The Dirty Independence Question

[kaosmark2]

Don't be silly Neil, all nationalist parties are left-wing.

[eFestivals]

so, we are often told that one of the reasons the Saudis are keeping the oil price low is to combat fracking shale gas ... which seems to make sense as that would result in a fall in the price of oil. so, in order to prevent a fall in the price of oil, Saudi Arabia is causing the price of oil to fall... hmmm odd isn't it?

So it must be them trying to get at Putin because of his flagrant disregard for human rights & civil liberties cos we know what sticklers the old Saudis are for these... Hmmmm

I guess it must just be because they hate Alec Salmond

It's worth pointing out that Saudi/OPEC have done nothing to change the oil price. OPEC is pumping oil at the same rate as it's been doing for a while.

The change in prices is because of other players in the market, who are pumping much more oil than they used to.

OPEC's argument is that because they've changed nothing they should do nothing. They refuse to take the hit of lower production revenues to maintain the price for the benefit of those new players.

Saudi have just said that they're prepared for the price to fall as low as $20 a barrel - and they don't care, because they'll still be pumping at a profit while very few others will be.

As I type this, Brent Crude is trading at $60.11 (http://www.oil-price.net/), and the UK's oil revenues have entirely disappeared.

[eFestivals]

Don't be silly Neil, all nationalist parties are left-wing.

I'm almost wishing that Scotland had voted indy or had got a much bigger dose of instant devolution. It would bring a few folks back down to earth.

Talking of which, I've seen a lot of comment in the last few days which has suggested that Scottish polls should be ignored until March/April - when the next GERS numbers are published - and that they should only be taken seriously after that point.

The expectation with that idea is that reality will kick in and have people realise just how financially fucked an iScotland would be.

I'm far from convinced with that idea tho. It's very clear - from the likes of the many comments which say that the tax-cuts-for-the-rich SNP are left wing - that reality has little influence on the thinking of those people.

It's like how those people big up the Scottish Greens, who are currently polling at just 1% in Scotland (one quarter of the Scottish UKIP vote).... tho the Scots have never really liked their Greens; perhaps they'd do better if they were rebranded as the Deep Fried Mars Bar Party.

Meanwhile, for those who think indy is the only salvation for Scotland, nothing that any unionist party says can make an impact.

And yet ... in 2010, the SNP got 20% of the vote and the LibDems got 19%. The LibDems have fallen off a cliff now, but these new SNP voters are all ex-Labour? Are you sure?

And finally ... the vast majority in Scotland have no interest in another indyref any time soon. Have the 45% 37% cottoned on to that, or don't the views of Scottish people count?

[kaosmark2]

What most amuses me is that all these people are arguing that they've been screwed by the UK, but its their fellow Scots who voted to remain in the union.

Polls won't be particularly indicative yet. I wouldn't be surprised if there were a few more SNP votes, but I don't think Scottish Labour has died a death.

[russycarps]

It's worth pointing out that Saudi/OPEC have done nothing to change the oil price. OPEC is pumping oil at the same rate as it's been doing for a while.

The change in prices is because of other players in the market, who are pumping much more oil than they used to.

OPEC's argument is that because they've changed nothing they should do nothing. They refuse to take the hit of lower production revenues to maintain the price for the benefit of those new players.

Saudi have just said that they're prepared for the price to fall as low as $20 a barrel - and they don't care, because they'll still be pumping at a profit while very few others will be.

As I type this, Brent Crude is trading at $60.11 (http://www.oil-price.net/), and the UK's oil revenues have entirely disappeared.

they also don't want to risk losing market share by reducing production.

The financial times reported that the best guess for oil prices when scotland would have gone fully independent in 2018-2019 is $75 a barrel, a long way off the white papers hopes and dreams.

This is a disaster for scotland in any future referendum. The "but we've got oil!" argument is completely discredited. The future No campaign will have a much easier time now oil price volatility is more widely understood by the masses.

