in the same way round here, I assure you) is very VERY clearly in mix. People in Scotland are being cowed, rather than convinced.

It's no great step forwards for informed democracy, that's for sure. Its a step forwards in national delusion, more likely.

It never ceases to amaze me how you know Scotland so much better than I do!

And as for your second point , I'm pretty sure we'd see more than 3% don't knows if we were all so terrified.

[eFestivals]

It never ceases to amaze me how you know Scotland so much better than I do!

so the social attitudes surveys are wrong for what people think?

They'll certainly have much more truth to them than the pressure to vote in the 'right' way.

 

And as for your second point , I'm pretty sure we'd see more than 3% don't knows if we were all so terrified.

I refer you to the TNS polls.

Care to explain the difference with other 'anonymous' polls?

Edited September 3, 2015 by eFestivals

[Comfy Bean]

If Scotland went indy, then I'd wager a Tory resurgence after a few years.  There would be a pinch in the finances and an election based on economic competence would raise its head again (similar to 2010).  Not saying they would win, but a significant increase for sure.

 

 

A pinch in finances....do you mean like massive cuts in our block grant and slashing of public services ?

From where I`m sat this is what`s been happening for years. Not sure I see much of a Tory surge in Scotland ( 1 seat ).

What makes you so sure...apart from cheer leading for the party you support.....which is of course fair enough.

I think you have massive support in certain corners of these islands but think youre wide of the mark here mate.

I do expect that an indy Scotland will eventually see Labour win back votes but your guys politics are dead up here ( 1 seat ).

Whether you agree or not, next years election will show that the majority of Jocks are more than happy with SNP " competence ".

Finances and the economy will play a huge part in next years election so happy to stand corrected when we see the results in 2016 

Edited September 6, 2015 by comfortablynumb1910

[tolywoly]

 

I think you have massive support in certain corners of these islands but think youre wide of the mark here mate.

I do expect that an indy Scotland will eventually see Labour win back votes but your guys politics are dead up here ( 1 seat ).

Whether you agree or not, next years election will show that the majority of Jocks are more than happy with SNP " competence ".

Finances and the economy will play a huge part in next years election so happy to stand corrected when we see the results in 2016 

You're taking a bit of a logical leap here. If the SNP win a landslide next May, all it will show is that a lot of people voted SNP.

 

If you want to know what the Scottish people think about the Scottish Governments performance there's plenty of polling that covers that question. Less than half of SNP supporters think they've done a good job, but are going to vote for them anyway. 

 

Scotland's going to be a near one party state for the foreseeable future. Until people start voting based on policy and record rather than national identity. Or until the SNP screw up enough that people realise they're just politicians after all. 

 

That 'pinch in the finances' Gary's delicately referring to, is that the removal of the massive subsidy Scotland gets from the UK?

[gary1979666]

 

 

That 'pinch in the finances' Gary's delicately referring to, is that the removal of the massive subsidy Scotland gets from the UK?

 

Bingo!  

 

I think that in the run up to Indy, the SNP will continue to surge and may even get all the seats come 2020.  

 

Come Indy though, when rUK no longer support iScot, there will be some difficult decisions to be made.  (I could ask about the £15bn / 8bn / whatever - but let's just say, there will not be the money that previously existed).  

 

With the SNP making these decisions, there'll be some (a lot?) of criticisms coming they're way, as cutting spending / increasing taxes is rarely popular.  Maybe by then rUK may be in a better position, and those of a righter leaning will look over the border and see greener grass under Tory cuts.

 

Yes, there's lots of ifs and buts, but was just a gut feel that the Scottish Blues will resurface (to some extent).

[eFestivals]

A pinch in finances....do you mean like massive cuts in our block grant and slashing of public services ?

From where I`m sat this is what`s been happening for years. Not sure I see much of a Tory surge in Scotland ( 1 seat ).

What makes you so sure...apart from cheer leading for the party you support.....which is of course fair enough.

I think you have massive support in certain corners of these islands but think youre wide of the mark here mate.

I do expect that an indy Scotland will eventually see Labour win back votes but your guys politics are dead up here ( 1 seat ).

Whether you agree or not, next years election will show that the majority of Jocks are more than happy with SNP " competence ".

Finances and the economy will play a huge part in next years election so happy to stand corrected when we see the results in 2016

The pinch in finances will be much greater via Indy or FFA than from Westminster. I keep asking you where the £15bn is, and you don't know and neither do the SNP.

If you do ever vote Indy you'll need the Tories to save Scotland from bankruptcy or someone similar. The SNP support will evaporate once numpties like you realise you've fallen for their myths and punched yourself in the face.

[gary1979666]

Another thing to consider about Tories in Indy Scotland is that 1 seat out of 59 may not necessarily translate.  1/59 assumes FPTP.....if you go for PR, then they get one in five/six seats.  More if they have a sure and the SNP's share will dramatically shrink.

[Comfy Bean]

Bingo!  

 

I think that in the run up to Indy, the SNP will continue to surge and may even get all the seats come 2020.  

