The Dirty Independence Question

[eFestivals]

12 hours ago, LJS said:

Here is the SNP's rationale for their rather underwhelming tax proposals..

We back the 50p top rate of tax across the UK, but to do it in Scotland alone could put millions in revenues at risk.

I know, it's fantastic, isn't it?
(fantastic' not as 'good', but as 'incredible')

They might have well have said "devolution doesn't work, independence won't work".

After all, even if Scotland had "all of the economic levers" that indy-ists say they need, *exactly* the same problem exists if more money is attempted to be taken from the richest by any means at all.

(it's worth remembering that unlike other national borders, this would be a national border people can cross and immediately have full citizenship rights in the other nation [if going from north to south, at least] ... making it like there's no border at all in people's heads, just like now).

And then you come on to the fact that a self-funding Scotland would need to raise an extra £15Bn a year for everything to stay as rich as now in Scotland, and things start to get mightily difficult ... because that would not only be the rich paying more, it would also have the poorest paying more, and where they could also leave Scotland to get a better deal.

Anyone engaging their brain should be realising that Scotland now is the best Scotland there can be. Without the £15Bn from Barnett Scotland is fucked.

Today, seen everywhere, the indy-ists say "independence can't work" as they back the SNP to the hilt.

Edited March 23, 2016 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

12 hours ago, LJS said:

I have never given anyone a free pass

Really?

Then you'll be able to point me to your critical analysis of the laughable economic ideas in the white paper.

Oh dear.

 

[eFestivals]

12 hours ago, lost said:

So if we are going to end up with different rates of tax from 2017 how does this work? Is it based on the employers or employees location? If I live in England and commute to a job in Scotland or live in Scotland and commute to a job in England will employers now need to run two payrolls or will people have to start filing a tax return to either reclaim or pay the extra tax?

It's based on the place of main residence. That's the easy bit, tho.

Cos while a number of tax things have been (from next April) devolved to Scotland, some things related around that haven't been ... so, for example, the amount of tax relief on pension contributions gets very messy, because that works from the Westminster-set threshold for higher rate, and not the Holyrood-set threshold. Administering that difference is going to be a nightmare.

[LJS]

33 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

I know, it's fantastic, isn't it?
(fantastic' not as 'good', but as 'incredible')

They might have well have said "devolution doesn't work, independence won't work".

After all, even if Scotland had "all of the economic levers" that indy-ists say they need, *exactly* the same problem exists if more money is attempted to be taken from the richest by any means at all.

(it's worth remembering that unlike other national borders, this would be a national border people can cross and immediately have full citizenship rights in the other nation [if going from north to south, at least] ... making it like there's no border at all in people's heads, just like now).

really? I'm not entirely sure that was your stance during the run up to indyref. Other than that you have just repeatedthe points i already made (but omitted them) so they seemed like your own.

33 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

And then you come on to the fact that a self-funding Scotland would need to raise an extra £15Bn a year for everything to stay as rich as now in Scotland, and things start to get mightily difficult ... because that would not only be the rich paying more, it would also have the poorest paying more, and where they could also leave Scotland to get a better deal.

Anyone engaging their brain should be realising that Scotland now is the best Scotland there can be. Without the £15Bn from Barnett Scotland is fucked.

Today, seen everywhere, the indy-ists say "independence can't work" as they back the SNP to the hilt.

You yourself have acknowledged that the £15bn is unlikley to be the figure if & when we try for indy again - so please stop banging on about it.

[LJS]

31 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

Really?

Then you'll be able to point me to your critical analysis of the laughable economic ideas in the white paper.

Oh dear.

 

yawns...

 

I wasn't voting for a white paper.,,

[eFestivals]

8 minutes ago, LJS said:

really? I'm not entirely sure that was your stance during the run up to indyref.

I refer you to UK Citizenship rules, which no one in the indyref suggested would change.

(in fact the snippers gloried it, well-aware they could run away from the disaster they wanted to cause)

One thing which would be 'nationised' tho is pensions. Coming to England from Scotland after indy wouldn't get those Scots pensions from the UK, they'd be tied to Scottish pensions.

 

8 minutes ago, LJS said:

You yourself have acknowledged that the £15bn is unlikley to be the figure if & when we try for indy again - so please stop banging on about it.

Uh? The Scottish deficit is growing even when oil is excluded. Why do you think it might shrink?

The only reason it's going to shrink is because of cuts from Westminster - which you oppose. You're personally demanding that the deficit is fixed forever.

Edited March 23, 2016 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

5 minutes ago, LJS said:

yawns...

 

I wasn't voting for a white paper.,,

in which case you'd have been happy to give it fair criticisms.

Which you never did, and won't even do now.

Was that because you didn't give the SNP a free pass, or because you did?

[LJS]

45 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

in which case you'd have been happy to give it fair criticisms.

Which you never did, and won't even do now.

Was that because you didn't give the SNP a free pass, or because you did?

Why would I bother with that? I laid out clearly the reasons I was pro Indy. None of them were "the white paper is amszing''  I posted on here specifically in support of Indy. Joining all you guys in trashing the white paper would have added nothing to the debate.