[eFestivals]

What most amuses me is that all these people are arguing that they've been screwed by the UK, but its their fellow Scots who voted to remain in the union.

ahhh, but a lot of those have blamed the English and other immigrants (I've seen it myself!), and claim that the (properly) Scottish voted indy.

For those types, it definitely isn't about that much proclaimed "civic nationalism".

Polls won't be particularly indicative yet. I wouldn't be surprised if there were a few more SNP votes, but I don't think Scottish Labour has died a death.

I think that for many that are proclaiming that Labour are dead in Scotland, Labour have definitely died a death.

Much like many of the UKIP voters in England, it's not about what the new object of their support are offering, but instead it's driven by a hatred of the alternatives.

After all, if those people are really left-wing and are actually open to policy platforms (rather than driven by another different motivation), they'd be voting left wing and not for a party that is more to the right.

[kaosmark2]

ahhh, but a lot of those have blamed the English and other immigrants (I've seen it myself!), and claim that the (properly) Scottish voted indy.

For those types, it definitely isn't about that much proclaimed "civic nationalism".

I'm a Scottish emigrant. Birth certificate/passport/etc. has me as born in Scotland. Would they have allowed me a vote in place of English immigrants?

Or am I also scum?

[eFestivals]

I'm a Scottish emigrant. Birth certificate/passport/etc. has me as born in Scotland. Would they have allowed me a vote in place of English immigrants?

Or am I also scum?

I think we both know the answer to that one.

Before the vote you were a clear danger to their indy-dream.

Your input was only wanted to swell the numbers of those with Scottish citizenship post-vote, so they could proclaim what a wonderful place iScotland must be.

[MichaelsBeard]

I'm a Scottish emigrant. Birth certificate/passport/etc. has me as born in Scotland. Would they have allowed me a vote in place of English immigrants?

Or am I also scum?

Ahh, but didn't you hear? Anyone who voted no was an unpatriotic coward who voted no based on an undying loyalty to the Union and who didn't possess enough intelligence to not be swayed by bullshit lies peddled by pro-union media?

Nothing to do with the economic absurdity of the Yes campaigns doctorine of course. Nothing at all.

Saying that anything other than voting yes was cowardly is a quite frankly twattish stance that belittles the democratic will and intelligence of 2 million of Scots fellow countrymen. The truth is they thought, quite rightly, that they get a better deal as things stand - especially pitted against the outlandish promises of Salmond et all that just didn't hold up to scrutiny.

I imagine it rankles with a hell of a lot lf people up here at the moment that their proud nation did vote to stay with the UK. Hope over fear? Nope. It was really about head over heart.

Edited December 23, 2014 by MichaelsBeard

[kaosmark2]

Saying that anything other than voting yes was cowardly is a quite frankly twattish stance that belittles the democratic will and intelligence of 2 million of your fellow countrymen.

Absolutely. It's a horrendous attitude.

I mean, I may have my own sense of contempt towards anyone who votes UKIP, and I certainly belittle their intelligence, but I accept their democratic right to do so.

[eFestivals]

Nothing to do with the economic absurdity of the Yes campaigns doctorine of course. Nothing at all.

I'm amused that Sturgeon has now recognised that was the case, but I've yet to see a single yes voter who is prepared to make the same admission.

When the glorious leader does reality but the followers don't, you know there's a shitstorm coming.

[kaosmark2]

I'm amused that Sturgeon has now recognised that was the case, but I've yet to see a single yes voter who is prepared to make the same admission.

When the glorious leader does reality but the followers don't, you know there's a shitstorm coming.

Hasn't comfy said he accepts that the economics of independence weren't worked out?

[eFestivals]

Hasn't comfy said he accepts that the economics of independence weren't worked out?

Perhaps (I forget) - tho if he has he's not really getting it. He's thinking that Norway is as oil-dependent as Scotland, when the difference in reality is vast.

