The Dirty Independence Question

[LJS]

7 hours ago, eFestivals said:

There is no case that can be made.

Oh, yes there is.

7 hours ago, eFestivals said:

The very fact that you think something can be magic-ed up from somewhere to fill a £9Bn hole only shows how detached and unthinking you are.

The very fact that I don't think that shows how boring and unimaginative you are.

7 hours ago, eFestivals said:

There is no case that can be made,

Oh, yes there is.

7 hours ago, eFestivals said:

If it's so easy, why IYO is only super-special Nicola able to do what no one else is able to? Nicola is more super-special than all other Scots? It must be, if only she can come up with a plan (that no one has seen, and no on ever will).

I've come up with it. as previously demonstrated with Scotland's consistently reducing on-shore "deficit"

7 hours ago, eFestivals said:

There is no case that can be made,

Oh, yes there is.

7 hours ago, eFestivals said:

which is why she's not making one.

When there is a referendum, she will.

7 hours ago, eFestivals said:

There is no case that can be made,

Oh, yes there is.

7 hours ago, eFestivals said:

which is why she tried the line of "there's more to indy than the economics".

Of course there is.

7 hours ago, eFestivals said:

(but no one bought it, so it's definitely not about the money, right? )

There is no case that can be made,

Oh yes there is.

7 hours ago, eFestivals said:

which is why she's already changed the bollocks she spouts from "indyref if brexit" to "indyref if hard brexit".
(and still no one bit )

I don't think she's quite said that. There may have been a change of emphasis: no more.

7 hours ago, eFestivals said:

There is no case that can be made,

Oh, yes there is.

7 hours ago, eFestivals said:

which is why she's now desperately scrambling to make an impossible-for-UK-to-accept case for super-special status for a non-indy Scotland, so she can fall back to her normal refrain of "nasty nasty Westminster".

When she hopes she'll have created enough new false grievance that she might start again.

Thanks for your opinion. I disagree.

7 hours ago, eFestivals said:

All because there is no case that can be made.

Oh 

Yes

There

Is.

[eFestivals]

12 minutes ago, LJS said:

Oh, yes there is.

then where is it?

If it could be made someone would be making it. You can't have indy without it.

Perhaps you're waiting for someone else - Westimnster, perhaps - to do it for Scotland cos you indepentalmentalists need someone to hold your hand?

15 minutes ago, LJS said:

The very fact that I don't think that shows how boring and unimaginative you are.

So if you don't think it'll appear by magic you'#ll be able to tell me where the missing £9bn is then.

No? So just magic then.

15 minutes ago, LJS said:

I've come up with it. as previously demonstrated with Scotland's consistently reducing on-shore "deficit"

PMSL - get back to me in 70 years then, and we'll see if you're half way there yet.

Currently Scotland hasn't reduced anything of the deficit gap. It went the other way in the most recent GERS, cos revenues fell against the UK average.

18 minutes ago, LJS said:

When there is a referendum, she will.

Which will either be "be poorer for Scotland" or a lie.

There's no where the money can come from but from your own pocket.

19 minutes ago, LJS said:

I don't think she's quite said that. There may have been a change of emphasis: no more.

It very specifically changed from a new ref being 'highly likely' if the UK voted out and Scotland voted in to being 'highly likely' if Scotland was outside the single market.

She changed her stance after the polls revealed greater support for another ref if hard brexit.

But she also quickly noticed that her changed stance didn't increase that support further, and in fact it dropped back again.

Some of us pay attention.

She's now basing her hopes on her 'alternatives' which we've yet to see tho Salmond has already made clear the general thrust of them - that would require a customs border between Scotland and rUK.

I'm not aware of any soveriegn state that operates internal customs borders, so perhaps you'd like to show me one to demonstrate it's not an impossible idea?

So it's not about workable alternatives, it's about alternatives that Westminster WILL reject. It's about Sturgeon trying to shit-stir with bollocks (which I'm sure you'll insist is the most sensible political plan in the history of mankind )

 

[OneLittleFish]

I do wonder how quickly the Scottish taxpayer will see the money returned from the Scottish Government's grant to T in the Park to ensure that the festival would take place at Strathallan in '15, '16 and '17.