[eFestivals]

5 minutes ago, LJS said:

Why would I bother with that? I laid out clearly the reasons I was pro Indy. None of them were "the white paper is amszing''  I posted on here specifically in support of Indy. Joining all you guys in trashing the white paper would have added nothing to the debate.

you also spent endless time defending the white paper from fair criticism.

You don't defend something you know is bollocks. You clearly didn't think it was bollocks.

Even now you try and support the unsupportable, with your wild hopes that the Scottish economy can be grown by enough to make up the £15Bn shortfall, when the reality cannot be other than massive cuts.

Edited March 23, 2016 by eFestivals

[LJS]

46 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

you also spent endless time defending the white paper from fair criticism.

You don't defend something you know is bollocks. You clearly didn't think it was bollocks.

Even now you try and support the unsupportable, with your wild hopes that the Scottish economy can be grown by enough to make up the £15Bn shortfall, when the reality cannot be other than massive cuts.

You clearly don't recall the article you linked to & gave approval to which argued that by the time was any likelihood of Indy the alleged deficit would likely be in the region of £9bn. But you do like your £15bn.

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, LJS said:

You clearly don't recall the article you linked to & gave approval to which argued that by the time was any likelihood of Indy the alleged deficit would likely be in the region of £9bn. But you do like your £15bn.

the deficit gap will be about £9Bn, yeah ...  because it always has been. That's the Barnett money.

If the total deficit is lower that'll be due to Georgie-boy's cuts, which you oppose.

 

[LJS]

23 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

the deficit gap will be about £9Bn, yeah ...  because it always has been. That's the Barnett money.

If the total deficit is lower that'll be due to Georgie-boy's cuts, which you oppose.

 

So you admit your £15bn is bollocks.

Thanks

[eFestivals]

12 minutes ago, LJS said:

So you admit your £15bn is bollocks.

Thanks

Nope, the £15Bn is the number Scotland would have to deal with today if it tried to self fund today.

It remains relevant for all the time the deficit is of that size.... and you do know that the deficit for 2015-16 is bigger than £15Bn, don't you?

(and the GERS-stated deficit for 2015-16 will be approximately £1Bn *LESS* than the true number, because GERS won't roll-in the tax rebates that have been given).

[LJS]

 

8 hours ago, eFestivals said:

Nope, the £15Bn is the number Scotland would have to deal with today if it tried to self fund today.

Whether or not this is true is entirely irrelevant to any sort of reality

8 hours ago, eFestivals said:

t remains relevant for all the time the deficit is of that size.... and you do know that the deficit for 2015-16 is bigger than £15Bn, don't you?

I don't know that & neither do you . 

8 hours ago, eFestivals said:

(and the GERS-stated deficit for 2015-16 will be approximately £1Bn *LESS* than the true number, because GERS won't roll-in the tax rebates that have been given).

No idea what that means 

 

& absolutely none of you obfuscations avoid the fact that you have not addressed my point, which I shall repeat (I'm helpful that way) 

8 hours ago, eFestivals said:

You clearly don't recall the article you linked to & gave approval to which argued that by the time was any likelihood of Indy the alleged deficit would likely be in the region of £9bn. But you do like your £15bn.

It's time the tale were told
of how you took a deficit
and you made it up

It's time the tale were told
of how you took a deficit
and you made it up
you made it up

starvationin the  mountains
hunger in  the glens
we're buggered now

Fifteen billion with you
well, I wouldn't say so
oh you have said
you hit the nail on the head
and you were so wrong!

Fifteen billion with you
I wouldn't say so
oh people said
that you were easily led
and they were quite-right

It's time the tale were told
of how you took a deficit
and you made it up

It's time the tale were told
of how you took a deficit
and you made it up
you made it up

Starvation in the mountains
hunger in the glens

We're buggered now

Fifteen billion with you
oh I wouldn't say so
oh people see no truth in you
So they do

I dreamt about you last night
and I fell out the EU twice
you can roast and stuff us
like a bubblyjock

But take me to the democracy of your bedroom
was something that you often said
too poor, please
you're the bee's knees
but so am I

growing in the mountains
working in the glens
we'll take it slowly

Fifteen billion with you
I wouldn't say so
oh people see no worth in you
oh but I do

 

 

[zahidf]

scotland dodged a bullet

 

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/mar/24/ifs-scotland-debts-three-times-greater-uk

[eFestivals]

happy Independence Da ... oh. Hang on.

Happy Dependence Day.

That £15Bn? You're welcome.

 

[eFestivals]

13 hours ago, LJS said:

Whether or not this is true is entirely irrelevant to any sort of reality

No. That £15Bn is the number Scotland would have to deal with today if it tried to self fund today.

13 hours ago, LJS said:

I don't know that & neither do you . 

I do. Some of us are paying attention to the advance numbers, and are able to compare and add up.

The deficit for 2015-16 is bigger than £15Bn.