[Comfy Bean]

Ahh, but didn't you hear? Anyone who voted no was an unpatriotic coward who voted no based on an undying loyalty to the Union and who didn't possess enough intelligence to not be swayed by bullshit lies peddled by pro-union media?

................

I imagine it rankles with a hell of a lot lf people up here at the moment that their proud nation did vote to stay with the UK. Hope over fear? Nope. It was really about head over heart.

Absolutely. It's a horrendous attitude.

I mean, I may have my own sense of contempt towards anyone who votes UKIP, and I certainly belittle their intelligence, but I accept their democratic right to do so.

OK folks, I`m confused. Michael is imagining things and Kaos is agreeing with these imagined things and describing them as being horrendous ?

I too wish to be outraged so could one of you please post the bit where someone on here actually said that the no voters were "unpatriotic cowards".

I too will join in with condemning their stupidity. I missed it myself but haven`t studied every post so will happily stand corrected.

IF.....no-one has ever posted such nonsense then, in a certain light, these posts above could be seen as being as offensive as any post, imaginery or otherwise, that actually said such a thing would have been.

Also, what`s wrong with describing Scotland as being a " proud nation " whatever your views on Indy were

[Comfy Bean]

Perhaps (I forget) - tho if he has he's not really getting it. He's thinking that Norway is as oil-dependent as Scotland, when the difference in reality is vast.

Let`s leave the goalposts where they were !

I said Norway`s economy was more dependent on oil than Scotland`s. I posted some figures and a link to a non-indy related article which backed up the figures. I`ve never claimed to be an expert on Norway`s economy so feel free to give me the correct numbers. From memory the article described Norway`s economy as being " overwhelmingly " dependent on oil...I think it was responsible for over 60% of exports as well as having a higher % of GDP than we have in Scotland.

What do you mean by " vast " ?

[Comfy Bean]

I'm a Scottish emigrant. Birth certificate/passport/etc. has me as born in Scotland. Would they have allowed me a vote in place of English immigrants?

Or am I also scum?

This is way below the normal standard of your posts sir

[Comfy Bean]

Hasn't comfy said he accepts that the economics of independence weren't worked out?

Mistakes were made for sure. Have we ever agreed on how Scotland`s economy matches up with ruk when we remove oil ? Generally speaking are the figures pretty close without oil ?

As we continue as a United Kingdom then I would imagine that our Govt will prop up the North Sea industries with tax breaks to see things through. It`s the least we can do for an industry that has provided so much. If/when the oil price goes up then we can look at this again.

By the next Indy vote I expect oil won`t be quite as significant ( if Sir Ian thinks there will be any left ). Hopefully !! Scotland will be moving onwards with renewables as we have the resources. The subsidies we are all currently paying should be invested in creating jobs and moving the technology forward. I`ve attached some numbers that show how things are moving in the right direction. These give the UK a chance of meeting EU targets. Not sure if there would eventually be fines to be paid without these improved figures.

44.4% when you include exports !

By the next vote, we need to be able to prove that oil is the " cherry on top ".

On the whole left / right thing ( have we not done this to death ), I`m with the SNP, Greens and the Welsh. Austerity and cuts are not the only way. It is my view that the SNP`s social policies are to the left of Labour and the Tories. This has not always been my view. In a bid to become " electable " to the middle englanders, my view is that the westminster parties are lurching to the right after UKIP. I disagree with, but understand why the Tories would be happy to go in that direction but Labour . The response from Scottish voters is clear to see from the polls.

http://www.thecourier.co.uk/business/news/renewable-and-fossil-fuel-power-generation-on-a-par-in-scotland-in-2013-1.744233

[MichaelsBeard]

OK folks, I`m confused. Michael is imagining things and Kaos is agreeing with these imagined things and describing them as being horrendous ?

I too wish to be outraged so could one of you please post the bit where someone on here actually said that the no voters were "unpatriotic cowards".