[LJS]

4 hours ago, OneLittleFish said:

I do wonder how quickly the Scottish taxpayer will see the money returned from the Scottish Government's grant to T in the Park to ensure that the festival would take place at Strathallan in '15, '16 and '17.

 

 

[OneLittleFish]

Just now, LJS said:

 

 

Ha ha, very good, topical bants all that.

 

However, I thought the SNPs very vague mantra was "bairns not bombs" a little bit back. Surely it's not changed to "Cronyism not Children" already?

[LJS]

1 minute ago, OneLittleFish said:

Ha ha, very good, topical bants all that.

 

However, I thought the SNPs very vague mantra was "bairns not bombs" a little bit back. Surely it's not changed to "Cronyism not Children" already?

You want bombs?

 

They are much more expensive than TITP.

[LJS]

On 23/11/2016 at 6:02 PM, eFestivals said:

then where is it?

If it could be made someone would be making it. You can't have indy without it.

I've been making the economic case for Indy for 3 years or so. I am well aware that you haven't liked it or agreed with it but then i haven't like or agreed with your case. 

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Perhaps you're waiting for someone else - Westimnster, perhaps - to do it for Scotland cos you indepentalmentalists need someone to hold your hand?

No. see above. 

Quote

So if you don't think it'll appear by magic you'#ll be able to tell me where the missing £9bn is then.

Theere is no missing £9Bn. But I have even played by your rules & pretended there is & shown you how it will reduce. 

Quote

No? So just magic then.

Quote

PMSL - get back to me in 70 years then, and we'll see if you're half way there yet.

Did you study arithmetic at school?

Quote

Currently Scotland hasn't reduced anything of the deficit gap. It went the other way in the most recent GERS, cos revenues fell against the UK average.

You & Chokka are obsessed with the deficit gap. this is absolutely irrelevant once we become independent. The absolute deficit is important & I have clearly demonstrated using the figures you swear by how the onshore deficit is significantly & relentlessly decreasing.  

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Which will either be "be poorer for Scotland" or a lie.

Or not.

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There's no where the money can come from but from your own pocket.

This is a gross over-simplification of the situation BUT i haev consistnetly made it clear that I am perfedtly happy to pay more tax (from my pocket) to achieve a fairer society.

Quote

It very specifically changed from a new ref being 'highly likely' if the UK voted out and Scotland voted in to being 'highly likely' if Scotland was outside the single market.

Politicians do politics shock!!!

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She changed her stance after the polls revealed greater support for another ref if hard brexit.

There have been very few polls in the past few months. I don't think she is daft enough to base her policy on a couple of polls.

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But she also quickly noticed that her changed stance didn't increase that support further, and in fact it dropped back again.

No poll ever conducted since indy ref has shown support for indy at below 45% 

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Some of us pay attention.

I think all of us do,Neil.

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She's now basing her hopes on her 'alternatives' which we've yet to see tho Salmond has already made clear the general thrust of them - that would require a customs border between Scotland and rUK.

Although we won't have one between Ireland & the UK

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I'm not aware of any soveriegn state that operates internal customs borders, so perhaps you'd like to show me one to demonstrate it's not an impossible idea?

I'm not aware of any sovereign state that runs 4 football teams & 4 rugby teams one of which crosses international borders other than the UK.

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So it's not about workable alternatives, it's about alternatives that Westminster WILL reject. It's about Sturgeon trying to shit-stir with bollocks (which I'm sure you'll insist is the most sensible political plan in the history of mankind )

As I have said many times, I suspect you are right in the sense that there probably isn't a workaround that will meet Scotland's needs & be acceptable to the UK government. Does that mean Nic shouldn't try? - I don't think so. Indeed I think she would be facing much more criticism if she wasn't trying. 

I don't doubt some of it is playing politics although, of course, I woudl phrase it differently from you.   

.p.s.in case you haven't seen it, Dr Dalzell who wrote "Beyond GERS" has a piece on WOS responding to criticism (primarily from Chokka)  of his original article.

