The Dirty Independence Question

[eFestivals]

Not to worry, Neil, your beloved Tories amazing austerity will have turned round the uk economy so much that we will all be running a massive surplus by the time the next Indy ref comes along.

With the Scottish economy growing faster than England & unemployment falling faster, who knows how things will look in 6 or 10 years time?

Do feel free to bang on & on about the £15Bn. I'll continue to ignore it.

Not Scotland, the deficit is too big - and growing the gap with rUK don't forget! Edited September 8, 2015 by eFestivals

[LJS]

Oh look, someone else that never read the white paper.

Cos if you did you'd know there's no savings to be had from defence (or did alex lie to you?).

And the costs of London train sets and the like are excluded from the massive Scottish deficit... Or has Alex been lying to you again?

The £20m pa from the lords won't even scratch the surface of the new nationalist overhead charges - such as doubled the price (and added 4 years) to your lovely shiny new railway.

There are savings from defence and we are all paying for London trains but do carry on with your myths by all means.

[Comfy Bean]

Our finances are in a right mess. I don't believe that this can be magically fixed. You are making that up.

You are also making up 15billion year after year after year.

You keep repeating it as if in some way it will make people believe you.

I'm just pointing out that I doubt even you believe these figures. Pretty sure no-one does.

Thought of any potential savings yet?

[eFestivals]

There are savings from defence and we are all paying for London trains but do carry on with your myths by all means.

According to salmond there are no savings from defence.

And if the trainsets are included the Scottish deficit has just grown further.

No myths there at all, just solid provable facts

[eFestivals]

Our finances are in a right mess. I don't believe that this can be magically fixed. You are making that up.

You are also making up 15billion year after year after year.

You keep repeating it as if in some way it will make people believe you.

I'm just pointing out that I doubt even you believe these figures. Pretty sure no-one does.

Thought of any potential savings yet?

It's £15bn year after year after year for all the years there's no solution to it - and there's not. Economies cannot be artifically inflated above their natural sustainable level.

Get back to me when anyone has a plan. No one has one.

[LJS]

According to salmond there are no savings from defence.

And if the trainsets are included the Scottish deficit has just grown further.

No myths there at all, just solid provable facts

Explain to me the mechanism for removing Scottish tax revenue from whatever part of expenditure on the London train sets comes from general taxation.

That's right, no such mechanism exists.

As for defence, you're making it up, but no doubt you'll be happy to prove me wrong. Go on.

[LJS]

It's £15bn year after year after year for all the years there's no solution to it - and there's not. Economies cannot be artifically inflated above their natural sustainable level.

Get back to me when anyone has a plan. No one has one.

Maybe you should carve your beloved £15Bn on a tablet of stone as it will clearly last for ever.

I mean it worked for Ed, didn't it?

[eFestivals]

Explain to me the mechanism for removing Scottish tax revenue from whatever part of expenditure on the London train sets comes from general taxation.

That's right, no such mechanism exists.

As for defence, you're making it up, but no doubt you'll be happy to prove me wrong. Go on.

There IS a mechanism for removing the costs of London trainsets from the Scottish deficit. It's called GERS.

And I see you either did not read or did not understand Alex's white paper's defence section.

And so you prove why so many might vote yes.

[russycarps]

If you spend more than you make there's a shortfall. In scotlands case it's £15bn.

There's an easy solution though, massive cuts or massive tax increases.

So sorry for the bad news. But then you already knew this didn't you. You just choose not to let this fact be known when you are peddling the scottish indy dream (nightmare).

Lies, denial, deceit. The raving nationalist way.

[eFestivals]

If you spend more than you make there's a shortfall. In scotlands case it's £15bn.

There's an easy solution though, massive cuts or massive tax increases.

So sorry for the bad news. But then you already knew this didn't you. You just choose not to let this fact be known when you are peddling the scottish indy dream (nightmare).

Lies, denial, deceit. The raving nationalist way.

No no no, how dare you put words in LJS's mouth.

He's certain that the SNP will have a solution for the missing £15Bn before they call a new indyref..... Which of course means he knows there's no new indyref coming.

 

This "people's party" who are "progressive" also know it's not coming soon - or ever - which is why they've banned all discussion about another one, like good little democrats ... or perhaps they've merely realised the 'intellectual depth' of many of their supporters?

 

No currency, no financial plan, and no support for the nothing on offer. That's the real state of play.