I too will join in with condemning their stupidity. I missed it myself but haven`t studied every post so will happily stand corrected.

IF.....no-one has ever posted such nonsense then, in a certain light, these posts above could be seen as being as offensive as any post, imaginery or otherwise, that actually said such a thing would have been.

Also, what`s wrong with describing Scotland as being a " proud nation " whatever your views on Indy were

I wasn't talking about you or anyone on here in particular but I live in Edinburgh and know lots who absolutely share that belief.

Edited December 23, 2014 by MichaelsBeard

[kaosmark2]

OK folks, I`m confused. Michael is imagining things and Kaos is agreeing with these imagined things and describing them as being horrendous ?

I too wish to be outraged so could one of you please post the bit where someone on here actually said that the no voters were "unpatriotic cowards".

I too will join in with condemning their stupidity. I missed it myself but haven`t studied every post so will happily stand corrected.

IF.....no-one has ever posted such nonsense then, in a certain light, these posts above could be seen as being as offensive as any post, imaginery or otherwise, that actually said such a thing would have been.

Also, what`s wrong with describing Scotland as being a " proud nation " whatever your views on Indy were

It hasn't happened here unless it was aeons ago and I missed it. I didn't want to tar you with such a brush. It has however, been said in a number of other places (that I've overheard in person). It's those that I'm criticising.

I don't agree with nationalism of any kind, I'm not proud to be English/Scottish/British/European whatever I'd be defined as. It's not my achievement to be born somewhere. However, I think the debate on national pride is a separate - albeit linked - issue.

[kaosmark2]

Mistakes were made for sure. Have we ever agreed on how Scotland`s economy matches up with ruk when we remove oil ? Generally speaking are the figures pretty close without oil ?

As we continue as a United Kingdom then I would imagine that our Govt will prop up the North Sea industries with tax breaks to see things through. It`s the least we can do for an industry that has provided so much. If/when the oil price goes up then we can look at this again.

By the next Indy vote I expect oil won`t be quite as significant ( if Sir Ian thinks there will be any left ). Hopefully !! Scotland will be moving onwards with renewables as we have the resources. The subsidies we are all currently paying should be invested in creating jobs and moving the technology forward. I`ve attached some numbers that show how things are moving in the right direction. These give the UK a chance of meeting EU targets. Not sure if there would eventually be fines to be paid without these improved figures.

44.4% when you include exports !

What obligation does a government have to any industry unless it directly provides a public service?

However, I think you're right that Scotland will be better placed economically next time there is an indy vote. Although I partially think that's because it couldn't have been much worse thought out.

On the whole left / right thing ( have we not done this to death ), I`m with the SNP, Greens and the Welsh. Austerity and cuts are not the only way. It is my view that the SNP`s social policies are to the left of Labour and the Tories. This has not always been my view. In a bid to become " electable " to the middle englanders, my view is that the westminster parties are lurching to the right after UKIP. I disagree with, but understand why the Tories would be happy to go in that direction but Labour . The response from Scottish voters is clear to see from the polls.

http://www.thecourier.co.uk/business/news/renewable-and-fossil-fuel-power-generation-on-a-par-in-scotland-in-2013-1.744233

I'm not sure the SNP are left of Labour. They're left of the Tories but I reckon that's in the same way that the Lib Dems are left of the Tories. A centre-right party that goes a bit further right than their ideals chasing middle class votes. I'd describe Labour as a centrist party that drifts right in pursuit of votes.

Personally, I'm planning to vote Green, but that's specific to my constituency. In most constituencies I'd vote Labour. In a 2-way narrow marginal seat I'd vote for whoever wasn't Tory/UKIP unless the personal candidate was Clegg, Alexander or Salmond.

[eFestivals]

Let`s leave the goalposts where they were !