 

as you know, I don't link to WOS but I'm sure you can find your way there if you wish. 

just in case you think I am endorsing every word he says... I'm not   - I haven;t done much more than skim over it.

 

 

Edited November 25, 2016 by LJS

[eFestivals]

7 hours ago, LJS said:

 

 

wow, that's never happened before, LJS posting a video because he doesn't want the awkward talked about.

It's very definitely not the same as a two year old putting his fingers in his ears and going la-la-la-I'm-not-listening, is it? :P

 

[eFestivals]

6 hours ago, LJS said:

I've been making the economic case for Indy for 3 years or so. I am well aware that you haven't liked it or agreed with it but then i haven't like or agreed with your case. 

first you made it on the basis of the white paper, which you insisted was sound. That went well, didn't it? 

And today, you say the Scottish economy will grow to sort it out, while rejecting the SNP's best forecast from that same white paper which said it would take about 120 years to happen.

Today you point at GERS and say it shows progress, when in fact GERS says that Scotland has gone backwards with addressing the deficit gap - which only shows how much you don't understand of the basics.

You've made the same case anyone could make by writing fantasy numbers on a piece of paper. Yep, they equal the necessary 'zero' that you need the answer to be, but the whole things is factless and hopeless fantasy.

If this sort of intellect outlines iScotland's future, then it really is too small too wee and too stupid to succeed.

Thankfully Scotland does have better than you, which is very probably why indy won't happen. Not everyone is so willing to eat their own shit.

Edited November 25, 2016 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

6 hours ago, LJS said:

Theere is no missing £9Bn. But I have even played by your rules & pretended there is & shown you how it will reduce. 

There's a £9Bn deficit gap with the "failing" whole-UK finances. Which means Scotland is failing by more than Osborne failed, in your own logic.

And you've shown nothing at all apart from nasty Westminster tory cuts onto Scotland, which do nothing to reduce the deficit gap which is the amount of the Barnett supplement.

GERS shows the deficit gap increasing and not reducing. Even what you claim to have identified doesn't show what you claim.

[eFestivals]

6 hours ago, LJS said:

This is a gross over-simplification of the situation BUT i haev consistnetly made it clear that I am perfedtly happy to pay more tax (from my pocket) to achieve a fairer society.

but you have objected to Scotland's poorest paying less tax because they're too poor to not deserve a bigger decrease in their taxes.

And now you advocate their destitution via Indy, because you want Scotland to be Greece.

 

[eFestivals]

7 hours ago, LJS said:

No poll ever conducted since indy ref has shown support for indy at below 45% 

I was talking about the polling showing support for another indyref. How's that going?

Why is Sturgeon running away from and changing the wording of her "highly likely"? Is that because of her confidence or because she does the facts you don't?

[eFestivals]

7 hours ago, LJS said:

Although we won't have one between Ireland & the UK

Who said we wont? FFS.

EU rules say that a customs border has to exist with those outside of the single market. If the UK is outside of the single market, Ireland are required to put that customs border in place, exactly as Scotland would be required to have a custom border with rUK if Scotland was to be within the single market and rUK out of it.

If there's no need of a customs border there's no need for Scotland to have a different status towards the EU in the first place.

And people think kippers are stupid with what they know of the EU? Jeeezus.

 

7 hours ago, LJS said:

I'm not aware of any sovereign state that runs 4 football teams & 4 rugby teams one of which crosses international borders other than the UK.

Fucking hell LJS you're outdoing yourself for stupid.

If that means anything towards the EU, care to tell me how come those four football and rugby teams don't have EU membership?

Meanwhile you admit that Scotland would be asking for something which doesn't exist in the world - because it's utter stupidity to internally divide a country's trade - but which you think is the sensible solution.

Do you have a brain, or are you addicted to stupidity? You're being 100% kipper.

[Comfy Bean]

7 hours ago, LJS said:

 

You & Chokka are obsessed with the deficit gap. this is absolutely irrelevant once we become independent.

 

Good point well made.

Neil do you agree or atleast see the point that LJS is making here ?