 

Come Indy though, when rUK no longer support iScot, there will be some difficult decisions to be made.  (I could ask about the £15bn / 8bn / whatever - but let's just say, there will not be the money that previously existed).  

 

With the SNP making these decisions, there'll be some (a lot?) of criticisms coming they're way, as cutting spending / increasing taxes is rarely popular.  Maybe by then rUK may be in a better position, and those of a righter leaning will look over the border and see greener grass under Tory cuts.

 

Yes, there's lots of ifs and buts, but was just a gut feel that the Scottish Blues will resurface (to some extent).

 

A lot of ifs and buts as you say mate but some fair points well made. 

 

I remain convinced that indy will happen and the polls now look as if they back that up. As I`ve said before, your guys seem to have England sewn up and with the maths that means we are looking at successive Tory Govts.

 

After the next one, I think a significant chunk of " no " voting Labour supporters will vote YES as they now know Milliband lost and whoever is in charge next time will probs do the same.

 

I know that you have never claimed that Scotland will be 15bill down from day one as that would just be silly. Negotiations around what we pay in and take out will take many, many years to be implemented - as we have seen over the past few years around some of the tax stuff - but I agree with you that eventually the SNP will be required to make difficult choices under greater scrutiny. 

 

The greater scrutiny will be a good thing but I`m pretty sure it will be Labour who will be better placed by then as a serious opposition ( I would guess minus Dugdale ) rather than your guys.

 

If we see Labour in an indy Scotland returning to what / who they used to represent then they will no doubt be able to give the SNP a far greater run for their money. An SNP remember who will have achieved their main goal and who will need to re-invent themselves to an extent. I do agree that there will be some folks up here who won`t fancy Indy, Labour or the SNP and who will vote Tory and talk of the good old days ruling the waves etc 

Edited September 8, 2015 by comfortablynumb1910

[Comfy Bean]

The pinch in finances will be much greater via Indy or FFA than from Westminster. I keep asking you where the £15bn is, and you don't know and neither do the SNP.

If you do ever vote Indy you'll need the Tories to save Scotland from bankruptcy or someone similar. The SNP support will evaporate once numpties like you realise you've fallen for their myths and punched yourself in the face.

 

By " numpties like you " are you referring to the recent poll showing the majority of Scots would vote for Indy if we were having a vote tomorrow. If so, then why not say so 

If you just meant me... then apologies for this top banter going over my head....hopefully it made you pmsl 

 

Some would say that the Tories have done quite a bit to deliver Indy rather than your view of them potentially being our saviours but time will tell. You keep predicting this support evaporating but momentum continues at a steady pace.

Nicola Sturgeon says she entered politics because of Margaret Thatcher. You do realise that was not her championing the Tories as our saviours etc ?

 

You have to read her words ( slowly ) and think it through 

 

Oh and I thought we ( you ) had dealt with this £15billion ?

[Comfy Bean]

And continuing with the "how much worse off would Scotland be" theme, I've just come across this (published yesterday):-

Independence would leave Scotland £7bn worse off, oil forecasts show

However, do note that this £7Bn is calculated using "the Edinburgh government’s most optimistic forecasts for oil and gas revenue", so the funding gap is extremely likely to be far greater than that (historically, nearly all UK oil revenue forecasts end up being huge over-estimates).

 

To give that £7Bn some context, that's more than 10% of Scottish Govt revenues, and over 5% of GDP.

And ...

As I say, indy for Scotland is a dead duck at least until these issues are addressed. There's no anti-austerity when you can't pay the bills.

 

 

I have pointed out often enough that an iscotland will also make " some " savings ( eventually ) with Indy.

 

I have never ever disputed that there will also be " some " costs ( eventually ). It would be silly to expect no costs and no savings as we know.

 

We do know that it wont happen overnight.

Edited September 8, 2015 by comfortablynumb1910

[eFestivals]

By " numpties like you " are you referring to the recent poll showing the majority of Scots would vote for Indy if we were having a vote tomorrow. If so, then why not say so

No, i mean numpties like you who think the polls are meaningful.

Let's see is the SNP have an absolute commitment to another indyref, shall we? What do you think the chances are for the party who have barred all indie debates from their party conference.

There's a reason why they don't want to talk about it. They'd have to admit they have no plan for Scotland except greater poverty.

Edited September 8, 2015 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

By " numpties like you " are you referring to the recent poll showing the majority of Scots would vote for Indy if we were having a vote tomorrow. If so, then why not say so

If you just meant me... then apologies for this top banter going over my head....hopefully it made you pmsl

Some would say that the Tories have done quite a bit to deliver Indy rather than your view of them potentially being our saviours but time will tell. You keep predicting this support evaporating but momentum continues at a steady pace.

Nicola Sturgeon says she entered politics because of Margaret Thatcher. You do realise that was not her championing the Tories as our saviours etc ?

You have to read her words ( slowly ) and think it through

Oh and I thought we ( you ) had dealt with this £15billion ?

