The Dirty Independence Question

[Comfy Bean]

Golly! Snp at 52%

http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/297729-stv-poll-labour-would-annihilated-if-general-election-held-tomorrow/

The gap will presumably narrow significantly but it does indicate Labour in Scotland may be in a bit more bother than some of is thought.

Ukip at 2% is very pleasing.

Hope you are well sir. We both know this is NOT going to happen but just for fun, here`s how things stand.........

[russycarps]

I`m cringing for one of the two of you but not sure which one

I realise there would be a great irony here but do you think that perhaps you`ve been " trolled " ? Just a thought mind !

Consider this for a second..... England must have what... 90% of the punters who would vote on the EU thing. So IF...Engerland voted to come out then in reality ( in this scenario ) then " we " are out. I would guess that NS knows the numbers !

Do you think she is maybe positioning her party as she knows that against 90% it won`t matter a toss how Scotland vote. She also knows that Scotland is in the main pro-europe / immigration and has been for a while. She also knows that UKIP don`t have the support they enjoy south of the border ( see LJS`s post earlier ) but with elections coming up she is getting the point in early about Scotland as a country being denied what it voted for.....yet again ! On the back of any broken vow talk this could all add up when they take on Labour in the Scottish elections down the line.

Looking at the last couple of pages, I think she has hooked a couple of biggies with her first cast Alex will be so proud

I could of course be wrong and she just said what she said without thinking and never thought for a moment anyone would pick up on it......Yeah it could be that.......

I think the issue of leaving Europe is bigger than petty party politics but sturgeon is a career politician like all the rest so will use any opportunity to push her agenda at the expense of doing any real good.

It's depressing to see she is exactly the same as cameron miliband farage et al.

[eFestivals]

I didn`t mean this as a good thing hence " whatever side you are on ". Can you expand on how you view the current state of Scottish Labour ?

Yep: Scotland loves the tories, and are so desperate to be ruled by the tories that they'll ensure it happens.

You can throw back any words you like to that, but it looks like Scotland is going to ensure it is ruled by the tories, when different choices in Scotland would get a different result.

Amusingly, it looks like being the exact opposite of being Scotland getting the result that England votes for. It'll be Scotland getting the result that Scotland has voted for - tories!

Yeah, yeah, I know, Labour are red tories. And yet you and I both know that Labour will do less that Scottish people dislike than from Cameron and co.

And instead, you'll vote for a party that is no less tory than Labour - whose white paper contained some of the same things you condemn Labour for, and where they're often to the right of the (real) tories.

It's like someone punching themselves in the face and saying "look how clever I am".

Edited October 31, 2014 by eFestivals

[LJS]

Yep: Scotland loves the tories, and are so desperate to be ruled by the tories that they'll ensure it happens.

You can throw back any words you like to that, but it looks like Scotland is going to ensure it is ruled by the tories, when different choices in Scotland would get a different result.

Amusingly, it looks like being the exact opposite of being Scotland getting the result that England votes for. It'll be Scotland getting the result that Scotland has voted for - tories!

Yeah, yeah, I know, Labour are red tories. And yet you and I both know that Labour will do less that Scottish people dislike than from Cameron and co.

And instead, you'll vote for a party that is no less tory than Labour - whose white paper contained some of the same things you condemn Labour for, and where they're often to the right of the (real) tories.

It's like someone punching themselves in the face and saying "look how clever I am".

Whilst there are undeniably consequences if we don't vote Labour. It is frankly bizarre to describe Scotland electing zero Tories & getting a Tory government as " getting the result Scotland has voted for"

What a strange world you live in, Neil!

[eFestivals]

Consider this for a second..... England must have what... 90% of the punters who would vote on the EU thing. So IF...Engerland voted to come out then in reality ( in this scenario ) then " we " are out. I would guess that NS knows the numbers !

you certainly don't know the numbers.

Ignoring the false Scottish narrative, if England voted 'out' by 51% and Scotland voted 'in' by a big margin, then guess what? England gets the Scottish result.

She also knows that Scotland is in the main pro-europe / immigration and has been for a while.

England is definitely pro-EU.

The loud anti-EU feeling in England from some - just some - that you're hearing isn't actually anti-EU, it's anti-immigration, driven by false narratives and stupid assumptions around the "no borders" aspect of the EU that is not a meaningful part of the immigration issue.

And guess what? If Scotland had anything like the same amount of immigration as England has, Scotland would be more anti-immigration than England. As it is already, Scotland is hugely anti-immigration, as plenty of polls are able to show you

Oh look, Scotland is anti-immigration by 68%.

http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/do-you-support-or-oppose-stricter-controls-on-immigration

Scotland as a country being denied what it voted for.....yet again !

