The Dirty Independence Question

[LJS]

22 hours ago, eFestivals said:

Clegg said some words, but didn't say what he was specifically talking about.

And Scotland *VERY CLEARLY IS* a tory spending priority, because it's not getting the cuts that the rest of the UK is getting.

The one MP part is just your diversion from what the tories have achieved via YOUR vote - their eternal power, for the moment at least.

 

Let's just make up some bollocks and claim that's what Clegg meant.

Oh, too late, you already have.

 

PMSL.

For things to play out like that you'd firstly need an electorate who understood their interests.

That would be an electorate who didn't blame the tories for the non-existent 'austerity' in Scotland, and instead held the SNP to account for the cuts the SNP and not the tories are making.

 

You've just made it up, again.

The tories advantage is maintained by supporting the SNP, exactly as they've been doing.

Could you explain exactly how the Tories are supporting the SNP?

[eFestivals]

5 minutes ago, LJS said:

Could you explain exactly how the Tories are supporting the SNP?

by absolving them from the cuts that rest of the UK is having.

 

Edited January 6, 2017 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

does anyone still want to argue that Sturgeon hasn't stepped back from her earlier threats of an indyref?

Not that it wasn't already clear to anyone who was properly listening - what she'd been saying had changed - but now she's been much more explicit about it.

She said she'd do the best for scotland. She says the best for scotland is indy (it's written in black & white in her brexit-alternative doc from last month) ... but now she's saying that brexit is best for Scotland by agreeing to go along with brexit (tho admittedly only under certain conditions).

Now, who was it that had said she was on a path where she'd have to eventually say that brexit was best for Scotland? :P

It's feckin' easy if you actually pay attention. :)

Sturgeon knows indy is a dead duck. All it needs now is for her fan club to wake up to the same.

[LJS]

1 hour ago, eFestivals said:

does anyone still want to argue that Sturgeon hasn't stepped back from her earlier threats of an indyref?

Only if we remain in the single market. 

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Not that it wasn't already clear to anyone who was properly listening - what she'd been saying had changed - but now she's been much more explicit about it.

Depends on whether you think a soft brexit with the UK remaining in the single market is likely. 

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She said she'd do the best for scotland. She says the best for scotland is indy

And she said it again today.

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(it's written in black & white in her brexit-alternative doc from last month) ... but now she's saying that brexit is best for Scotland by agreeing to go along with brexit (tho admittedly only under certain conditions).

Or alternatively, she is trying to achieve an outcome where the UK remains in the single market, making post Indy trade with the rUK easier.

Meanwhile putting the pressure onto May to come up with a brexit that keeps the union together.

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Now, who was it that had said she was on a path where she'd have to eventually say that brexit was best for Scotland?

I don't know but it must be an idiot because she hasn't said that.

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It's feckin' easy if you actually pay attention.

Sturgeon knows indy is a dead duck. All it needs now is for her fan club to wake up to the same.

Indy is a very live duck.

[eFestivals]

21 minutes ago, LJS said:

Only if we remain in the single market. 

which is the proof that she's changed her threat.

The threat - spoken the day after the vote, as well as often before the vote, was of an indyref if the UK left the EU - and NOT if the UK left the single market.

I've been pointing this out for months, ever since she changed to leaving the single market.

 

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Depends on whether you think a soft brexit with the UK remaining in the single market is likely. 

Who knows? None of us do.

Sturgeon is desperately hoping that's what happens, so she can claim that she caused that outcome.

Cos she desperately doesn't want an indyref, because she knows that she'll lose unless something unexpected happens to change that outcome.

 

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And she said it again today.

Yep, she said again today the different thing from what she said the day after the vote.

The different thing which proves she's running scared.

 

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Or alternatively, she is trying to achieve an outcome where the UK remains in the single market, making post Indy trade with the rUK easier.

She is, but to save her own arse.

It's now fuck all to do with scotland as far as she's concerned, and everything about her trying to save herself.

With free-passers like you on her side maybe she's over-estimating the threat to her career, but then again there's plenty of peeps who vote SNP who pay attention and keep their brains turned on.

