The Dirty Independence Question

[kaosmark2]

A good idea

the SNP

support from the tories

Now who's in fantasy land?

[eFestivals]

Now who's in fantasy land?

the SNP have had plenty of support from the tories for their policies over the years.

It's a fact that the yes-ers don't like, because it spoils the (lack of) logic of their Labour hatred.

[kaosmark2]

the SNP have had plenty of support from the tories for their policies over the years.

It's a fact that the yes-ers don't like, because it spoils the (lack of) logic of their Labour hatred.

That wasn't what I was getting at

[LJS]

http://www.heraldscotland.com/mobile/comment/columnists/iain-macwhirter-plummeting-oil-price-stirs-troubled-waters.114828069

Quite a good article on oil prices & how they affect Scotland, the UK & the rest of the world.

On SLAB support, even if every single Labour supporters who voted yes deserted them, that would only account for about half of their loss of support, so clearly something else is going on.

[eFestivals]

On SLAB support, even if every single Labour supporters who voted yes deserted them, that would only account for about half of their loss of support, so clearly something else is going on.

Yep - some people in Scotland are listening only to the voices in their heads.

comfy is a great example. He "believes" lots of different things, all evidence free, all contrary to the real actual irrefutable facts.

And nothing that is presented to him impacts onto what he believes.

Truth only works if there's a rational mind open to accepting it.

[eFestivals]

Yep - some people in Scotland are listening only to the voices in their heads.

PS: just to be clear, this isn't a phenomenon only within Scotland.

Much the same is happening in England too, where large numbers of people are believing UKIP to be left wing just as so many Scots believe the SNP to be left wing.

In neither case do those people who believe themselves to be supporting the left wing actually support left wing ideas. It doesn't get more mad.

[kaosmark2]

Most of the populace like to think of themselves as slightly left-of-centre. Myself included. But considering how much more left-wing I am than 90% of voters, either I'm a rabid Stalinist, or most of the country is delusional.

Maybe both.

[eFestivals]

http://www.heraldscotland.com/mobile/comment/columnists/iain-macwhirter-plummeting-oil-price-stirs-troubled-waters.114828069

Quite a good article on oil prices & how they affect Scotland, the UK & the rest of the world.

If that classes as "a good article", no wonder Scotland is in madness.

It completely ignores the impact of low oil prices onto Scotland, and instead moves the arguments elsewhere to deflect from the impact onto Scotland and pretend it's a nothing.

As for this part...

As for independence, no one in their right minds would ever base an independent Scottish economy on this wildly fluctuating commodity, certainly not the Scottish Government.

It was 16% of the proposed iScottish budget FFS!

Edited December 18, 2014 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

The oil industry is used to these wild fluctuations and isn't going to close down the North Sea just yet.

I see that the writer hasn't heard about the job cuts in the oil industry that are being announced every day!

[eFestivals]

Anyway, volatility is simply an argument for an oil fund, like Norway's, which evens out fluctuations in the price over time and conserves value.

very true - but it's something Scotland can't have until it cuts its public spending by at least 20% - waaaay more cutting than the tories plan.

[eFestivals]

So I don't think Unionists will be laughing at Scotland for much longer. The cost of servicing UK debt is already more than £1bn a week and it can only get higher, paradoxically, as the price of oil falls. It's a curse all right. But not just for Scotland.

Oil revenues even before the price fall were less than half a percent of the UK's tax revenues. It's so small that it can almost be ignored - as can be demonstrated by Gideon's plans to give away hugely more per-annum in tax cuts in the next few years, which puts the loss of oil revenues into a better perspective.

As well as that, the UK is a net oil importer. The fall in prices reduces the UK's balance of payments deficit by more than the fall in govt revenues.

That fall in oil revenues isn't entirely covered off by the improved balance of payments deficit, but it goes a fair way to doing so, making the impact onto the UK far smaller than it might otherwise be.

These are the benefits of a diverse economy.

Edited December 18, 2014 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

I can't wait till March for the next set of GERS numbers. It might quieten down a few folks.

Even more interesting will be the 2014-15 numbers, where the poor state economic of an iScotland will become abundantly clear to even the fact-free-ers like comfy.

Edited December 18, 2014 by eFestivals

[kaosmark2]

Providing interesting dialogue to yourself Neil?

[eFestivals]

Providing interesting dialogue to yourself Neil?

I'm pulling out the interesting stuff from that "interesting article" LJS posted a link to.

Not that I expect him to actually address those comments and make a properly interesting conversation, because it seems that in his mind the only interesting conversations that can be had about Scotland are not the ones where the facts get addressed.

Edited December 18, 2014 by eFestivals

[russycarps]

I know. My point was that Norway`s economy " is more dependent on oil ".

Wrong. Norway's economy is actually dependent on the wise investment of the $850bn oil fund they've accrued over the decades thanks to the now dwindling oil.

Scotland's fund is in the red.

[5co77ie]

IS = Independent Scotland

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OGB4s1ypoFY

Edited December 18, 2014 by 5co77ie

[eFestivals]

Wrong. Norway's economy is actually dependent on the wise investment of the $850bn oil fund they've accrued over the decades thanks to the now dwindling oil.

Scotland's fund is in the red.

