The Dirty Independence Question

[eFestivals]

Just a brief mention of 'Project Fear' and who invented the term.

And yet the ones using that term in the public area are the yes campaign, who are using it to suggest that what Scotland has most to fear is the consequence of voting no.

Why does the yes campaign think that punitive measures will be taken against Scotland in the event of voting 'no'? The most likely result is that Scotland will get more political freedom with 'devo max', so Scotland can only be scared of what it might do to itself.

The one possible consequence onto Scotland is that rUK might feel that different considerations should be made about future spends on UK long-term infrastructure (of which since devolution there's almost none anyway), so that they don't happen in a region that in future might be independent of the UK - but if Scotland felt they could have this vote without there being any possible consequences back onto them whichever way the vote goes, that's Scotland's error.

[Buff124]

Good morning Neil.


Its amazing how we've all become instant experts on Spanish foreign policy.

Who'd a thought it ?



Edit: Best not mention Gibraltar

Edited March 2, 2014 by Buff124

[eFestivals]

Good morning Neil.

Its amazing how we've all become instant experts on Spanish foreign policy.

Who'd a thought it ?

I'd say domestic Spanish policy and not foreign policy.

Spain doesn't want Catalonia to be independent as Scotland might be, and that will colour a lot about the decisions they choose to make towards Scotland.

Anyone who thinks Spain will ignore its national interests in favour of Scotland's interests is kidding themselves.

[Buff124]

from today's Cabinet Office press release

Crucial decisions – like whether you keep the UK pound in your pocket and who will be a British citizen – rest on this vote. There are also a host of great British institutions – from the BBC and the National Lottery to the Met Office and our Olympic teams – who would have to be broken up in the event of independence.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/voters-urged-to-make-their-voices-heard-in-independence-debate

The Met Office Vote yes and you won't even get weather anymore. Having said that, I'd really miss those stunningly accurate forecasts.

[Buff124]

I'd say domestic Spanish policy and not foreign policy.

Foreign policy matters would seem to be coming front and centre, partly due to the rather unforseen re-appearance on the world stage of these chaps. Suppliers of one third of the European Union's gas and oil dontcha know.

[Buff124]

And yet the ones using that term in the public area are the yes campaign, who are using it to suggest that what Scotland has most to fear is the consequence of voting no.

Think the unoffical name of the Yes campaign is actually "Project Fool Me Once..." .

Matthew Parris in the Times today nicknamed the No campaign "Project Better Watch Your Step, Jock"

[eFestivals]

Who cares, really? Unless the yes campaign is the first political campaign in history where politicians are telling the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth?

According to the yes campaign the yes campaign is beyond all rational and reasonable criticism, because any time massive gaping *FACTUAL* flaws in what Salmond is saying is pointed out, that can never be rational &/or reasonable analysis, it is bullying and bluster. Meanwhile, businesses are not allowed to make normal, rational business considerations (eg: SL, & RBS). That's bullying too.

The link I gave above shows how opinions really are: that less than 20% of the people of Scotland are committed to Scottish independence, while 40% are immovable in their support for the union. For the future of Scotland that's something that Scotland should not ignore, because the most dangerous victory in this campaign is one where either side wins by a narrow margin.

The real scary part is around some of what supporters of the yes campaign are saying, and why i've got so addicted to reading the comments in newspapers; there's nowt as funny as a fruitcake no matter how it gets baked (I love the comments on UKIP stories too). For example, yesterday I read something that went like this....

people are being made to feel scared about their jobs, their pensions, their taxes, their EU membership, using the pound, etc, etc ... and the informed people of Scotland will be denied the democracy that is rightfully theirs by these scared people

(that's a paraphrased version of what I read in some comments yesterday [it would take me an age to find it again to put here verbatim]).

[Buff124]

Gxxxx Xxxx MP and Exxx Xxxxx MP [allegedly] get their constituency office staff to occasionally masquerade as online SNP loving bampots. Exxx [even more allegedly] joins in when he's had a few. One way to spot the fakes is that lots of the genuinely wired-to-a-moon-orbiting-the-planet-Zog will sport a Gaelic username, a literal translation of Jim Watson or suchlike. One might guess there are others playing the same game ? Possibly even staff at newspapers posting polarised statements just to keep the clicks up ?

It is good entertainment though, innit ?

Trolling aside, even having some kind of debate at this level now is a few years ahead of the SNP schedule, so they say. No-one expected them to win an overall majority in the Holyrood election in 2011, as the mixed member proportional representation system was designed to encourage coalition government. The whole thing is a fluke.Its been likened by some as having a practice swing at the ball. Quebec springs to mind.