Don't you go worrying, eh? If Scotland votes SNP then Scotland will get the Toy/UKIP coalition it wants and is desperate for, and will be out of the EU just as it wants to be, and then Scotland will be happy with the choice that Scotland has made for itself.

On the back of any broken vow talk this could all add up when they take on Labour in the Scottish elections down the line.

from a bit of digging around I've done, it appears that the SNP surge will be far less damaging to Labour than many assume, because many of the Labour seats have a very big majority (20%+) that'll be difficult to over-turn.

But maybe it'll be damaging to Labour to the extent that yes-ers want to believe, but nothing like as damaging as a tory/UKIP win will be to Scotland.

Looking at the last couple of pages, I think she has hooked a couple of biggies with her first cast Alex will be so proud

yes, she's certainly hooked those who think punching themselves in the face is a smart move.

I could of course be wrong and she just said what she said without thinking and never thought for a moment anyone would pick up on it......Yeah it could be that.......

Yea, it's nothing about divisive politics designed to con Scotland into doing what it doesn't want to do.

[eFestivals]

Whilst there are undeniably consequences if we don't vote Labour. It is frankly bizarre to describe Scotland electing zero Tories & getting a Tory government as " getting the result Scotland has voted for"

What a strange world you live in, Neil!

It's a UK election, not a Scottish election. The result is a UK result, not a Scottish result.

So Scotland gets the UK result it votes for, and if Scotland votes to make the tories the biggest party in the UK, Scotland has got what it voted for.

Drawing imaginary lines and pretending nothing outside of that imaginary line counts for anything is pathetic and stupid. Doing that doesn't change the result onto Scotland.

But hey, as Nicola didn't get a majority in every street in her constituency, by her own EU-vote logic, she didn't get elected.

Edited October 31, 2014 by eFestivals

[kaosmark2]

It's a UK election, not a Scottish election. The result is a UK result, not a Scottish result.

I find it painful how many times this point has had to be reiterated.

[eFestivals]

I find it painful how many times this point has had to be reiterated.

The idea that Scotland should get it's own result is where the logic of what Scotland is doing falls down.

If Scotland wanted its own result it would have voted to be its own country. Some people's memories are giving goldfish a run for their money.

[LJS]

The idea that Scotland should get it's own result is where the logic of what Scotland is doing falls down.

If Scotland wanted its own result it would have voted to be its own country. Some people's memories are giving goldfish a run for their money.

And the logic of blaming a Scotland that returns no tory mp's to Westminster for a Tory government is....?

[eFestivals]

And the logic of blaming a Scotland that returns no tory mp's to Westminster for a Tory government is....?

It's a UK election. The result in Scotland, or Shetland, or the central belt, or any region anyone cares to define for anywhere in the uK, matters not a fuck in isolation.

It's a UK election, and there's a UK result.

How the Scots vote affects that result, and not only via the members they return. How those members affect the whole make-up is an integral part of how it works.

If Scotland was to return 50 SNP MPs, Scotland will have chosen to impose the result from everywhere else on itself, because the SNP will not be the UK govt.

The simple fact is, Scotland risks causing there to be a Tory/UKIP govt, when a different choice in Scotland will have Scotland impose a different govt onto England.

You know, the very thing yes-ers like to pretend isn't possible - England to get the govt that Scotland votes for.

You like to pretend that Labour are the same as the tories, but if Scotland votes SNP Scotland will have chosen to vote itself out of the EU via that too, when - wow, difference - that's not what happens if Scotland votes Labour.

But if Scotland thinks punching itself in the face is the smart thing to do, go ahead. The wounds will bleed for five very long years. At least!

Edited October 31, 2014 by eFestivals

[gary1979666]

Neil, whilst I agree with your point in principle in that Scotland's vote impacts which government we get.

To say that "England gets the govt that Scotland votes for" is pushing the logic a bit far. There is no intent on the Scots to vote for a Tory govt and the SNP votes are in no way a push for the Tories.

The effect might be that the Tories get in as a result of it, but you're laying the blame on a bit thick. Surely it's more to blame more of the people who actually voted Tory as a first pass. Or even those who are left voting Libdem.

[LJS]

Or maybe the "blame" if we get a Tory government on the back of a big Snp vote might lie with the Labour party?

For me, I do not want a minute more Tory rule than is necessary. But neither to I want to perpetuate a system where the best we can ever hope for is "not quite as bad as the Tories but still godawful"

I am not opposed to tactical voting. Indeed it is almost mandatory if you happen to live in one of the 50 or so constituencies where your vote actually counts. But there is limit to who is eligible for my tactical vote. And presently Labour don't qualify.

And for the umpteenth time, if Tory + Ukip = majority, then as long as Scotland return no Tories or ukippers, all we are doing is tinkering with the make up of the opposition.