 

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Meanwhile putting the pressure onto May to come up with a brexit that keeps the union together.

PMSL

There's only the threat of it breaking up if she felt she could win an indyref. No one thinks she can, and definitely not her.

 

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I don't know but it must be an idiot because she hasn't said that.

She said she'd do the best for scotland. She sa

id - lress than a month ago - that the best for scotland is indy.

And now she recommended a form of brexit - which from what she's said before MUST be the best for Scotland..

She's said it.

You're just fucking stupid. You'd deny your wife if you thought it would get you indy.

 

Quote

Indy is a very live duck.

PMSL

The trend of the polls has been downwards ever since Sept 2014. 

And there's still no currency, and no fix for the missing £9Bn. There's not even fast EU entry, or did you miss what Spain said when they called out the SNP big-gob MEP 's bullshit for what it was?

You might be dick enough to vote your family poorer, but too many Scots aren't as daft.

Edited January 6, 2017 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

Teresa May and Nicola Sturgeon are two of a kind.

1. Both are suggesting an impossible deal can be got from the union they want out of.

(Not so much with what NS said today, but in her doc last month)

2. And both are happy to throw their country off a cliff rather than do the sane thing of sticking with how things are currently.

In general Sturgeon is a smart operator, but she's fucked up here. That's in part due to fairly reasonable expectations of a stronger public reaction to brexit, but also...

As soon as you're driven by ideology and not practicality, the best option can be ruled out simply by the pursuit of that ideology. And that's Sturgeon.

As I said was happening, she's cornered herself and her only possible salvation can come from the hand of another now, it's out of her control. 

Either she gets lucky because May decides to stay in the single market (or perhaps even the EU), or they'll be some other miracle which will see support for Indy increase.

(It would be a miracle because no one is saying now where that extra support might come from. )

Otherwise it's game over for her career, and for Indy too. She'll have cried wolf too many times, and two indyref losses in quick succession will be the end of it.

(She might have enough free passers to stay on if she wanted to, but she won't want to)

[LJS]

2 hours ago, eFestivals said:

which is the proof that she's changed her threat.

The threat - spoken the day after the vote, as well as often before the vote, was of an indyref if the UK left the EU - and NOT if the UK left the single market.

I've been pointing this out for months, ever since she changed to leaving the single market.

We know your super powers enable you to see inside Nicola's tiny wee Dwarf head & tread her every thoughts. The rest of us just have to guess. I think Nicola understands what many of her more gung-ho supporters fail to grasp/: that she has to persuade a significant number of Scots to change their minds for her to win a second indy-ref. She knows that appearing opportunistic is not the way to achieve that. I also think she realises that Scotland's path to independence will be easier if the UK is in the single market. 

2 hours ago, eFestivals said:

 

Who knows? None of us do.

Sturgeon is desperately hoping that's what happens, so she can claim that she caused that outcome.

Cos she desperately doesn't want an indyref, because she knows that she'll lose unless something unexpected happens to change that outcome.

Again your special powers have come to the fore. I think Nicola has a number of motivations and. I think she is genuinely committed to both Scottish Indy & EU membership. I think it is perfectly likely that the position she has taken gives the best chance of achieving both.

2 hours ago, eFestivals said:

 

Yep, she said again today the different thing from what she said the day after the vote.

The different thing which proves she's running scared.

Politician changes emphasis shock! How pragmatic!

2 hours ago, eFestivals said:

 

She is, but to save her own arse.

t's now fuck all to do with scotland as far as she's concerned, and everything about her trying to save herself.

With free-passers like you on her side maybe she's over-estimating the threat to her career, but then again there's plenty of peeps who vote SNP who pay attention and keep their brains turned on.

I just don't see Nicola as that sort of egotistical politician. Its only my opinion & you are quite entitled to disagree.

2 hours ago, eFestivals said:

 

PMSL 

There's only the threat of it breaking up if she felt she could win an indyref. No one thinks she can, and definitely not her.

Lots of people think we can - I'm one of them. I believe Nicola is too but she knows that she has to persuade those who voted no in 2014 and rushing headlong to indyref2 at the first opportunity is not the way to do it.

