The Dirty Independence Question

[eFestivals]

10 hours ago, LJS said:

When Scotland had control of nothing the population declined steadily.

When Scotland got a wee bit of control over some things the trend reversed & population started to rise.

Imagine if we had control of everything.

Yeah, it was Scotland that signed up the EU (an EU that Scotland would never have joined if the SNP's say was law) and caused that immigration.

Those nasty nasty English made perfect-Scotsmen leave their homeland - even in the days of the past you long for as a glorious Scotland.

[Comfy Bean]

22 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

 

Both these truths are Scottish truths - you know, Scotland run by Scots for the Scots, and from the mouths of Scots - but apparently they're both the lie of an Englishman.

FFS. Scotland is doomed, doomed I say - whether indy or not - if it's populated with brains like yours.

A man who is stabbed often survives - but that doesn't mean that man welcomes the avoidable pain of being stabbed.

 

 

3 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

Those nasty nasty English made perfect-Scotsmen leave their homeland - even in the days of the past you long for as a glorious Scotland.

[eFestivals]

comfy, the stuff LJS was brushing off are Scottish truths - not something i've invented myself - and are of 100% relevance to the indy debate.

Any country is only able to do what they can afford.

If money isn't there that was there (the £10bn barnett money), Scotland gets poorer.
If money has to be 'banked' as a national reserve rather than spent on public services (the costs of establishing a currency), Scotland gets poorer.

In the snippers version of the world, poor countries have chosen to be poor - because Scotland will be able to live beyond its resources simply because that's the democratic choice of Scotsmen.

When your own version of the world credits Scotsmen as special and able to avoid the realities of the world, I'm going to take the piss out of YOU. Not Scottish people, YOU!!!!

[Comfy Bean]

You will, of course, be able to quote me as crediting Scotsmen as " special " or Scotland as " glorious ". I won`t hold my breath 

I accept that you believe you are taking the piss out of me.

[eFestivals]

30 minutes ago, comfortablynumb1910 said:

You will, of course, be able to quote me as crediting Scotsmen as " special " or Scotland as " glorious ". I won`t hold my breath 

You've said the £10bn deficit gap will magically cured within ten years. That would take a super special Scotland, because growth like that just isn't achievable in a developed economy.

Likewise, LJS has said the economics work differently in an independent Scotland, which will mean the £10bn deficit gap magically disappears, another super-special claim.

You didn't have to hold your breathe  for long.

I'll also point out that you've claimed in the past that deficit gap is the result of poor government from Westminster, when the facts prove you wrong. Unjustified bigotry at another nation is....?

 

[LJS]

1 hour ago, eFestivals said:

You've said the £10bn deficit gap will magically cured within ten years.

No he hasn't.

1 hour ago, eFestivals said:

That would take a super special Scotland, because growth like that just isn't achievable in a developed economy.

Good job he didn't say it then.

1 hour ago, eFestivals said:

Likewise, LJS has said the economics work differently in an independent Scotland,

No I haven't.

1 hour ago, eFestivals said:

which will mean the £10bn deficit gap magically disappears, another super-special claim.

Which I haven't made.

1 hour ago, eFestivals said:

You didn't have to hold your breathe  for long.

I'll also point out that you've claimed in the past that deficit gap is the result of poor government from Westminster, when the facts prove you wrong. Unjustified bigotry at another nation is....?

 

The "facts" don't apportion blame for the alleged deficit gap. Some of us have perhaps speculated that if Scotland is the basket case it is often claimed to be, it might be reasonable to question whether those running the basket for the past 50 years may take some responsibility.

[LJS]

5 hours ago, eFestivals said:

wherever it originated, presumably the unhappy quotes of the Syrians are true?

If you read the rest of the stuff I posted, it would appear not. In addition I've just heard one of the refugees interviewed on radio 5 - he was glowing & very positive about Bute.

5 hours ago, eFestivals said:

Bute may be lovely, but that doesn't mean that people used to city life will be happy there - and the vast majority of Syrians are used to city life. It's great that places like Bute are willing to take refugees, but that doesn't mean it's necessarily great for the Syrians who get sent to Bute.

Rothesay, the capital of Bute may not be Paris or London but it is a small town with a population of about 5,000, with all the amenities you would expect in a town of that size. It is less than 90 minutes by ferry & train to Glasgow so it is far from isolated or remote. The major issue for the refugees will, I would imagine, be lack of employment opportunities. Rothesay's heyday came as a tourist resort for Glaswegians. Not many choose to holiday in this country anymore. 

5 hours ago, eFestivals said:

The only thing of relevance here is that it helps outline how much more difficult it is for Scotland to be attractive to immigrants, because it has fewer places where they might settle where those immigrants might establish the sort of new life they imagined. The attraction of 'the west' to immigrants (from within the EU or out of it) tends to be the modernity of the cities and not the rural backwaters (where Scotland has proportionally many more than the rest of the UK, due to its geographic position and its natural geography).