The gap that Scotland's on-shore economy needs to make up is growing and not shrinking.

13 hours ago, LJS said:

& absolutely none of you obfuscations avoid the fact that you have not addressed my point, which I shall repeat (I'm helpful that way) 

The current GERS deficit are the numbers the SG would have used to negotiate its independence with. Oh dear. I don't think the 10% deficit would have got you great terms with the 3% fiscal pact-ers.

If GERS is wrong, you're calling Salmond and Sturgoen liars.

You're also rejecting the idea that Scotland contributes around the same tax revenues as rUK.

If GERS is wrong, you're claiming that things in Scotland are much worse than your glorious leaders have told you, and that you've been claiming.

Stop crying in your porridge and lying to yourself.

[LJS]

1 hour ago, zahidf said:

scotland dodged a bullet

 

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/mar/24/ifs-scotland-debts-three-times-greater-uk

Good old Severin (Neil can tell you how good he is) doesn't appear to know the difference between debt & deficit 

[gary1979666]

Playing devil's advocate, if the £15bn is wrong, then how wrong is it likely to be?  I'd say 20% is a pretty big margin of error (an arbitrary figure), and that would still give a range of £12-18bn.  It would take a massive swing to make the actual figure palatable...and the bigger that margin, then the higher it could swing in the other direction.

[LJS]

3 minutes ago, gary1979666 said:

Playing devil's advocate, if the £15bn is wrong, then how wrong is it likely to be?  I'd say 20% is a pretty big margin of error (an arbitrary figure), and that would still give a range of £12-18bn.  It would take a massive swing to make the actual figure palatable...and the bigger that margin, then the higher it could swing in the other direction.

The point is not that it is wrong. It's that it is irrelevant. It attempts to show how Scotland did last year under the present arrangement. Scotland is unlikely to achieve independence for at the very least 5 years. A lot can change in 5 years.

[eFestivals]

13 minutes ago, LJS said:

Good old Severin (Neil can tell you how good he is) doesn't appear to know the difference between debt & deficit 

says the man who once linked to an article as 'proof' that claimed Scotland would have none of the UK's debt if indy.

 

[LJS]

1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

says the man who once linked to an article as 'proof' that claimed Scotland would have none of the UK's debt if indy.

 

Not as far as I can remember, I didn't. Do feel free to prove me wrong.

 

Meanwhile...

 

https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/3736/first-extensive-survey-of-yes-campaigners-finds-they-are-far-to-the-left-of-the-snp

[eFestivals]

7 minutes ago, LJS said:

The point is not that it is wrong. It's that it is irrelevant. It attempts to show how Scotland did last year under the present arrangement. Scotland is unlikely to achieve independence for at the very least 5 years. A lot can change in 5 years.

If "a lot" can happen in 5 years to make a significant difference, that can only be via Chinese levels of growth.

You're back to the bullshit, to try and pretend there's a workable solution. There isn't.

The only reason the total Scottish deficit will shrink (if it does) will be via Gidiot's spending cuts.

The 'deficit gap' (the greater deficit in Scotland compared to UK) will continue to remain at ar0ound £9Bn for all of the while *YOU* demand that Westminster gives Scotland extra spending money ... and YOU demand that money stays the same, so YOU demand the deficit remains as it is.

[eFestivals]

18 minutes ago, gary1979666 said:

Playing devil's advocate, if the £15bn is wrong, then how wrong is it likely to be?  I'd say 20% is a pretty big margin of error (an arbitrary figure), and that would still give a range of £12-18bn.  It would take a massive swing to make the actual figure palatable...and the bigger that margin, then the higher it could swing in the other direction.

gary....

You can play devils advocate. You can be wholely sympathetic, you can apply the best economic principles.

It makes fuck all difference. The snippers prefer fantasy based on absolutely nothing.

They won't even acknowledge that the ultimate cause of the deficit is the Barnett consequential to cover the extra costs of service delivery in Scotland which snippers demand Scotkand keeps, preferring instead to believe that nasty Westminster forces Scotland to spend the extra to keep Scotland on its knees.

What I'm saying is: don't expect a conversation on the facts or sense or reasonableness. Facts and figures are too inconvenient when fantasy is always better.

 

[eFestivals]

8 minutes ago, LJS said:

Not as far as I can remember, I didn't. Do feel free to prove me wrong.

PMSL at your sudden bad memory. I've been taking the piss out of you for that ever since you did it, but just today you've forgotten.

You don't remember the link you made to WoS about debt in Scotland? Do I really need to find it to prove your bullshit?

 

8 minutes ago, LJS said:

Meanwhile...

https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/3736/first-extensive-survey-of-yes-campaigners-finds-they-are-far-to-the-left-of-the-snp

yep, they're so left wing that they vote for the party who sucks up Gideon's policies to implement in Scotland, and get fooled by the anti-austerity claims of the woman who's admitted she'd cut like Gideon, who think it's evil to use the tax regime for redistribution to the poor, and who support freebies for the middle classes at the expense of the poor.

So left wing they love Tory and Blairite policies.