2 hours ago, eFestivals said:

 

She said she'd do the best for scotland. She said - lress than a month ago - that the best for scotland is indy.

And she said it again today.

2 hours ago, eFestivals said:

And now she recommended a form of brexit - which from what she's said before MUST be the best for Scotland..

she hasn't "recommended" any form of Brexit. She couldn't have made it clearer that she opposes Brexit. You could see her position as a sort of harm reduction programme. 

2 hours ago, eFestivals said:

She's said it.

You're just fucking stupid. You'd deny your wife if you thought it would get you indy. 

New year. Same old pathetic juvenile insults. 

2 hours ago, eFestivals said:

 

PMSL 

New year same old incontinence

2 hours ago, eFestivals said:

The trend of the polls has been downwards ever since Sept 2014. 

looks pretty flat to me

Bar

Line

Table

• Exportpercentage30 Oct 201405 Nov 201413 Nov 201411 Dec 201418 Dec 201414 Jan 201502 Feb 201517 Feb 201512 Mar 201517 Mar 201519 Mar 201531 Mar 201502 Apr 201509 Apr 201523 Apr 201501 May 201506 May 201521 May 201503 Jul 201507 Jul 201530 Aug 201501 Sep 201510 Sep 201510 Sep 201510 Sep 201513 Oct 201512 Nov 201512 Jan 201614 Jan 201604 Feb 201607 Feb 201616 Feb 201629 Feb 201609 Mar 201617 Mar 201611 Apr 201615 Apr 201620 Apr 201628 Apr 201604 May 2016YesNo0255075

   
  Insert 'Don't Know' and 'Refused' responses

 

2 hours ago, eFestivals said:

And there's still no currency,

We have a currency. It's called the pound. If & when we have another indyref we will need proposals for the currency an iScotland will use.  

2 hours ago, eFestivals said:

and no fix for the missing £9Bn.

There is no missing £9bn. there is a notional deficit & we can all argue about its size ande no indyref will be won without a more persuasive economic case than was made in 2014.

2 hours ago, eFestivals said:

There's not even fast EU entry, or did you miss what Spain said when they called out the SNP big-gob MEP 's bullshit for what it was?

Yeah, I missed that. Lots of people have said lots of things. Some positive some negative. A lot more positive than last time round.

2 hours ago, eFestivals said:

You might be dick enough to vote your family poorer, but too many Scots aren't as daft.

And one day you may be as mature as my children who don't use gratuitous insults in place of reasoned argument.

 

[Comfy Bean]

37 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

As I said was happening, she's cornered herself and her only possible salvation can come from the hand of another now, it's out of her control. 

Either she gets lucky because May decides to stay in the single market (or perhaps even the EU), or they'll be some other miracle which will see support for Indy increase.

(It would be a miracle because no one is saying now where that extra support might come from. )

Otherwise it's game over for her career, and for Indy too. She'll have cried wolf too many times, and two indyref losses in quick succession will be the end of it.

(She might have enough free passers to stay on if she wanted to, but she won't want to)

I like the way you think NS has accidentally cornered herself. I think she is playing her hand pretty well and if plenty believe that she has cornered herself and put all her efforts into ALL of us staying in the single market then what else can she do if the Tories refuse to listen. It`s almost as if..............

Anywayz, youve made most of the above points already. Here is my response to you from 19th December in the EU thread. Apols as I don`t know how to do cross thread quotes....

" I think Sturgeons first choice will be for all of us to stay in the single market. Not sure who would describe that as a stirring of resentment lol.

For some it does seem to be all about hatred and resentment.

As first minister of Scotland I expect she will be looking to best represent her country where all 32 regions voted to remain.

If her first option is for us all to stay in the single market then it's over to May.

If the Tories laugh that off as Hammond has indicated then Sturgeon, I would imagine, will have a plan b.

I think another Indy vote will be plan c or d.

May has said she will be taking in to account how Scotland voted so maybe she will. "

 

 

Here`s what NS said today :

She said: "We want to try to work with others across the UK, across the political spectrum, to try to keep the UK in the single market."