Scotland may have lots of remote (&beautiful) places but over 70% of the population live in the central belt which is densely populated and this is where the majority of immigrants live. The "rural backwaters" are mostly favoured by English immigrants escaping the rat-race.

[LJS]

And if you hurry you can still make it to Butefest this weekend

[Comfy Bean]

7 hours ago, eFestivals said:

You've said the £10bn deficit gap will magically cured within ten years. That would take a super special Scotland, because growth like that just isn't achievable in a developed economy.

Likewise, LJS has said the economics work differently in an independent Scotland, which will mean the £10bn deficit gap magically disappears, another super-special claim.

You didn't have to hold your breathe  for long.

I'll also point out that you've claimed in the past that deficit gap is the result of poor government from Westminster, when the facts prove you wrong. Unjustified bigotry at another nation is....?

 

I'm not sure that " magically cured " or " super special Scotland " are direct quotes from me so I'll leave you to just making stuff up.

Happy to discuss my opinions but this would require you to debate what my specific opinions are not make up stuff I said to suit your specific grievance agenda.

I've just reflected on your posts from earlier about stabbing and nasty nasty English and perfect glorious Scotsmen. You have an active imagination, I'll give you that :-)

[Comfy Bean]

4 hours ago, LJS said:

And if you hurry you can still make it to Butefest this weekend

I suspect Neil wouldn't like colonel mustard as I've them play at a couple of independence and cnd rallies. They are quality but Butefest clashes with kendal calling :-)

[russycarps]

My complaint about living in bute would be that it isn't remote enough!

Give me the isle of staffa anyday...

Edited July 28, 2016 by russycarps

[Comfy Bean]

3 minutes ago, russycarps said:

My complaint about living in bute would be that it isn't remote enough!

Give me the isle of staffa anyday...

I understand it has a cave, so will be popular when we gain our independence.

[LJS]

8 minutes ago, russycarps said:

My complaint about living in bute would be that it isn't remote enough!

Give me the isle of staffa anyday...

Not often I agree with you Russy. But an otherwise uninhabited Island would be the prefect place for you. Perhaps you could spend your time prospecting for oil?  

[russycarps]

More bluff and bluster from the imperial London press

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/29/no-boost-in-support-for-scottish-independence-despite-brexit-new/

[russycarps]

Well it looks like the oil prices aren't going up anytime soon. Presumably st nicola will be addressing this soon, what with all her talk of independence.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/31/texas-shale-oil-has-fought-saudi-arabia-to-a-standstill/

[eFestivals]

I see chokka has repeated some myth busters, that deal with some of the words heard round here on a regular basis.

http://chokkablog.blogspot.co.uk/2016/07/gers-deniers.html

[eFestivals]

Just a general observation......

When I first started doing efestivals, the lady who used to run T in the Park press office slapped my knuckles for using cliche words - of tartan and bagpipes - when talking of Scotland. She explained that Scotland was a modern country that rejected the stereotypes, and I took it on board.

Today I've just had a press release about Belladrum, announcing their new tartan, and this follows on from a T in the Park email earlier this year (and perhaps one last year, I can't be certain now) also using the stereotypes.

So what's going on? Was I misinformed back then, or is Scotland regressing back into the parochial stereotypes?

Or perhaps, are tartan and bagpipes Scotland's new hope of growing it's economy to make up the missing £10Bn?

[LJS]

1 hour ago, eFestivals said:

Just a general observation......

When I first started doing efestivals, the lady who used to run T in the Park press office slapped my knuckles for using cliche words - of tartan and bagpipes - when talking of Scotland. She explained that Scotland was a modern country that rejected the stereotypes, and I took it on board.

Today I've just had a press release about Belladrum, announcing their new tartan, and this follows on from a T in the Park email earlier this year (and perhaps one last year, I can't be certain now) also using the stereotypes.

So what's going on? Was I misinformed back then, or is Scotland regressing back into the parochial stereotypes?

Or perhaps, are tartan and bagpipes Scotland's new hope of growing it's economy to make up the missing £10Bn?

Tartan, shortbread & bagpipes all exist. So do lots & lots of other things (including teacakes, haggis & deep fried Mars bars.)

Belladrum is a commercial venture. Proper tartan is a premium product with, I assume, a healthy profit margin. 

One press release in 12 years is probably quite a good analogy for the significance of tartan in modern Scotland.

Now when they launch belladrum shortbread...

P.s. do you want me to bring you back a Bella tartan kilt? Or perhaps a nice pair of tartan trews?

Edited August 2, 2016 by LJS

[eFestivals]

Just now, LJS said:

One press release in 12 years is probably quite a good analogy for the significance of tartan in modern Scotland.

but the point I was making is that it's not just the one, and after 10+ years of nothing clichéd - and a positive rejection of the clichés -  it's now seemingly the done thing again.