On the other hand , we can in theory, deprive Labour of an outright majority, but if we do they can form a coalition with the snp. I'd be perfectly happy with that outcome....& also quite amused

Edited October 31, 2014 by LJS

[eFestivals]

Neil, whilst I agree with your point in principle in that Scotland's vote impacts which government we get.

To say that "England gets the govt that Scotland votes for" is pushing the logic a bit far. There is no intent on the Scots to vote for a Tory govt and the SNP votes are in no way a push for the Tories.

From the polls looking towards next year's elections, I don't think it's unreasonable to say that England will get the govt that Scotland votes for.

If Scotland votes SNP, it looks quite possible that that will cause the UK to have a tory/UKIP govt. If Scotland votes Labour, it looks like causing the UK to have a Labour govt.

OK, the first of those isn't Scotland getting the exact govt it votes for (tho it's still Scotland causing a different outcome to what otherwise might be), but the 2nd definitely is - the very thing that many in Scotland claims doesn't happen (yet has happened before).

The effect might be that the Tories get in as a result of it, but you're laying the blame on a bit thick. Surely it's more to blame more of the people who actually voted Tory as a first pass. Or even those who are left voting Libdem.

No single vote is a vote in isolation from the other votes; each individual vote is worth the same.

People will vote for who they vote for, and in a democracy you have to accept their right to make that choice; you can try and influence it in advance, but you have to accept the choice they make.

Some people will always vote tory, and sometimes the tories will win; Scotland has helped them to do so in the past, when they were much more the toffs party than they are now.

Anyone who wishes to not have a tory govt at the time the tories might win has to decide what is the best way to use their vote. They can vote and enable the tories, or they can vote to stop the tories winning.

At the end of the day, if Scotland votes SNP and causes the tories to be the biggest party (when voting Labour would have made Labour the biggest party), each SNP voter will have played no less of a part in causing that tory govt as any tory voter.

No vote is made in isolation from all others. It's how all of the votes combine that makes the result.

This is why I say it's like punching yourself in the face.

[eFestivals]

Or maybe the "blame" if we get a Tory government on the back of a big Snp vote might lie with the Labour party?

like the blame for the lost indy vote is held against the Labour party, and is driving you and others to vote SNP?

It's all very transparent. Yes, I know there is more to it than just that, but that was the tipping point and it would be laughable to pretend otherwise.

It's a grudge by bad losers.

For me, I do not want a minute more Tory rule than is necessary.

then don't vote SNP and cause there to be a tory govt.

The polls very clearly show how it might go if Scotland votes SNP. Vote SNP, get tory.

But neither to I want to perpetuate a system where the best we can ever hope for is "not quite as bad as the Tories but still godawful"

Change is brought about via campaigning for change, and not by bad tempered destructive rejection.

I'd prefer something better than Labour myself, but it's not just me that gets to choose. Nothing different to that personal view exists by drawing an imaginary line to create Scotland. It's a UK election, and nothing of the rules says that Scotland should get who just Scotland votes for, any more than it says that I get the result I vote for.

So I take how others are likely to vote into consideration, and think about how I might help myself get the best result for myself frpom within all of the votes and the system used.

And I certainly don't get the best for myself by enabling a win for the worst for myself.

This is why I say it's like Scotland punching itself in the face if it votes SNP.

I am not opposed to tactical voting. Indeed it is almost mandatory if you happen to live in one of the 50 or so constituencies where your vote actually counts. But there is limit to who is eligible for my tactical vote. And presently Labour don't qualify.

So you're saying that Labour are so horrible, you'll help a win for worse-than-Labour. Punch yourself in the face why don't you.

And for the umpteenth time, if Tory + Ukip = majority, then as long as Scotland return no Tories or ukippers, all we are doing is tinkering with the make up of the opposition.

Not true, if you take the shortest moment to reference reality.

The SNP will not align themselves in Westminster with either the tories (for obvious long held reasons in Scotland) or now-also Labour - and for the proof of that, just look at your own words of hatred towards them just above.

Because of the new-found Scottish vitriol towards Labour it would be the same electoral suicide for the SNP to align themselves in Westminster with either the tories or Labour.

As a result, the biggest party will get to take the win (either with or without official coalition partners), and Scotland voting SNP can cause that to be the tories,

And the SNP will choose to back the most divisive result on any policy it has to consider - that is, if they even bother to turn up. By not turning up they supported the bedroom tax; by not turning up they share close affinity with UKIP.

On the other hand , we can in theory, deprive Labour of an outright majority, but if we do they can form a coalition with the snp. I'd be perfectly happy with that outcome....& also quite amused

yeah, cos those spouting the sort of vitriol for Labour as you are will be dead keen to see the party they voted for cos they couldn't hold their nose and vote Labour to then cosy up with Labour, eh?