Ms Sturgeon said if that could not be done then her government had put forward a plan to UK ministers detailing how Scotland could retain membership of the single market, that includes devolving powers over areas including immigration and employment law to Holyrood.

She added: "I think there's a lot of consensus starting to build around some of those additional powers, for example around immigration.

"We've put forward very detailed plans about how we avoid a hard Brexit and the reason it's important to avoid a hard Brexit, let's not forget, is because that will have a devastating impact on our economy and on jobs.

"So I'm in a sense willing to put aside my preferred option of independence in the EU to see if we can explore a consensus and compromise option."

 

[Comfy Bean]

Today from John Curtis....I personally find myself siding with some of his views rather than Neil`s - she`ll die a failure - throw her country off a cliff - right wing media type drivel 

 

John Curtice, a professor of politics at Strathclyde University, told the BBC's World at One programme that Ms Sturgeon had changed her tone, if not her position on Brexit.

He said: "She has indicated since 23 June that should her vision of Brexit be realised, at least for Scotland, then she wouldn't necessarily hold the [independence] referendum.

"Today has seen the tone of being willing to say 'the referendum may not happen' is perhaps a bit more explicit. But what she wasn't asked is what would happen if she were not to get the version of Brexit she is looking for - given how soft the version of Brexit she's looking for is, there must be a pretty high probability that she won't get what she wants."

Mr Curtice added that with current polling "not a million miles away" from the result of the 2014 independence vote, "holding a second independence referendum any time soon would represent a very significant gamble as far as Nicola Sturgeon is concerned."

The Conservatives, Labour and the Lib Dems have all spoken out against a second independence vote, while the Greens are in favour of one.

Edited January 6, 2017 by comfortablynumb1910

[eFestivals]

12 hours ago, LJS said:

We know your super powers enable you to see inside Nicola's tiny wee Dwarf head & tread her every thoughts. The rest of us just have to guess.

No, you just have to pay attention and listen.

Go and find what Sturgeon said the day after the vote and compare it with what she said yesterday (and has been saying since about mid-July).

She's changed from "indyref if UK leave the EU" to "indyref if out of single market".

There's no one as fact-averse as a free-passing snipper.

 

[eFestivals]

12 hours ago, LJS said:

Politician changes emphasis shock! How pragmatic!

PMSL

You'll have to tell me how doing something (in her own words) that's worse for Scotland than indy is being pragmatic.

Pragmatism is about doing the best thing even when it disagrees with your prejudices. Sturgeon is doing the exact opposite to that, because she's saying that indy is the best thing.

So she's doing a worse thing even tho it disagrees with her prejudices. Care to tell me how that's making Scotland great again?

Edited January 7, 2017 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

12 hours ago, LJS said:

Lots of people think we can - I'm one of them.

so when the UK has left the EU and Sturgeon still hasn't called an indyref I'll look forwards to you admission of being wrong.

[eFestivals]

12 hours ago, LJS said:

And she said it again today.

No, she said she'd not be doing what she says is the best thing.

What she says is the best thing 9is clearly stated in her doc from last month.

he's not making Scotland great again, not even in her own mind... tho she definitely is as far as the mindless are concerned. You've just proven it.

[eFestivals]

12 hours ago, LJS said:

she hasn't "recommended" any form of Brexit. She couldn't have made it clearer that she opposes Brexit. You could see her position as a sort of harm reduction programme. 

she said she'd do what is best for Scotland.

And then says she'll do brexit.

Either you or her are a liar. The words you say there put alongside her own claim of doing the best proves it. 

Never mind, eh.

 

[eFestivals]

12 hours ago, LJS said:

looks pretty flat to me

yep, almost flat, but VERY DEFINITELY downwards.

The average of the last six polls (a standard measure for a polling average) is only downwards for over 2 years.

[eFestivals]

12 hours ago, LJS said:

We have a currency. It's called the pound. If & when we have another indyref we will need proposals for the currency an iScotland will use.  

I look forwards to seeing them.

The options are:-

1. the pound with no CU. bye bye Scotland's financial sector (its biggest industry, that needs a lender of last resort) hello poverty.