 

[eFestivals]

So, Sturgeon is unexpectedly launching her Edinburgh comedy show today. Is it at the Fringe?

It's an odd move to suddenly change the date by such a large amount, so I guess we might consider why.

There's two things which immediately spring to mind, so perhaps it's one of those?

1. this part of August is traditionally called 'the silly season' in regard to the press, where the (self) important world of politicians and journalists are on holiday and the amateurs are in charge of the papers. Perhaps she's thinking that they'll feel short of the skills to comment on it, and so leave it mostly unreported. Alternatively, perhaps she feels it will be missed by the public when they're on holiday or enjoying the summer? Whatever the reason, there's the suggestion that this time of year is a good time to bury bad news.

2. she's thinking ahead, and is already aware that the next years numbers will be a decent improvement on the numbers which will be announced today, and next years will fit nicely around the ongoing brexit/will-there-be-a-2nd-ref shenanigans.

With regard to 2, there's certainly good reason to think the next year's numbers will be a decent improvement over these ones, as these ones are smack bang in the middle of the restructuring of the oil industry around the huge price fall - tho if that's the rationale, Sturgeon is likely to be solidly stuck with the same 'dependent on oil' thing that helped land the fatal blows 2 years ago.

Today's numbers aren't likely to be great. The general expectation is that they'll be much like the last ones, but with the loss of the £2.2Bn oil revenues that those had, so a bit worse. But anyway, that's a convo for after they're revealed.

[russycarps]

oops

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/24/scotlands-huge-deficit-blows-15bn-hole-in-case-for-independence/

 

 

[eFestivals]

And yet not anything unexpected.

We all know that Scotland costs more to run for both geographic and demographic reasons, whilst economic performance in Scotland is not exceptional.

The only way out of the deficit is via (big) cuts in spending &/or (much) higher taxes. As an illustration, it's a greater amount than all of the cost of Scottish education.

Given that Scots shied away from even a 1% rise in income taxes, there's no appetite for the medicine and consequently no appetite for indy. Never say never - tho i reckon it would take a truly exceptional event (cos voting brexit wasn't it) - but I reckon that claimed "inevitable" is starting to look pretty weak.

If Scotland wants more money to spend its best hope is a Labour govt in Westminster.

[russycarps]

Yep, st nicola must be devastated that the predicted chaos hasnt yet happened after brexit. 

Still, I'm sure the germans will be more than happy for scotland to become independent and write them a big fat £15bn cheque each year.

No really....

 

 

 

[eFestivals]

1 hour ago, russycarps said:

Yep, st nicola must be devastated that the predicted chaos hasnt yet happened after brexit. 

Still, I'm sure the germans will be more than happy for scotland to become independent and write them a big fat £15bn cheque each year.

No really....

I've got to admit, i'm looking forwards to the somersaults that it looks like Sturgeon will have to make, having over-hyped things with her "highly likely".

There's no sign of any brexit bounce in indy support, and in fact it looks like there might have been a small effect the other way - perhaps because people have a better idea that 'project fear' is largely project fact, or that voting as an 'up yours' isn't necessarily sensible.

That over-hyping of the oil revenues last time is going to be a costly mistake for the SNP, cos any future indy predictions will need to discount them entirely in light of what's gone on in the last few years - and a bounce-back in oil revenues is the only hope in the short term for an improvement in the numbers.

[LJS]

2 hours ago, eFestivals said:

I've got to admit, i'm looking forwards to the somersaults that it looks like Sturgeon will have to make, having over-hyped things with her "highly likely".

There's no sign of any brexit bounce in indy support, and in fact it looks like there might have been a small effect the other way - perhaps because people have a better idea that 'project fear' is largely project fact, or that voting as an 'up yours' isn't necessarily sensible.

I'm not quite sure how you draw that conclusion. There have only been 4 polls since Brexit, 3 of which showed a lead for Indy and 1 which showed a lead for Nindy. All leads were fairly narrow (4-6%) so I would suggest its a bit early for any conclusions to be drawn. 

2 hours ago, eFestivals said:

That over-hyping of the oil revenues last time is going to be a costly mistake for the SNP, cos any future indy predictions will need to discount them entirely in light of what's gone on in the last few years - and a bounce-back in oil revenues is the only hope in the short term for an improvement in the numbers.

I'll leave you to speculate about the inner workings of Sturgeon's mind. I aws interested to see that "on-shore" revenue rose by almost £2bn last year. This was offset by a similar fall in "off-shore" revenue. Next year "off-shore revenue can't realistically fall any lower (i was £60million last year) so if Scotland is able to grow it's "on-shore" revenue by a similar amount, it is likely to see the (GERS) deficit start to fall.