Many up here are not as obsessed with England as some folks think 

More relevant to compare our economy with somewhere of similar size, population, geography etc.

On GERS, it would be foolish to dismiss the figures as assuming the method of measurements are consistent then they are useful estimates to compare year on year performance. In my opinion it would also be foolish to use them with any certainty to predict how Scotland would perform under it`s own Government when no longer part of the United Kingdom. You can`t say as a matter of fact that our economy would perform better away from Tory policies and leadership just as you can`t say that it would stay exactly the same or get worse.

Unless you have a crystal ball of course then carry on regardless 

Sorry to see T finally roll over but in my view it`s for the best. I put in a brief appearance last year and had a great time ( the site was is really scenic ). They did a great job of fixing the traffic issues with the one way system but the camp site battles and the walking involved to accommodate the site problems make me think it`s for the best they take a time out. Went most years so will miss it. Much worse news for me personally was the death of Wickerman the week before  Great memories over many years.

Sad scenes if Scotland doesn`t have a major music fest going forward.

I don`t blame Westminster.

 

[LJS]

21 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

first you made it on the basis of the white paper, which you insisted was sound.

No I didn't.

21 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

And today, you say the Scottish economy will grow to sort it out, while rejecting the SNP's best forecast from that same white paper which said it would take about 120 years to happen.

I don't & it didn't.

21 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

Today you point at GERS and say it shows progress, when in fact GERS says that Scotland has gone backwards with addressing the deficit gap - which only shows how much you don't understand of the basics.

Is Scotland's notional onshore deficit increasing or decreasing?

21 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

You've made the same case anyone could make by writing fantasy numbers on a piece of paper. Yep, they equal the necessary 'zero' that you need the answer to be, but the whole things is factless and hopeless fantasy.

I have never arrived at zero.

21 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

If this sort of intellect outlines iScotland's future, then it really is too small too wee and too stupid to succeed.

Thankfully Scotland does have better than you, which is very probably why indy won't happen. Not everyone is so willing to eat their own shit.

Oh look, a gratuitous insult. you are poisoning this debate.

 

[eFestivals]

7 hours ago, LJS said:

You & Chokka are obsessed with the deficit gap. this is absolutely irrelevant once we become independent. The absolute deficit is important & I have clearly demonstrated using the figures you swear by how the onshore deficit is significantly & relentlessly decreasing.  

The deficit is decreasing due only to tory cuts.

If the UK ever reduces it's deficit to zero, Scotland will be left with a deficit of around 6%.-7% (of approx £9Bn) which is over three times a sound target deficit.

The only way to reduce that to a sound deficit is with further cuts - bigger than the tories imposed.

I just love how the tory-haters have become the advocate of bigger cuts than the tories.

 

[eFestivals]

8 minutes ago, comfortablynumb1910 said:

Good point well made.

Neil do you agree or atleast see the point that LJS is making here ?

Do YOU understand the point he's making?

He's saying Scotland will balance the books by making cuts bigger than the tories are making.

FFS.

 

[eFestivals]

8 minutes ago, comfortablynumb1910 said:

On GERS, it would be foolish to dismiss the figures as assuming the method of measurements are consistent then they are useful estimates to compare year on year performance. In my opinion it would also be foolish to use them with any certainty to predict how Scotland would perform under it`s own Government when no longer part of the United Kingdom. You can`t say as a matter of fact that our economy would perform better away from Tory policies and leadership just as you can`t say that it would stay exactly the same or get worse.

Unless you have a crystal ball of course then carry on regardless 

No crystal ball is needed, just adding up numbers and substracting numbers.

Changing to indy changes nothing of the numbers. The numbers for govt revenues or for govt spending only change if the SG does something that changes them.

If govt revenues are to increase, that means the govt has to take more money in taxes from people in Scotland.

If govt spending is to decrease, that means the govt has to make cuts to spending.which removes services from people in Scotland.

So if spending cuts are the answer, tell me what spending will be cut and by how much.

So if tax rises are the answer, tell me what taxes will be raised and by how much.