[eFestivals]

Gxxxx Xxxx MP and Exxx Xxxxx MP [allegedly] get their constituency office staff to occasionally masquerade as online SNP loving bampots... <snip>

It is good entertainment though, innit ?

And every single one of the real yes voters posting online is fully aware of all issues and facts and that people have different ideas and responses to facts, yeah (so never have a reason to call anyone a bully)?

I don't doubt that there's the same amount of unimaginable political stupidity equally spread around on all sides of this issue, just as there is for any political issue at any geographical location within the UK.

And that's what is very enjoyable, yep, just as it is with the comments in any UKIP story.

Trolling aside, even having some kind of debate at this level now is a few years ahead of the SNP schedule, so they say. No-one expected them to win an overall majority in the Holyrood election in 2011, as the mixed member proportional representation system was designed to encourage coalition government. The whole thing is a fluke.Its been likened by some as having a practice swing at the ball. Quebec springs to mind.

Salmond was outmanoeuvred by Call Me Dave. That's the most astounding political happening within all this so far.

I reckon Salmond might like a Quebec, but it's possible that Dave might have stiffed him on that one too. It'll depend on what the result it of course, but this is meant to be a "decisive" referendum in what Moron and Salmond agreed, so if a no win is a sizeable one this should be able to be put away for 30+ years.

Just going from what that BBC poll found when people were asked to say how they'll vote on economic considerations, I'll take a guess at the 'no' side winning with a 20%+ gap. People are in the main too smart to go along with Salmond's no downside spin, I reckon.

Whether 20% would be a sizeable enough gap to put the issue to bed for a long time I'm not sure.

[Buff124]

Yeah, its coming down to stuff like UKIPs performance in May's Euro elections to try and keep the Yes vote credible in September. All faintly relevant national and international events will be flung into the pot and stirred vigorously.

For instance, if UKIP do anywhere near reasonable it'll be spun by yes campaigners as akin to a right wing coup.

[eFestivals]

Can I ask - Buff, or anyone else in Scotland - what you think a currency is and why you think an independent Scotland has a right to a sterling currency union with rUK?

I know what Salmond says and why, but he avoids getting into the nitty gritty of it for his own political purposes, and simply says that anyone who disputes his version is a 'bully'.

I'm interested to know what the view of people from Scotland is, at a deeper level than I've yet seen anywhere by anyone.

[5co77ie]

I see Mebyon Kernow are launching a bid for a National Assembly for Cornwall.Apparently they're coming to a festival near you to argue their case.

[eFestivals]

I see Mebyon Kernow are launching a bid for a National Assembly for Cornwall.Apparently they're coming to a festival near you to argue their case.

I do prefer a bunch of nationalists that want a national identity at any price (and it'd be at a hell of a price for Cornwall as one of the UK's most deprived regions already).

It's a far sounder principle for independence than deciding to do it only because you believe you'll have a fatter pay packet because of it (see the poll I linked to above). Being sovereign gets to mean that you accept the consequences of your sovereignty whether they be good or bad.

[Buff124]

Good Evening Baz

One of the main reasons against a currency union is the size of Scotland's financial sector, risk of bail-outs etc. Lloyd's and RBS have pretty much said they will move their operations to rUK in the event of a yes vote. So rUK ends up being liable for them crashing anyway. Here's a bit from Robert Peston's piece on it yesterday.

"Lloyds' and RBS's loans and investments are £1.9 trillion collectively, or between 13 and 15 times the value of Scotland's annual output or GDP (depending on how it's measured) - which suggests that Scotland would be bankrupted by the implied costs of rescuing these two banks and their depositors.

What matters is that the Treasury - and the cross party troika of George Osborne, Danny Alexander and Ed Balls - have cited these apparently unaffordable potential bail-out costs when explaining why they reject the demand of the Scottish government for a formal monetary union between an autonomous Scotland and the rest of the UK.

And, on balance, it may be that the Lloyd's and RBS' threatened relocation to England would be worse for the pro-union campaign - because it means the financial risks of a monetary union with Scotland would reduced. "

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26455655

EDIT: With the usual caveat of this being purely hypothetical

Edited March 6, 2014 by Buff124

[kaosmark2]

If Scotland vote for independence, the UK are no longer going to have a responsibility to make policies that benefit Scotland, particularly at their own expense. Salmond's an absolute bullshitter spouting endless bollocks and trying to pressure the other parties into committing to something they'll actually have obligation to NOT do. Scotland devolving might be good for Scotland, it might be good for the rUK, but it sure as hell won't be good for both, and chances are the problems will go to the ones without the power to dictate terms.

[Buff124]

the UK are no longer going to have a responsibility to make policies that benefit Scotland

I hadn't realised that the 1980s and 1990s policy of using North Sea oil tax revenue to de-industrialise Scotland (particularly the marine engineering sector) , smash the trade unions, stigmatise the working class and throw entire communities to the wolves was actually done to benefit Scotland. Sorry for misreading the situation.