2. a Scottish currency. Bye bye public spending, hello poverty.

3. someone else's currency. bye bye Scotland's financial sector (its biggest industry, that needs a lender of last resort) hello poverty..

All the options are worse that the current set-up.

 

12 hours ago, LJS said:

There is no missing £9bn. there is a notional deficit & we can all argue about its size ande no indyref will be won without a more persuasive economic case than was made in 2014.

A notional deficit that becomes a real deficit if Scotland tries to self-fund.

You say "GERS only says how it is in the UK". Reality says that the deficit position only changes if Scottish spending changes (is cut).

Feel free to tell us all what public spending will be cut.

 

12 hours ago, LJS said:

Yeah, I missed that. Lots of people have said lots of things. Some positive some negative. A lot more positive than last time round.

Go look it up.

Spain are mighty pissed off at the SNP for making false claims of their support.

Spain have made clear - yet again - that they'll be no 'parking', they'll be no special deal of fast entry, they'll be nothing but standard EU membership application and process, putting iScotland at the back of the EU entry queue with 35 chapters to complete (Scotland currently meets less than 10 of them).

 

12 hours ago, LJS said:

And one day you may be as mature as my children who don't use gratuitous insults in place of reasoned argument.

You don't do reasoned argument, you do fact denial, myth, and buster.

Like when you say (now) that GERS doesn't count for indy..... Cos that's not what you were saying when Salmond & Sturgeon called it authoritative and based all of Scotland's future on it.

Then, to you, it was a perfect plan, guaranteed to be true (tho history since has shown it wasn't), and nothing of GERS was disputed. I wonder how come you know more than the leaders whose perfection you laud.

 

 

 

 

[eFestivals]

12 hours ago, comfortablynumb1910 said:

I like the way you think NS has accidentally cornered herself.

the fact that she has is proven by having shifted position.
(from "indyref if out of EU" to "indyref if our of single market")

FFS.

Unless you're going to tell me how being out of the EU is "doing the best for Scotland"? 

[eFestivals]

12 hours ago, comfortablynumb1910 said:

I think she is playing her hand pretty well

If she wins an indyref before March 2019, she'#s played it perfectly.

Anything else and she's failed to the full extent.

[eFestivals]

12 hours ago, comfortablynumb1910 said:

Here is my response to you from 19th December in the EU thread. Apols as I don`t know how to do cross thread quotes....

" I think Sturgeons first choice will be for all of us to stay in the single market. Not sure who would describe that as a stirring of resentment lol.

Sturgeon's first choice is stated in black and white in that doc she published last month.

And that first choice is NOT staying in the single market. It says clearly that indy is best.

Can't you fucking read? 

[eFestivals]

12 hours ago, comfortablynumb1910 said:

As first minister of Scotland I expect she will be looking to best represent her country where all 32 regions voted to remain.

she has no role representing foriegn policy. :rolleyes:

She's pretending that Scotland is already sovereign, and then says its outrageous that it isn't.

It's only an outrage that it isn't if Scotland wants to be independent. it doesn't.

Edited January 7, 2017 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

12 hours ago, comfortablynumb1910 said:

If her first option is for us all to stay in the single market then it's over to May.

http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0051/00512073.pdf

Page 7

Quote

I said I would explore – not just my preferred option of independence – but all options to protect Scotland’s place in, and relationship with, Europe.

Edited January 7, 2017 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

12 hours ago, comfortablynumb1910 said:

If the Tories laugh that off as Hammond has indicated then Sturgeon, I would imagine, will have a plan b.

I think another Indy vote will be plan c or d.

May has said she will be taking in to account how Scotland voted so maybe she will. "

fuck me, did you spend yesterday on the moon?

She made clear yesterday that plan b is an indyref.

But even you know she's lying about that, because you know she can't win with plan b, same as she does.

never mind, eh?

[eFestivals]

12 hours ago, comfortablynumb1910 said:

Here`s what NS said today :

She said: "We want to try to work with others across the UK, across the political spectrum, to try to keep the UK in the single market."