That's the version without the crystal ball, so please show me you're not using a crystal ball by detailing the actions the SG will take to make the books balance.

[eFestivals]

15 minutes ago, LJS said:

Is Scotland's notional onshore deficit increasing or decreasing?

is Scotland's 'block grant' increasing (in real terms) or decreasing (in real terms)?

You've spent years banging on about the evil cuts that the evil tories are forcing on Scotland. If that's not happening now, I'll enjoy seeing you switch your hatred for that to Sturgeon.

 

[Comfy Bean]

6 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

Do YOU understand the point he's making?

He's saying Scotland will balance the books by making cuts bigger than the tories are making.

FFS.

 

As I read it, we were specifically talking about your post around Scotland`s economic performance and revenues versus the UK average.

I think you are missing the point, deliberately or otherwise. 

[eFestivals]

2 minutes ago, comfortablynumb1910 said:

As I read it, we were specifically talking about your post around Scotland`s economic performance and revenues versus the UK average.

I think you are missing the point, deliberately or otherwise. 

What point do you think I'm missing, comfy? 

You'll have to explain it in detail, so it can't be misunderstood.

Cos I understood what you said to mean there's some sort of magic with indy, that makes govt revenues magically increase without tax rises to make them increase, &/or spending to magically decrease without spending (and so services) being cut.

So you'll have to explain the magic, or you'll have to tell me how tax rises &/or cuts will cover the missing £9Bn that Barnett currently covers.

[Comfy Bean]

3 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

What point do you think I'm missing, comfy? 

You'll have to explain it in detail, so it can't be misunderstood.

 

 

7 hours ago, LJS said:

 

You & Chokka are obsessed with the deficit gap. this is absolutely irrelevant once we become independent.

 

 

 

29 minutes ago, comfortablynumb1910 said:

Good point well made.

Neil do you agree or atleast see the point that LJS is making here ?

Many up here are not as obsessed with England as some folks think 

More relevant to compare our economy with somewhere of similar size, population, geography etc.

 

 

9 minutes ago, comfortablynumb1910 said:

As I read it, we were specifically talking about your post around Scotland`s economic performance and revenues versus the UK average.

I think you are missing the point, deliberately or otherwise. 

Neil, I have afforded you the courtesy of taking your request at face value. If Scotland becomes indy do you think it`s performance should be compared with England ( incl London ), Wales, Latvia, Greece, Russia or Brazil ? 

I have already stated that I respond to LJS`s point as I read it. You responded to me by saying " FFS  "

Hopefully LJS will correct me if I have in fact misunderstood the point he was making but I thought it made sense and have quoted my response above.

One of us is missing the point, deliberately or otherwise. If you move the goal posts here then I have wasted my time replying to your question. If I have got the wrong end of the stick with LJS`s point then fair enough.

[eFestivals]

14 minutes ago, comfortablynumb1910 said:

the deficit gap. this is absolutely irrelevant once we become independent.

Why does adding up revenues and subtracting spending to find out what the balance is - a deficit or a surplus - become irrelevant if Scotland is indy?

You'll have to tell me how it becomes irrelevant to do that process, comfy, and/or how adding up and taking away works differently under independence.

 

Edited November 25, 2016 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

15 minutes ago, comfortablynumb1910 said:

Neil, I have afforded you the courtesy of taking your request at face value. If Scotland becomes indy do you think it`s performance should be compared with England ( incl London ), Wales, Latvia, Greece, Russia or Brazil ? 

Not necessarily, no. Scotland can be quite happily richer or poorer without reference to elsewhere.

If the richer or poorer isn't of interest to Scotland, it's easy to lay out an economic plan. Make £9bn of cuts, and iScotland will have a workable and sustainable economy.

But people in Scotland don't want to be £9Bn poorer, so snippers are trying to come up with circumstances for how they won't be that £9bn poorer.

What have you missed about it all being about the money, comfy?

Edited November 25, 2016 by eFestivals

[Comfy Bean]

12 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

Not necessarily, no. Scotland can be quite happily richer or poorer without reference to elsewhere.

 

Exactly this