You're in cloud cuckoo-land.

The SNP will look after their electoral interests and pursue their long-held policy of indy irregardless of what might cause the least-bad effect onto Scotland, and that's done by refusing to co-operate with either major party, and blame England for everything that happens.

Edited November 1, 2014 by eFestivals

[LJS]

So, what a Snp landslide could possibly mean is a hung parliament where no party is able to form a workable coalition. This could lead to a minority government which is something we have, to the best of my knowledge, never done in this country. By that I mean, starring off in government in a minority. I think Labour ended up in a minority in the 70's once or twice.

The adversarial system makes it pretty hard to imagine such a government surviving for long. So the only realistic prospect of a Tory or Tory/Ukip government is if they have a majority of mps & that will be sod all to do with us guys north of the border.

As for labour, I don't hate them. It's closer to heartbreak than hatred! And I hope sincerely to be able to vote for them again one day.

I do not know how I will vote in the next general election. If their is a significant swing from Labour to snp, I would imagine, ivwill have an Snp mp. My vote will be green or Snp depending on how things pan out in the next few months.

Whilst we have all been having fun speculating on the back of a fairly remarkable opinion poll, it's hard to imagine things staying that way, & I'd imagine we'll still send a fair number of Labour mps to Westminster.

[LJS]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/01/scotland-vote-independence-poll-yougov?CMP=share_btn_fb

[LJS]

JIM Murphy will launch his campaign to become leader of Scottish Labour today by apologising for his party's ­failure to listen to voters.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/murphy-to-launch-his-campaign-with-apology-for-failures.25749010

Ha, Bleedin' Ha!

[russycarps]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/01/scotland-vote-independence-poll-yougov?CMP=share_btn_fb

Scots are very brave when sat in their armchairs.

[LJS]

Scots are very brave when sat in their armchairs.

I think that is fair criticism.

[eFestivals]

...that will be sod all to do with us guys north of the border.

1. Not true. The result is a UK result, and you input into the total result no less than anyone else.

2. the result will certainly have something to do with you guys north of the border, cos it's not like you're unaffected by the govt that gets returned.

3. if you really think there's no difference between the tories and Labour, such ignorance doesn't really deserve a vote.

I'd imagine we'll still send a fair number of Labour mps to Westminster.

there's good - fact-based - reasons to think that might happen.

Yet so very many are displaying the same nutty idea as you, that Scotland is somehow above the result that is created by the whole of the UK, that Scotland is somehow only responsible for its own votes when there is no part of the UK GE voting system that's called 'Scotland', and that it makes no difference to Scotland if the result is tory or Labour.

I respect each individual's right to their choice of vote, but I can't respect the mass stupidity that is being used to justify how it seems Scotland intends to vote.

Edited November 2, 2014 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/01/scotland-vote-independence-poll-yougov?CMP=share_btn_fb

On the back of the indyref, all that can sensibly be concluded from that poll is that yes-ers only respect polls that give them the result they like.

[eFestivals]

Scots are very brave when sat in their armchairs.

I think that is fair criticism.

Isn't it the same thing as was happening when Osborne first said you're not having a CU?

"Us Scots will do the exact opposite of what is suggested, no matter how sensible or stupid that might be"?

Edited November 2, 2014 by eFestivals

[LJS]

Isn't it the same thing as was happening when Osborne first said you're not having a CU?

"Us Scots will do the exact opposite of what is suggested, no matter how sensible or stupid that might be"?

No

[LJS]

1. Not true. The result is a UK result, and you input into the total result no less than anyone else.

2. the result will certainly have something to do with you guys north of the border, cos it's not like you're unaffected by the govt that gets returned.

3. if you really think there's no difference between the tories and Labour, such ignorance doesn't really deserve a vote.

As so often, you selectively quote me to make replying easier.

I was making a simple mathematical FACT.

If the Tories & Ukip have enough mp's to form a majority coalition government, assuming we don't suddenly elect more than 1 Tory, whether we return Snp or Labour mp's only alters the make up of the opposition. So we would not be bringing about a Tory government.

And I don't think I said thetebis NO difference between Tory & Labour. I think there is little practical difference.

Take the house of Lord's, I see ed is promising to bin it. How many times have heard this before? Why did they not get round to it last time?

[kaosmark2]

Take the house of Lord's, I see ed is promising to bin it. How many times have heard this before? Why did they not get round to it last time?

Well Prescott and other senior labour politicians of similar age wanted to keep the current system in '97 as they won by such a landslide they were sure they'd keep power for 12-20 more years - the period in which they would have senior roles - so they scrapped the promised electoral reform.

Labour and Ed both deserve large amounts of criticism, but they aren't both guilty of all of the others' mistakes.