I said Norway`s economy was more dependent on oil than Scotland`s. I posted some figures and a link to a non-indy related article which backed up the figures. I`ve never claimed to be an expert on Norway`s economy so feel free to give me the correct numbers. From memory the article described Norway`s economy as being " overwhelmingly " dependent on oil...I think it was responsible for over 60% of exports as well as having a higher % of GDP than we have in Scotland.

What do you mean by " vast " ?

Then it comes down to what you might mean by "dependent".

Can Norway's oil industry vanish and Norway's govt still balance the books without having to make massive cuts in public spending? Yes.

Is the same true for Scotland? No.

As i've already explained, Norway's govt runs a massive surplus, with that surplus the result of the oil.

Scotland's govt runs a massive deficit, with Scotland's oil not enough to change that.

The two countries are in completely different universes, not just different planets.

All this Norway bollocks from nats is hilarious. Norway has become the new arc of prosperity - because the last one worked so well, eh?

-----

I'm expecting the screams from Scotland to start getting loud about Northern Ireland getting control of Corp Tax while Scotland isn't getting that - and we've already had someone post here in complaint at that (was it LJS? i forget).

Which only gets to show how non-discerning nats are with their views.

It's Scotland's 'left-leaners' demanding that the rich get a tax cut, as St Alex has promised them, which Scotland's poor will pay for (but not those 'left-leaners'; they'll cheer cuts for the poor just as they did with free uni fees).

It's Scotland's 'left-leaners' demanding that Scotland joins the race to the bottom, where the future is low business taxes and high personal taxes (tho not high personal taxes if you earn a lot, as demonstrated by the SNP being against tax rises for the rich).

It's Scotland's 'left-leaners' being unable to see that on a small island no side can afford to be in a different place to the other, as that only allows the rich to run away with even more of the money.

But hey, just the mere fact of independence will cure all of Scotland's ills.

[LJS]

a wee opinion poll in the Guardian today

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/dec/26/labour-bloodbath-scotland-general-election-2015-snp-westminster

oh... & we want scrap Trident

[eFestivals]

a wee opinion poll in the Guardian today

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/dec/26/labour-bloodbath-scotland-general-election-2015-snp-westminster

You do know that the Gruaniad is bigging up the Labour "bloodbath" to try and shore up the LibDem vote, don't you?

It's worth remembering that it's an online poll, which the indyref proved in Scotland to not be as accurate as other polls.

All the same, having read the comments underneath, it's clear that the idea of politically sophisticated Scots has long gone if it ever existed.

Yes, a large chunk of Scotland now considers Labour to be "the red tories", but none of the thinking that leads those people there is applied elsewhere.

You can have the red tories increasing taxes on the wealthy, or you can have the tartan tories against that and instead reducing taxes on the wealthy.

You can have the red tories with an ideology of social solidarity and an even playing field, or you can have the tartan tories with an ideology of greater social and commercial competition.

You can have the red tories who vote against the bedroom tax in Westminster, or you can have the tartan tories who don't.

You can have the red tories who get condemned for lowering corp tax, or you can have the tartan tories who get a political free pass to make the rich richer.

You can have the red tories who devolve power to Scotland, or you can have the tartan tories who are centralising power within Scotland their control.

You can have the red tories who have - finally - shunned Murdoch, or you can have the tartan tories who have been licking Murdoch's arse (and are clearly shit at it! ... does Salmond call Rupert "boss" just as Nigel does?).

You can have the red tories who were lax on financial regulation, or you can have the tartan tories who were even laxer - proper raving-right tory! - on financial regulation.

You can have the red tories who want to avoid a race to the bottom, or you can have the tartan tories who want to start that race and take Scotland to the bottom.

Etc, etc, etc.

But the one that really matters is this one.....

You can have the tartan tories in Westminster and the real tories running Scotland, or you can have the red tories in Scotland and Westminster.

oh... & we want scrap Trident

That's stretching things a bit, but if stretching things is your bag here's a smaller bag for you to consider from the same poll.

Scotland is not interested in independence.