Edited September 9, 2015 by eFestivals

[LJS]

No no no, how dare you put words in LJS's mouth.

He's certain that the SNP will have a solution for the missing £15Bn before they call a new indyref..... Which of course means he knows there's no new indyref coming.

This "people's party" who are "progressive" also know it's not coming soon - or ever - which is why they've banned all discussion about another one, like good little democrats ... or perhaps they've merely realised the 'intellectual depth' of many of their supporters?

No currency, no financial plan, and no support for the nothing on offer. That's the real state of play.

Not so long since you were moaning about the SNP wanting another Indy ref, now you're missing because they dint want one.

Make your mind up man.

Edited September 9, 2015 by LJS

[eFestivals]

Not so long since you were moaning about the SNP wanting another Indy ref, now you're missing because they dint want one.

Make your mind up man.

 

Oh dear, is your understanding really that bad?

 

My issues are with duplicity and stupidity.

 

If you're really daft enough to go for it, you go for it, I'll be very happy for you.

 

(and i'll be even happier for the extra £10bn to be spent around rUK on people's needs and not on bribes to the doing-OKs)

Edited September 9, 2015 by eFestivals

[gary1979666]

So good points above, though I'm amazed the Snippers are bringing up the trainsets and defence again.  It's been covered many times here that these were excluded from the GERS numbers.

 

But LJS made a very fair point that the next referendum is likely a few years away and a lot could change.  Maybe Gideon will have eliminated the deficit - not sure what impact that would have on Indy - as overall it might be gone (or very close) but across the UK regions it'll still be surplus for London/SE and deficit everywhere else, including Scotland.

 

Also a lot of the figures bandied about pre election take us up to 2020.  Take the £30bn NHS hole that will be plugged by efficiency savings and the £8bn funding pledge made at the GE.  If that was forecasted out beyond 2020, then the £30bn gets even bigger, as the population ages and more money has to be found - a UK wide problem, so more dosh that rUK and iScot need to find.

 

The other points about the current polls - yes they are current, so can only really be take as a snapshot.  Note that in the media at the moment, there's next to no scrutiny about a potential iScotland.  Or put another way, Project Fear is having a bit of a nap.  So come another referendum there'll be more questioning of what an iScotland might mean and that would have an impact on the polls.

[Stash]

Explain to me the mechanism for removing Scottish tax revenue from whatever part of expenditure on the London train sets comes from general taxation.

That's right, no such mechanism exists.

As for defence, you're making it up, but no doubt you'll be happy to prove me wrong. Go on.

 

GERS excludes expenditure that is not relevant to Scotland. Where there are national infrastructure projects, it uses calculations of benefit to Scotland and attributes that percentage of the expenditure to Scotland. Local projects in other regions are completely excluded. 

 

The last GERS assumed that the benefit of HS2 would be at 2% of the total expenditure of HS2 that year, which was worth approximately 6.8m. For other rail expenditure, it counts only rail projects that take place in Scotland, so projects like Crossrail don't apear at all in GERS. 

[eFestivals]

So good points above, though I'm amazed the Snippers are bringing up the trainsets and defence again.  It's been covered many times here that these were excluded from the GERS numbers.

I know. Anyone might think snippers have an aversion to the facts, what with these facts having to be told them again and again and again.

Even more amusing is that they don't even believe the word of the man they followed to where they are, instead prefering to invent things.

And then of course there's the claim they've all read the white paper, when very clearly so very few have done - else they wouldn't come out with the shite they do.

 

But LJS made a very fair point that the next referendum is likely a few years away and a lot could change.  Maybe Gideon will have eliminated the deficit - not sure what impact that would have on Indy - as overall it might be gone (or very close) but across the UK regions it'll still be surplus for London/SE and deficit everywhere else, including Scotland.

oh, a lot can change, but what won't change is for Scotland's economy to grow by 20% over and above the economy in the rest of the UK.

 

As LJS occasionally points out, Scotland's economy is a solid performer, able to on-average match the rest of the UK - which funnily enough gets to mean it's not neglected as the nat-myth says.

 

Where Scotland falls down is not with its revenue raising but with its revenue spending. The only chance Scotland has of balancing the books is by cutting back on it's spending - you know, austerity, making the books balance.

 

If Scotland wants to self-fund it can do, but not with some bollocks plan that says (as was presented to Parliament just a month or two back) "you'll pay us lots of money till we're rich, and then we won't pay back that lots of money" - as Thatcherist as it gets. Me me me!