Nah, Norway's economy isn't even dependent on money from the fund - tho money from the fund dos get used now and then.

Norway runs pretty much a balanced budget before anything to do with the oil extraction taxes comes into things.

Tho that's starting to change due to a less active oil sector* employing less people, and its starting to concern the Norwegian govt - because even with a huge sovereign wealth fund they know that the books have to balance.

(* not the oil extraction taxes, but the tax from work required to extract the oil [income taxes, corp tax, etc])

[russycarps]

Nah, Norway's economy isn't even dependent on money from the fund - tho money from the fund dos get used now and then.

Norway runs pretty much a balanced budget before anything to do with the oil extraction taxes comes into things.

Tho that's starting to change due to a less active oil sector* employing less people, and its starting to concern the Norwegian govt - because even with a huge sovereign wealth fund they know that the books have to balance.

(* not the oil extraction taxes, but the tax from work required to extract the oil [income taxes, corp tax, etc])

yeh but that fellow said norway is more reliant on oil than scotland, and given the presence of the fund that's just not the case.

though they are being pressed to invest in more risky ventures so they'll probably end up being conned out of it by the american banks somewhere down the line

Edited December 18, 2014 by russycarps

[eFestivals]

yeh but that fellow said norway is more reliant on oil than scotland, and given the presence of the fund that's just not the case.

yeah, comfy says a lot of things that he "believes", tho they rarely have much attachment to the facts.

He's the indy campaign in a microcosm.

though they are being pressed to invest in more risky ventures so they'll probably end up being conned out of it by the american banks somewhere down the line

yep - they've just woken up to the fact that even with a huge sovereign fund they need a viable economy, and until they work out what that'll be they need to get better value out of the fund to cover the shortfalls.

There's no substitute for a self-sustaining economy. No amount of dreaming can change that for Norway, which makes the claims made of the far weaker Scottish position rather ridiculous.

[eFestivals]

http://www.heraldscotland.com/mobile/comment/columnists/iain-macwhirter-plummeting-oil-price-stirs-troubled-waters.114828069

Quite a good article on oil prices & how they affect Scotland, the UK & the rest of the world.

From that "interesting article"....

The oil industry is used to these wild fluctuations and isn't going to close down the North Sea just yet.

My comment on that snippet....

I see that the writer hasn't heard about the job cuts in the oil industry that are being announced every day!

Latest news ....

North Sea oil industry 'close to collapse'

Oil companies and service providers are cutting staff

It's such an interesting article, full of the normal no-facts indy-supporting bullshit.

[russycarps]

From that "interesting article"....

My comment on that snippet....

Latest news ....

North Sea oil industry 'close to collapse'

It's such an interesting article, full of the normal no-facts indy-supporting bullshit.

the Yes people people never did quite grasp that the physical presence of oil and the economic viability of extraction are two very different things.

[LJS]

I'm pulling out the interesting stuff from that "interesting article" LJS posted a link to.

Not that I expect him to actually address those comments and make a properly interesting conversation, because it seems that in his mind the only interesting conversations that can be had about Scotland are not the ones where the facts get addressed.

Ha ha!

I gave up trying to have a rational discussion with you ages ago. I can't win against your sophisticated debating techniques which include, presenting estimates guesstimates projections and opinions as facts, insulting any "expert" who doesn't support your view, claiming to know more about e.g. the EU than people who have studied it professionally or worked within it, misquoting and deliberately misrepresenting what I and others have said. No there is no point in attempting a serious discussion with you.

Funnily enough your style reminds me somewhat of the Rev Campbell of Bath. Hey that's not far from Bristol ... maybe you are the Dr Jeckyll to his Mr Hyde (or vice versa!!!)

I realise you are in the entertainment business & am perfectly content to play along but I entertain no hopes of any serious or mature debate

Now excuse me, I'm off to punch myself in the face

Edited December 18, 2014 by LJS

[LJS]

someone seriously discussing SLAB's current plight

http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/12/new-leader-old-troubles-labour-scotland/

[Comfy Bean]

I actually agree with this idea, but I don't think Scottish independence is the answer. I prefer a more federal system with devolution to a number of regions (larger than counties, smaller than countries), combined with a revamp of Westminster (voting system, house of lords, monarchy...).

Fair enough sir. We obviously hold opposite views on " the dirty independence question " but in some areas it looks like were not that far apart. At the very least we need a revamp of Westminster.

[Comfy Bean]

Norway are more dependent on funds that come from oil. Scotland is more dependent on oil extracted at this moment.

I take your point on the fund mate and sadly "we" are too late for that but this was your response to my post standing by my crazy notion regarding " Norway`s economy being more dependent on oil than Scotland`s ".

Depending on who you believe, preferably no-one on efests including myself , oil represents anywhere from 15-20% of Scotland`s GDP including secondary industries. I`ll blindly go with 18% as that is the figure most often quoted. Happy to go with 20% though for ease of arithmetic. Norway come in at around 30- 35% including secondary industries plus it accounts for a whopping 67% of exports. Some seem to think that Norway`s economy is " overwhelmingly dependent " on oil. There`s more on how the oil has had a negative effect on the rest of Norway`s economy here.....

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Norways-Oil-Decline-Accelerating.html