-----------

Meanwhile the numbers of numpties that think they'll be a Labour/SNP formal coalition is laughable.

That would be Labour voting to increase taxes on the rich, and the SNP blocking it.

In part I hope that coalition happens because the above would be priceless, and watching Salmond undermine Sturgeon would have a lot of comedy value too.

But what never gets said or even realised is this one: that the SNP as their central policy platform do not have the UK's best interests at heart, and so would be as acceptable for support in Westminster as would Sinn Fein.

Vote SNP to guarantee the marginalisation of Scottish interests within the UK.

Yep, I know you'd cheer that as a good thing just like the SNP will do - but do note what the polls say your countrymen think before you cheer too loudly, and do note how divided local interests stagnate and parochialise the political process with political self-interest and not the interests of the people. The only good thing is that it sets you up well to beg Westminster for ever-more, while your country fades.

Edited December 27, 2014 by eFestivals

[LJS]

You do know that the Gruaniad is bigging up the Labour "bloodbath" to try and shore up the LibDem vote, don't you?

It's worth remembering that it's an online poll, which the indyref proved in Scotland to not be as accurate as other polls.

All the same, having read the comments underneath, it's clear that the idea of politically sophisticated Scots has long gone if it ever existed.

Yes, a large chunk of Scotland now considers Labour to be "the red tories", but none of the thinking that leads those people there is applied elsewhere.

You can have the red tories increasing taxes on the wealthy, or you can have the tartan tories against that and instead reducing taxes on the wealthy.

You can have the red tories with an ideology of social solidarity and an even playing field, or you can have the tartan tories with an ideology of greater social and commercial competition.

You can have the red tories who vote against the bedroom tax in Westminster, or you can have the tartan tories who don't.

You can have the red tories who get condemned for lowering corp tax, or you can have the tartan tories who get a political free pass to make the rich richer.

You can have the red tories who devolve power to Scotland, or you can have the tartan tories who are centralising power within Scotland their control.

You can have the red tories who have - finally - shunned Murdoch, or you can have the tartan tories who have been licking Murdoch's arse (and are clearly shit at it! ... does Salmond call Rupert "boss" just as Nigel does?).

You can have the red tories who were lax on financial regulation, or you can have the tartan tories who were even laxer - proper raving-right tory! - on financial regulation.

You can have the red tories who want to avoid a race to the bottom, or you can have the tartan tories who want to start that race and take Scotland to the bottom.

Etc, etc, etc.

But the one that really matters is this one.....

You can have the tartan tories in Westminster and the real tories running Scotland, or you can have the red tories in Scotland and Westminster.

That's stretching things a bit, but if stretching things is your bag here's a smaller bag for you to consider from the same poll.

Scotland is not interested in independence.

-----------

Meanwhile the numbers of numpties that think they'll be a Labour/SNP formal coalition is laughable.

That would be Labour voting to increase taxes on the rich, and the SNP blocking it.

In part I hope that coalition happens because the above would be priceless, and watching Salmond undermine Sturgeon would have a lot of comedy value too.

But what never gets said or even realised is this one: that the SNP as their central policy platform do not have the UK's best interests at heart, and so would be as acceptable for support in Westminster as would Sinn Fein.

Vote SNP to guarantee the marginalisation of Scottish interests within the UK.

Yep, I know you'd cheer that as a good thing just like the SNP will do - but do note what the polls say your countrymen think before you cheer too loudly, and do note how divided local interests stagnate and parochialise the political process with political self-interest and not the interests of the people. The only good thing is that it sets you up well to beg Westminster for ever-more, while your country fades.

Congratulations on getting the job in the Labour Party press office.

[eFestivals]

Congratulations on getting the job in the Labour Party press office.

Congratulations on being able to admit that you're unable to knock down the truths I've just laid out in front of you.

Instead, you believe your Labour hatred is all that's needed to knock it down.

Applying yourself to policies? Nah, that's so old hat. Vote hatred to make the world a nice place.