 

And so Scotland doesn't self-fund, simply because it cannot afford to self fund.

 

The other points about the current polls - yes they are current, so can only really be take as a snapshot.  Note that in the media at the moment, there's next to no scrutiny about a potential iScotland.  Or put another way, Project Fear is having a bit of a nap.  So come another referendum there'll be more questioning of what an iScotland might mean and that would have an impact on the polls.

Exactly. This is why the polls right now are meaningless.

But project fear? Nah. You point out to a friend the mistake you can see they'll be making, and explain why. If some are too dumb to get it or have swallowed the myth-book, that's then their own problem if they follow thru.

[eFestivals]

GERS excludes expenditure that is not relevant to Scotland. Where there are national infrastructure projects, it uses calculations of benefit to Scotland and attributes that percentage of the expenditure to Scotland. Local projects in other regions are completely excluded. 

 

The last GERS assumed that the benefit of HS2 would be at 2% of the total expenditure of HS2 that year, which was worth approximately 6.8m. For other rail expenditure, it counts only rail projects that take place in Scotland, so projects like Crossrail don't apear at all in GERS.

he knows all of this.

He posts the same bullshit again and again anyway, because bullshit is all he has against the cold hard facts of reality.

[LJS]

he knows all of this.

He posts the same bullshit again and again anyway, because bullshit is all he has against the cold hard facts of reality.

 

GERS is not a budget.  Its "primary objective is to estimate a set of public sector accounts for Scotland through detailed analysis of official UK and Scottish Government finance statistics". GERS estimates the contribution of revenue raised in Scotland toward the goods and services provided for the benefit of the people of Scotland..."

 

(my emphasis)

 

I am not highlighting the word emphasis to suggest that GERS figures are inaccurate but they are effectively a "what if" for separating out Scottish revenue & expenditure. We don't live in "what if" & in the world we live in, any expenditure that comes out of general taxation (e.g. London's train set)  will have a small contribution from me. It's not a deal breaker - just a small example of an area where we might save some money. 

 

As far as defence is concerned the figures I have seen are Scotland's contribution to UK defence budget £3.3 Bn. The suggested defence budget in iScotland was £2.5Bn. I make that £0.8Bn less. 

 

in other news I see here's another poll showing a majority for Indt (53-47). Just a poll. I haven't paid much attention to the news today because I wish to hear no more about our Glorious Queen. 

[Stash]

...any expenditure that comes out of general taxation (e.g. London's train set)  will have a small contribution from me...

 

Not entirely accurate.

 

Yes you pay into the pot, but you take more out of the pot to fund local projects. That is the deficit that Neil and others keep reminding you about.

 

So you cant really claim a net contribution towards the "London train set" you keep harping on about. 

 

EDIT: Of course if you were talking about the whole UK and not trying to compartmentalise everything as Scotland vs the rest, then you might have a point. But when the crux of your point is that Scotland can make savings by loosing it's safety blanket, then you are only kidding yourself. 

Edited September 9, 2015 by Stash

[eFestivals]

GERS is not a budget.  Its "primary objective is to estimate a set of public sector accounts for Scotland through detailed analysis of official UK and Scottish Government finance statistics". GERS estimates the contribution of revenue raised in Scotland toward the goods and services provided for the benefit of the people of Scotland..."

Yes, GERS is an estimate.

That doesn't mean it's a load of rubbish, it means it's the best that can be done with the limited data available.

It's methodology favours Scotland rather than penalises it; it doesn't take a genius to realise that. There's simply not a better way of doing it with the limited data.

 

any expenditure that comes out of general taxation (e.g. London's train set)  will have a small contribution from me. It's not a deal breaker - just a small example of an area where we might save some money. 

 

It saves you 'invisible' money. The 'saved' money doesn't reduce anything of the only number which exists as a measure of Scotland's deficit.

 

There is no salvation for Scotland's finances from that ... and it's about the best you have else you wouldn't have brought it up.

 

The only real thing which will make a difference to Scotland's precarious financial position is huge spending cuts or huge tax increases  or a heavy mix of both - VERY heavy!!

 

 

As far as defence is concerned the figures I have seen are Scotland's contribution to UK defence budget £3.3 Bn. The suggested defence budget in iScotland was £2.5Bn. I make that £0.8Bn less.