Ms Sturgeon said if that could not be done then her government had put forward a plan to UK ministers detailing how Scotland could retain membership of the single market, that includes devolving powers over areas including immigration and employment law to Holyrood.

She added: "I think there's a lot of consensus starting to build around some of those additional powers, for example around immigration.

"We've put forward very detailed plans about how we avoid a hard Brexit and the reason it's important to avoid a hard Brexit, let's not forget, is because that will have a devastating impact on our economy and on jobs.

"So I'm in a sense willing to put aside my preferred option of independence in the EU to see if we can explore a consensus and compromise option."

Her plan doesn't keep Scotland in the EU single market, and doesn't keep Scotland in the UK single market either.

It might help if you actually bothered to read her plan.

Instead of relying on your fantasies to make up any old bollocks and pretend it's true.

Those "very detailed plans" are more than a bit thin on detail about the effects onto Scotland of leaving the UK single market. You'd know that if you read it (when you've had your brain back from the menders is the better time to read it).

Her plan is just the same mining for grievance as she always does.

Edited January 7, 2017 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

12 hours ago, comfortablynumb1910 said:

Today from John Curtis....I personally find myself siding with some of his views rather than Neil`s - she`ll die a failure - throw her country off a cliff - right wing media type drivel 

 

John Curtice, a professor of politics at Strathclyde University, told the BBC's World at One programme that Ms Sturgeon had changed her tone, if not her position on Brexit.

He said: "She has indicated since 23 June that should her vision of Brexit be realised, at least for Scotland, then she wouldn't necessarily hold the [independence] referendum.

"Today has seen the tone of being willing to say 'the referendum may not happen' is perhaps a bit more explicit. But what she wasn't asked is what would happen if she were not to get the version of Brexit she is looking for - given how soft the version of Brexit she's looking for is, there must be a pretty high probability that she won't get what she wants."

Mr Curtice added that with current polling "not a million miles away" from the result of the 2014 independence vote, "holding a second independence referendum any time soon would represent a very significant gamble as far as Nicola Sturgeon is concerned."

The Conservatives, Labour and the Lib Dems have all spoken out against a second independence vote, while the Greens are in favour of one.

I love how you say you agree with Curtis more than me, when Curtis says Sturgeon has changed her tune and I say Sturgeon has changed her tune - and you and LJS deny that she has.

Sturgeon can do what she's threatened, and hold an indyref before the UK has exited the EU. She can, but she knows she'd lose (same as you do comfy).

Sturgeon can do the indyref afterwards when the shit has/might have hit the fan, but that would be Scotland leaving the UK single market while lso being outside of the EU. She can, but that'll be lost by an even bigger margin.

There's only losing on the horizon - current polling "not a million miles away" from the result of the 2014 independence vote (which, i'll remind you, is losing) - which is why she's trying to find a way of not having an indyref while also not making herself look stupid.

If there's to be any salvation for her career, it's only tories in Westminster who can save her.

 

Edited January 7, 2017 by eFestivals

[Comfy Bean]

Neil, I quoted Curtis yesterday as he explains the specific question Sturgeon was asked. This allows her widely reported reply to be kept in context.

Do you think we are heading for a soft brexit that will see us all staying in the single market?

If you don't, then I suspect you agree with Sturgeon.

Sturgeon is playing the long game here in my opinion. You underestimate her if you think she has accidentally backed herself into a corner. 

You may be right that part of the reason for the long game is at this moment, she doesn't think she has the numbers. Being perceived as rushing headlong at another ref as soon as possible will almost certainly mean she doesn't have the numbers in my opinion.

Another factor is our local elections being on the horizon I think where the tories will campaign against Indy ref 2.

NS has made her play. We want to stay in the single market. Indy ref is currently off the table. It's over to May and the tories to deliver what we want.

In the meantime, let's take care of business at the local council elections. I suspect after they are done and May takes us down a hard brexit then Indy ref comes back onto the table. Probably with the snp running all our biggest councils including Glasgow.

My view remains that having the next Indy ref after the tories win the next general election would be best. By which time we will be seeing the true effects of brexit.

Other views are available of course :-)