[kaosmark2]

I hadn't realised that the 1980s and 1990s policy of using North Sea oil tax revenue to de-industrialise Scotland (particularly the marine engineering sector) , smash the trade unions, stigmatise the working class and throw entire communities to the wolves was actually done to benefit Scotland. Sorry for misreading the situation.

The Tories have fucked over everyone that isn't the rich little England white upper-middle class regardless of whether they're English, Scottish or Welsh. There's still been policies by governments of various flavours that have benefited Scotland, and the times it's got the brunt of it has been because of the demographic, not some anti-Scotland agenda.

[Buff124]

Yep, George Osborne's £10 billion tax raid on the oil industry in the 2012 budget done us the world of good too. And the poll tax, and its offspring the bedroom tax

I expect you'll come back with a big list of all the beneficial policies.

[kaosmark2]

Yep, George Osborne's £10 billion tax raid on the oil industry in the 2012 budget done us the world of good too. And the poll tax, and its offspring the bedroom tax

I expect you'll come back with a big list of all the beneficial policies.

Is that bullying Scotland specifically, or the UK poor in general?

[eFestivals]

Good Evening Baz

Buff, my apologies for Barry being a moron. Sadly, all nationalities have them.

One of the main reasons against a currency union is the size of Scotland's financial sector, risk of bail-outs etc. Lloyd's and RBS have pretty much said they will move their operations to rUK in the event of a yes vote. So rUK ends up being liable for them crashing anyway. Here's a bit from Robert Peston's piece on it yesterday.

That's one of the main practical reasons, as opposed to being one of the main reasons.

And yes, if RBS etc moved their HQ's to London, that reduces the liabilities of an independent Scotland - but also it's average tax take, to a very significant amount. I've never yet seen a Scot mention the lost tax revenue when they've mentioned what you have here.

But the rUK objection to currency union is not the amount of iScotland's liabilities rUK might have to underwrite, but the fact we'd be underwriting anything at all.

Why should the rUK taxpayer underwrite the liabilities of a foreign govt?

It's certainly not anything we're obliged to do - while Scotland ARE morally obliged to take a part of the debt they've helped to accrue as a part of (the current) UK, something that Salmond has stated himself in the past.

-----

All the above aside, nothing of that is about why iScotland believes itself to have a right to a currency union, to the extent that they can feel it's fair to issue threats around not getting one.

[kaosmark2]

Why should the rUK taxpayer underwrite the liabilities of a foreign govt?

It's certainly not anything we're obliged to do

This was my point.

[eFestivals]

I hadn't realised that the 1980s and 1990s policy of using North Sea oil tax revenue to de-industrialise Scotland (particularly the marine engineering sector) , smash the trade unions, stigmatise the working class and throw entire communities to the wolves was actually done to benefit Scotland. Sorry for misreading the situation.

There's no area of the UK that couldn't take offence to past policies in a similar manner. Simple fact is we've all been a part of the same nation state during that time, and have to accept the past as what it was no matter how much we might have disliked it.

Nothing of that is of any relevance to an independent Scotland, aside from it being the reason why you might want an independent Scotland (I've no problem with that being a person's reason for wanting iS, if that's how they're rationalising it).

[eFestivals]

Yep, George Osborne's £10 billion tax raid on the oil industry in the 2012 budget done us the world of good too. And the poll tax, and its offspring the bedroom tax

I expect you'll come back with a big list of all the beneficial policies.

There's tax fuck-vers and corporate welfare everywhere in the UK. If you have issue with them, decide to leave the UK if that's your choice.

It's only a reason for wanting to leave, it has nothing to do with anything of how you might leave.

[Buff124]

If I'm figuring this out correctly, then the Scottish Government believe a currency union is the fairest and best option. They've been advised this by their economic advisors, but who knows whether their economists are as good as the UK Government's ? Its all back to opinions an assertations, so no change there.

Here's one of them.

A currency union would benefit the remainder of the UK more than an independent Scotland, according to a veteran economist.

"It would actually be in Scotland's greater self-interest to use the pound unilaterally but a currency union would benefit both sides of the border, Professor David Simpson said.

The Harvard-educated economist has worked for the United Nations, World Bank, European Commission and was chief economic advisor to Standard Life. "

http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/professor-david-simpson-currency-union-would-benefit-ruk-more-than-iscotlan.1393953769

Edited March 6, 2014 by Buff124

[Buff124]

have to accept the past as what it was no matter how much we might have disliked it.

wow, gratuitous and tenuously linked music opportunity ! thanks !