That 'suggested defence budget' included some wonderful bit likes "rUK will provide us with refuelling planes for free" and "rUK will do our spying for us for free" and other such laughable claims.

So yes, I guess Scotland could operate it's claimed forces on that budget, but only if they were the most pointless military forces in the world. They'd be new jokes to replace the ones like the Italian tank with 12 reverse gears.

 

in other news I see here's another poll showing a majority for Indt (53-47). Just a poll.

Yep, just a poll.

Even in your own mind, utterly worthless and meaningless without the financial plan to carry thru a successful independence.

Show me the 50% who'll vote themselves poorer and i'll show you a big group of people who don't understand what they're voting for.

Edited September 9, 2015 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

... contribution towards the "London train set" ...

The problem with this line is that it's never balanced with "and no agricultural subsidies for London" and the like.

It's soundbite over substance, a way of deflecting real discussion of the facts.

[LJS]

Yes, GERS is an estimate.

That doesn't mean it's a load of rubbish, it means it's the best that can be done with the limited data available.

 

 which is why I said "I am not highlighting the word emphasis to suggest that GERS figures are inaccurate" in the bit of my post you strangely omitted to quote.

 

eFestivals, on 09 Sept 2015 - 6:26 PM, said:

Yep, just a poll.

Even in your own mind, utterly worthless and meaningless without the financial plan to carry thru a successful independence.

Show me the 50% who'll vote themselves poorer and i'll show you a big group of people who don't understand what they're voting for.

 

 

As you know, I will address the the finances of iScotland in depth come the next referendum. 

 

On polls, it would be easy to look at the polls conducted in the past year (http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-vote-in-the-in-the-scottish-independence-referendum-if-held-now-a#line) and say there has been no significant change

 

 

However, if you look a little closer, You will see that No has never recorded more than 55% and yes has never recorded less than 45%. In other words, every single poll is either the same or better for yes than the Indyref result. Taken with the polls in the couple of years leading up to the iRef (http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/should-scotland-be-an-independent-country#line) It looks rather like a long term slow but apparently inexorable drift towards Indy. 

Edited September 9, 2015 by LJS

[eFestivals]

As you know, I will address the the finances of iScotland in depth come the next referendum.

Will you?

You refused to consider any of it last time. Warnings about a volatile oil price was bluster, banks heading south was lies.

You continue with an unshakable blind faith in the SNP having a new perfect plan when not a soul has a clue, and based wholely in the idea that Scots can do what no others can.

You addressing it will be you mindlessly repeating 'yes we can' right up until you realise you can't

Edited September 9, 2015 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

which is why I said "I am not highlighting the word emphasis to suggest that GERS figures are inaccurate" in the bit of my post you strangely omitted to quote.

eFestivals, on 09 Sept 2015 - 6:26 PM, said:

As you know, I will address the the finances of iScotland in depth come the next referendum.

On polls, it would be easy to look at the polls conducted in the past year (http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-vote-in-the-in-the-scottish-independence-referendum-if-held-now-a#line) and say there has been no significant change

However, if you look a little closer, You will see that No has never recorded more than 55% and yes has never recorded less than 45%. In other words, every single poll is either the same or better for yes than the Indyref result. Taken with the polls in the couple of years leading up to the iRef (http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/should-scotland-be-an-independent-country#line) It looks rather like a long term slow but apparently inexorable drift towards Indy.

Drift towards bankruptcy.

Even your version of it happening requires a solidly defined plan.

So why does no one have that plan? Is it because they're so clever they can make it up in the five minutes before announcing a new ref?

[LJS]

Drift towards bankruptcy.

Even your version of it happening requires a solidly defined plan.

So why does no one have that plan? Is it because they're so clever they can make it up in the five minutes before announcing a new ref?

Tell you what Neil, let's just wait & see. I am on record as saying the SNP needs to go into the next referendum with a credible plan for Scotland's future. I am confident that I can rely on you to point out if they fail to do so.

Meanwhile, the inexorable drift to independence continues...

[LJS]

Will you?

You refused to consider any of it last time. Warnings about a volatile oil price was bluster, banks heading south was lies.

You continue with an unshakable blind faith in the SNP having a new perfect plan when not a soul has a clue, and based wholely in the idea that Scots can do what no others can.

You addressing it will be you mindlessly repeating 'yes we can' right up until you realise you can't

I have rarely read such nonsense...even from you.