You've not dealt with it. Saying it will somehow be magicked when the time is right is laughable.

Which is precisely why a dose of reality will have the Scottish public voting for competence and not empty dreams.

[eFestivals]

I have pointed out often enough that an iscotland will also make " some " savings ( eventually ) with Indy.

I have never ever disputed that there will also be " some " costs ( eventually ). It would be silly to expect no costs and no savings as we know.

We do know that it wont happen overnight.

You have claimed Indy Scotland will make some savings - tho Alex's white paper couldn't find them (apart from when he said the English would happily pay )

It won't happen overnight, true. It won't even happen in your lifetime unless you're welcoming extra poverty for Scotland.

[Comfy Bean]

No, i mean numpties like you who think the polls are meaningful.

Let's see is the SNP have an absolute commitment to another indyref, shall we? What do you think the chances are for the party who have barred all indie debates from their party conference.

There's a reason why they don't want to talk about it. They'd have to admit they have no plan for Scotland except greater poverty.

Just because you don't like the result of a poll doesn't make it less meaningful... Not in the real world anyway. Of course it's only one poll but I think the momentum and direction are of interest / relevance.

As you know, we just had an indy vote

I'm pleased were not setting another date. Patience :-)

In the meantime we have the Scottish elections coming up and the tories to oppose in Westminster. Plenty to be getting on with.

[eFestivals]

Just because you don't like the result of a poll doesn't make it less meaningful... Not in the real world anyway. Of course it's only one poll but I think the momentum and direction are of interest / relevance.

As you know, we just had an indy vote

I'm pleased were not setting another date. Patience :-)

In the meantime we have the Scottish elections coming up and the tories to oppose in Westminster. Plenty to be getting on with.

The quality of any poll results is in the quality of the consideration. These people are thinking all positives and no negatives.

I'm still seeing people claiming Scotland subsides the UK, havevthese people heard of GERS?

Yesterday I even saw someone claiming that rUK will be responsible for Scottish pensions.

And you and LJS continue to believe that the missing £15bn can be magicked up the moment the SNP decide they want it.

Do you ever actually think about how pie in the sky this stuff is?

If Scotland is daft enough to vote indie, it'll be a painful lesson. Still, you can have a myth it was all the Tories fault to make you feel better as you live those massive self-imposed cuts.

[LJS]

Christ, the return of the $15Bn dollar man.

More moronic than bionic.

[Comfy Bean]

I believe that minus £15billion on day 1 is pie in the sky.

On day 1 of year 2 you think we will be down 30 billion.

On day 1 of our 3rd year you're at 45billion.

It's laughable that you continue down this road but each to their own :-)

[russycarps]

The continued denial of the £15bn never fails to amuse me. Carry on lads

[Comfy Bean]

Hey russ. Nice pic :-) I like it.

Good news, the latest guesswork figure is down to 7 billion.

Unfortunately, any potential savings... I'm thinking Lords, nukes, wars, London train sets to get you to work quicker have been ruled out completely.

You don't think it's 15billion each and every year for ever and ever from day 1. No-one does :-)

[eFestivals]

I believe that minus £15billion on day 1 is pie in the sky.

On day 1 of year 2 you think we will be down 30 billion.

On day 1 of our 3rd year you're at 45billion.

It's laughable that you continue down this road but each to their own :-)

What's laughable is you believing it can be magicly fixed.

If sorting yourself with massi e extra money is so easy, why is no one managing to do it?

The only realistic answer is cuts far bigger than the Tories are giving you.

[eFestivals]

Christ, the return of the $15Bn dollar man.

More moronic than bionic.

You're the man who says the SNP will have a plan before they hold another indyref.

You might as well get straight to it and say there'll never be another indyref cos they have no plan and will never have a plan.

[eFestivals]

Hey russ. Nice pic :-) I like it.

Good news, the latest guesswork figure is down to 7 billion.

Unfortunately, any potential savings... I'm thinking Lords, nukes, wars, London train sets to get you to work quicker have been ruled out completely.

You don't think it's 15billion each and every year for ever and ever from day 1. No-one does :-)

Oh look, someone else that never read the white paper.

Cos if you did you'd know there's no savings to be had from defence (or did alex lie to you?).

And the costs of London train sets and the like are excluded from the massive Scottish deficit... Or has Alex been lying to you again?

The £20m pa from the lords won't even scratch the surface of the new nationalist overhead charges - such as doubled the price (and added 4 years) to your lovely shiny new railway.

Edited September 8, 2015 by eFestivals

[LJS]

What's laughable is you believing it can be magicly fixed.

If sorting yourself with massi e extra money is so easy, why is no one managing to do it?

The only realistic answer is cuts far bigger than the Tories are giving you.

Not to worry, Neil, your beloved Tories amazing austerity will have turned round the uk economy so much that we will all be running a massive surplus by the time the next Indy ref comes along.

With the Scottish economy growing faster than England & unemployment falling faster, who knows how things will look in 6 or 10 years time?

Do feel free to bang on & on about the £15Bn. I'll continue to ignore it.